The purpose of the present study is to investigate simultaneously pre-earthquake ionospheric and atmospheric disturbances by the application of different methodologies, with the ultimate aim to detect their possible link with the impending seismic event. Three large earthquakes in Mexico are selected (8.2 Mw, 7.1 Mw and 6.6 Mw during 8 and 19 September 2017 and 21 January 2016 respectively), while ionospheric variations during the entire year 2017 prior to 37 earthquakes are also examined. In particular, Total Electron Content (TEC) retrieved from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) networks and Atmospheric Chemical Potential (ACP) variations extracted from an atmospheric model are analyzed by performing statistical and spectral analysis on TEC measurements with the aid of Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs), Ionospheric Precursor Mask (IPM) methodology and time series and regional maps of ACP. It is found that both large and short scale ionospheric anomalies occurring from few hours to a few days prior to the seismic events may be linked to the forthcoming events and most of them are nearly concurrent with atmospheric anomalies happening during the same day. This analysis also highlights that even in low-latitude areas it is possible to discern pre-earthquake ionospheric disturbances possibly linked with the imminent seismic events.

The ionosphere is a dynamic layer which generally changes according to radiation emitted by the sun, the movement of the earth around the sun, and sunspot activity. Variations can generally be categorized as regular or irregular variations. Both types of variation have a huge effect on radio wave propagation. In this study, we have focused on the seasonal variation effect, which is one of the regular forms of variation in terms of the ionosphere. We examined the seasonal variation over the ZONG station in Turkey for the year 2014. Our analysis results and IRI-2012 present different ideas about ionospheric activity. According to our analysed results, the standard deviation reached a maximum value in April 2014. However, the maximum standard deviation obtained from IRI-2012 was seen in February 2014. Furthermore, it is clear that IRI-2012 underestimated the VTEC values when compared to our results for all the months analysed. The main source of difference between the two models is the IRI-2012 topside ionospheric representation. IRI-2012 VTEC has been produced as a result of the integration of an electron density profile within altitudinal limits of 60–2000 km. In other words, the main problem with regard to the IRI-2012 VTEC representation is not being situated in the plasmaspheric part of the ionosphere. Therefore we propose that the plasmaspheric part should be taken into account to calculate the correct TEC values in mid-latitude regions, and we note that IRI-2012 does not supply precise TEC values for use in ionospheric studies.

Many scientists from different disciplines have studied earthquakes for many years. As a result of these studies, it has been proposed that some changes take place in the ionosphere layer before, during or after earthquakes, and that the ionosphere should be monitored in earthquake prediction studies. This study investigates the changes in the ionosphere created by the earthquake with a magnitude of M_w=7.2 in the northwest of Lake Erçek, which is located to the north of the province of Van in Turkey on 23 October 2011 and at 13:41 local time (−3 UT) with the epicenter of 38.75^∘ N, 43.36^∘ E using the TEC values obtained by the global ionosphere models (GIMs) created by IONOLAB-TEC and CODE. In order to see whether the ionospheric changes obtained by the study in question were caused by the earthquake or not, the ionospheric conditions were studied by utilizing indices providing information on solar and geomagnetic activities (F10.7 cm, Kp, Dst). One of the results of the statistical test of the TEC values obtained from both models is positive and negative anomalies obtained for the times before, on the day of and after the earthquake, and the reasons for these anomalies are discussed in detail in the last section of the study. As the ionospheric conditions on the analyzed days were highly variable, it was thought that the anomalies were caused by geomagnetic effects, solar activity and the earthquake.