Knowledge of hydrologic connectivity is important to grasp the hydrological response at a basin scale, particularly as changes in connectivity can have a negative effect on the environment. In the context of a changing climate, being able to predict how changes in connectivity will affect runoff and sediment transport is particularly relevant for land-use planning. Many studies on hydrology, geomorphology and climatology have been conducted in the Lake Tana Basin in Ethiopia, which is undergoing rapid development and significant environmental changes. This systematic literature review aims at assessing to what extent the hydrologic connectivity has been taken into account in such research, and to identify research gaps relevant to land and water management. On the Web of Science and Scopus databases, 135 scientific articles covering those topics were identified. Aspects of hydrologic connectivity were mostly implicitly taken into account based on process-based, statistical and descriptive models. Amongst the drivers of changing connectivity, the climate was covered by a large majority of publications (64%). Components of structural hydrologic connectivity were accounted for by considering geomorphology (54%) and soils (47%), and to a lesser extent, hydrography (16%) and geology (12%). Components of functional connectivity were covered by looking at surface water fluxes (61%), sediment fluxes (18%) and subsurface water fluxes (13%). While numerous studies of the Lake Tana Basin accounted for the hydrologic connectivity implicitly, these related predominantly to functional components. The structural components are given less attention, while in the context of a changing climate, better insights into their influence on the hydrologic seem most relevant. Better knowledge of the static aspect of connectivity is particularly important for targeting appropriate soil and water conservation strategies. Being able to explicitly assess the ‘structural connectivity’ is therefore of direct relevance for land management and land-use policy.

Alterations in the hydrological cycle due to climate change are one of the key threats to the future accessibility of natural resources. This study used 12 GCM climate models from CMIP6 to evaluate future climate change scenarios by applying model performance measures and trend analysis in Kobo Valley, Ethiopia. The models were ranked based on their ability to analyze the historical datasets. The result of this study showed that the outputs of the FIO-ESM-2-0 CIMP6 model had a good overall ranking for both precipitation and temperature. After bias correction of the model-based projections with the observed data, the average annual precipitation in the average scenario (SSP2-4.5) decreased by 4.4% and 13% in 2054 and 2084, respectively. Similarly, in the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5), by the end of 2054 and 2084, decreases of 4% and 12.8%, respectively, were predicted. The average annual maximum temperature under the SSP2-4.5 scenario increased by 1.5 °C in 2054 and by 2.1 °C in 2084. The average annual maximum temperature under the worst-case (SSP5-8.5) scenario increased by 1.7 °C in 2054 and by 3.2 °C in 2084. In the middle scenario (SSP4.5), the average annual minimum temperature increased by 2.2 °C in 2054 and by 3 °C in 2084. The average annual minimum temperature under the worst-case (SSP5-8.5) scenario increased by 2.6 °C in 2054 and by 4.3 °C in 2084. The seasonal variability in precipitation in the studied valley will decrease in the winter and increase in the summer. A decrease in precipitation combined with an increase in temperature will strengthen the risk of drought events in the future.