Natural history studies have identified factors that predict evolution to multiple sclerosis or risk of disability accumulation over time. Although these studies are based on large multicentre cohorts with long follow-ups, they have limitations such as lack of standardized protocols, a retrospective data collection or lack of a systematic magnetic resonance imaging acquisition and analysis protocol, often resulting in failure to take magnetic resonance and oligoclonal bands into account as joint covariates in the prediction models. To overcome some of these limitations, the aim of our study was to identify and stratify baseline demographic, clinical, radiological and biological characteristics that might predict multiple sclerosis development and disability accumulation using a multivariate approach based on a large prospective cohort of patients with clinically isolated syndromes. From 1995 to 2013, 1058 patients with clinically isolated syndromes were included. We evaluated the influence of baseline prognostic factors on the risk for developing clinically definite multiple sclerosis, McDonald multiple sclerosis, and disability accumulation (Expanded Disability Status Scale score of 3.0) based on univariate (hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) and multivariate (adjusted hazard ratio with 95% confidence intervals) Cox regression models. We ultimately included 1015 patients followed for a mean of 81 (standard deviation = 57) months. Female/male ratio was 2.1. Females exhibited a similar risk of conversion to multiple sclerosis and of disability accumulation compared to males. Each younger decade at onset was associated with a greater risk of conversion to multiple sclerosis and with a protective effect on disability. Patients with optic neuritis had a lower risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [hazard ratio 0.6 (0.5–0.8)] and disability progression [hazard ratio 0.5 (0.3–0.8)]; however, this protective effect remained marginal only for disability [adjusted hazard ratio 0.6 (0.4–1.0)] in adjusted models. The presence of oligoclonal bands increased the risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 1.3 (1.0–1.8)] and of disability [adjusted hazard ratio 2.0 (1.2–3.6)] independently of other factors. The presence of 10 or more brain lesions on magnetic resonance increased the risk of clinically definite multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 11.3 (6.7–19.3)] and disability [adjusted hazard ratio 2.9 (1.4–6.0)]. Disease-modifying treatment before the second attack reduced the risk of McDonald multiple sclerosis [adjusted hazard ratio 0.6 (0.4–0.9)] and disability accumulation [adjusted hazard ratio 0.5 (0.3–0.9)]. We conclude that the demographic and topographic characteristics are low-impact prognostic factors, the presence of oligoclonal bands is a medium-impact prognostic factor, and the number of lesions on brain magnetic resonance is a high-impact prognostic factor.

Objective: We aimed to report the frequency and implications of antibodies to myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG-ab) in adults with demyelinating syndromes suspicious for neuromyelitis optica (NMO). Methods: Samples from 174 patients (48 NMO, 84 longitudinally extensive myelitis (LETM), 39 optic neuritis (ON), and three acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) who presented initially with isolated LETM) were retrospectively examined for AQP4-ab and MOG-ab using cell-based assays. Results: MOG-ab were found in 17 (9.8%) patients, AQP4-ab in 59 (34%), and both antibodies in two (1.1%). Among the 17 patients with MOG-ab alone, seven (41%) had ON, five (29%) LETM, four (24%) NMO, and one (6%) ADEM. Compared with patients with AQP4-ab, those with MOG-ab were significantly younger (median: 27 vs. 40.5 years), without female predominance (53% vs. 90%), and the clinical course was more frequently monophasic (41% vs. 7%) with a benign outcome (median Expanded Disability Status Scale: 1.5 vs. 4.0). In eight patients with paired serum-cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples, five had MOG-ab in both samples and three only in serum. Antibody titres did not differ among clinical phenotypes or disease course. MOG-ab remained detectable in 12/14 patients (median follow-up: 23 months) without correlation between titres’ evolution and outcome. Conclusion: MOG-ab identify a subgroup of adult patients with NMO, LETM and ON that have better outcome than those associated with AQP4-ab. MOG-ab are more frequently detected in serum than CSF and the follow-up of titres does not correlate with outcome.

Background and Objectives People with multiple sclerosis (MS) are a vulnerable group for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), particularly those taking immunosuppressive disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). We examined the characteristics of COVID-19 severity in an international sample of people with MS. Methods Data from 12 data sources in 28 countries were aggregated (sources could include patients from 1–12 countries). Demographic (age, sex), clinical (MS phenotype, disability), and DMT (untreated, alemtuzumab, cladribine, dimethyl fumarate, glatiramer acetate, interferon, natalizumab, ocrelizumab, rituximab, siponimod, other DMTs) covariates were queried, along with COVID-19 severity outcomes, hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, need for artificial ventilation, and death. Characteristics of outcomes were assessed in patients with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, MS phenotype, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score. Results Six hundred fifty-seven (28.1%) with suspected and 1,683 (61.9%) with confirmed COVID-19 were analyzed. Among suspected plus confirmed and confirmed-only COVID-19, 20.9% and 26.9% were hospitalized, 5.4% and 7.2% were admitted to ICU, 4.1% and 5.4% required artificial ventilation, and 3.2% and 3.9% died. Older age, progressive MS phenotype, and higher disability were associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes. Compared to dimethyl fumarate, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–2.41; aOR 2.43, 95% CI 1.48–4.02) and ICU admission (aOR 2.30, 95% CI 0.98–5.39; aOR 3.93, 95% CI 1.56–9.89), although only rituximab was associated with higher risk of artificial ventilation (aOR 4.00, 95% CI 1.54–10.39). Compared to pooled other DMTs, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalization (aOR 1.75, 95% CI 1.29–2.38; aOR 2.76, 95% CI 1.87–4.07) and ICU admission (aOR 2.55, 95% CI 1.49–4.36; aOR 4.32, 95% CI 2.27–8.23), but only rituximab was associated with artificial ventilation (aOR 6.15, 95% CI 3.09–12.27). Compared to natalizumab, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalization (aOR 1.86, 95% CI 1.13–3.07; aOR 2.88, 95% CI 1.68–4.92) and ICU admission (aOR 2.13, 95% CI 0.85–5.35; aOR 3.23, 95% CI 1.17–8.91), but only rituximab was associated with ventilation (aOR 5.52, 95% CI 1.71–17.84). Associations persisted on restriction to confirmed COVID-19 cases. No associations were observed between DMTs and death. Stratification by age, MS phenotype, and EDSS score found no indications that DMT associations with COVID-19 severity reflected differential DMT allocation by underlying COVID-19 severity. Discussion Using the largest cohort of people with MS and COVID-19 available, we demonstrated consistent associations of rituximab with increased risk of hospitalization, ICU admission, and need for artificial ventilation and of ocrelizumab with hospitalization and ICU admission. Despite the cross-sectional design of the study, the internal and external consistency of these results with prior studies suggests that rituximab/ocrelizumab use may be a risk factor for more severe COVID-19.

