This study explored the effects of landscape change on the provision of ecosystem services in a mountain area in northern Portugal, in particular the trade-offs and synergies between services in 2 categories: provisioning and regulating. Services were assessed for 1990 and 2006 and projected for 2020 under 3 scenarios, both biophysically and economically, based on modeling and published and unpublished statistics. We found that landscape changes in the 16-year period under study increased the total supply of ecosystem services, measured both biophysically and monetarily, but that agriculture production dropped dramatically. Both regulating and provisioning services increased in value, but only regulating services increased in biophysical units. Projections under 2 of our 3 scenarios indicated that both types of ecosystem services will continue to increase in both amount and monetary value and will function in synergy, whereas the third scenario predicted a decrease in services and trade-offs between the 2...

We assessed the effects of landscape change on the climate regulation ecosystem service in a mountain river basin of Portugal, through the quantification, valuation and mapping of carbon sequestration and storage. The analyses were based on land use and land cover (LULC) changes that took place between 1990 and 2006 and on expected changes defined by three LULC change scenarios for 2020. We used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model for scenario building and carbon assessment and valuation, and several modelling tools to assess past, current and future carbon in four different pools. Soil organic carbon data was obtained through an extensive sampling scheme across the entire study area. Recent (1990–2006) and expected landscape changes (2006–2020) affected considerably carbon sequestration and storage. Observed landscape changes generally promoted carbon sequestration and storage, and had a positive effect on the climate regulation ecosystem service, both biophysically and economically. Expected LULC changes further extend the capability of the landscape to increase carbon sequestration and storage in the near future. The carbon sequestered and stored in vegetation and soil contributes to avoid socio-economic damages from climate change, while increasing the economic value of particular LULC classes and the whole landscape. These results are essential to inform land planning, especially on how, where and when changes in landscapes may affect the provision of the climate regulation ecosystem service.