Chitinase 3-like 1 (CHI3L1) has been proposed as a biomarker associated with the conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis in patients with clinically isolated syndromes, based on the finding of increased cerebrospinal fluid CHI3L1 levels in clinically isolated syndrome patients who later converted to multiple sclerosis compared to those who remained as clinically isolated syndrome. Here, we aimed to validate CHI3L1 as a prognostic biomarker in a large cohort of patients with clinically isolated syndrome. This is a longitudinal cohort study of clinically isolated syndrome patients with clinical, magnetic resonance imaging, and cerebrospinal fluid data prospectively acquired. A total of 813 cerebrospinal fluid samples from patients with clinically isolated syndrome were recruited from 15 European multiple sclerosis centres. Cerebrospinal fluid CHI3L1 levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to investigate the association between cerebrospinal fluid CHI3L1 levels and time to conversion to multiple sclerosis and time to reach Expanded Disability Status Scale 3.0. CHI3L1 levels were higher in patients who converted to clinically definite multiple sclerosis compared to patients who continued as clinically isolated syndrome (P = 8.1 × 10⁻¹¹). In the Cox regression analysis, CHI3L1 levels were a risk factor for conversion to multiple sclerosis (hazard ratio = 1.7; P = 1.1 × 10⁻⁵ using Poser criteria; hazard ratio = 1.6; P = 3.7 × 10⁻⁶ for McDonald criteria) independent of other covariates such as brain magnetic resonance imaging abnormalities and presence of cerebrospinal fluid oligoclonal bands, and were the only significant independent risk factor associated with the development of disability (hazard ratio = 3.8; P = 2.5 × 10⁻⁸). High CHI3L1 levels were associated with shorter time to multiple sclerosis (P = 3.2 × 10⁻⁹ using Poser criteria; P = 5.6 × 10⁻¹¹ for McDonald criteria) and more rapid development of disability (P = 1.8 × 10⁻¹⁰). These findings validate cerebrospinal fluid CHI3L1 as a biomarker associated with the conversion to multiple sclerosis and development of disability and reinforce the prognostic role of CHI3L1 in patients with clinically isolated syndrome. We propose that determining cerebrospinal fluid chitinase 3-like 1 levels at the time of a clinically isolated syndrome event will help identify those patients with worse disease prognosis.

Background: Number of baseline lesions has been shown to predict future attacks and disability in clinically isolated syndromes (CIS). Objective: To investigate the role of baseline infratentorial lesions in long-term prognosis. Methods: Subjects were included in a prospective cohort of patients with CIS. Patients underwent brain MRI within 3 months after CIS onset. Number and location of lesions at baseline were prospectively studied. Retrospective scan analysis was conducted to specifically look at number and location of infratentorial lesions. We analyzed the time to a second attack and to reach EDSS 3.0. Results: We included 246 patients with CIS followed for a median of 7.7 years. Patients with infratentorial lesions had both a higher risk of conversion (71.4% vs 29.6%; hazard ratio [HR] 3.3; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2–4.8; p < 0.001) and of developing disability (32.5% vs 12.4%; HR 2.4; 95% CI 1.3–4.3; p = 0.003). Presence of at least one cerebellar lesion was associated with an increased risk of conversion (HR 2.4; 95% CI 1.3–4.5; p = 0.007). Presence of at least one brainstem lesion increased both the risk of conversion (HR 2.9; 95% CI 1.7–5.0; p < 0.001) and disability (HR 2.5; 95% CI 1.1–5.4; p = 0.026). Broken down into number of lesions, the presence of infratentorial lesions increased both the risk of conversion (83% vs 61%) (HR 22.3; 95% CI 9.7–51.1; p < 0.001) and of reaching EDSS 3.0 (40% vs 19%) (HR 3.2; 95% CI 1.3–7.4; p = 0.008) only in patients with 9 or more lesions. Conclusions: Presence of infratentorial lesions increases the risk for disability. Brainstem rather than cerebellar lesions may be responsible for poor prognosis.