We investigate the asymptotic properties of the plug-in estimator for the Jeffreys divergence, the symmetric variant of the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence. This study focuses specifically on the divergence between discrete distributions. Traditionally, estimators rely on two independent samples corresponding to two distinct conditions. However, we propose a one-sample estimator where the condition results from a random event. We establish the estimator’s asymptotic unbiasedness (law of large numbers) and asymptotic normality (central limit theorem). Although the results are expected, the proofs require additional technical work due to the randomness of the conditions.

This study introduces a novel approach that integrates agricultural census data with remotely sensed time series to develop precise predictive models for paddy rice yield across various regions of Peru. By utilizing sparse regression and Elastic-Net regularization techniques, the study identifies causal relationships between key remotely sensed variables-such as NDVI, precipitation, and temperature-and agricultural yield. To further enhance prediction accuracy, the first- and second-order dynamic transformations (velocity and acceleration) of these variables are applied, capturing non-linear patterns and delayed effects on yield. The findings highlight the improved predictive performance when combining regularization techniques with climatic and geospatial variables, enabling more precise forecasts of yield variability. The results confirm the existence of causal relationships in the Granger sense, emphasizing the value of this methodology for strategic agricultural management. This contributes to more efficient and sustainable production in paddy rice cultivation.

In this paper we provide an asymptotic theory for the symmetric version of the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence. We define a estimator for this divergence and study its asymptotic properties. In particular, we prove Law of Large Numbers (LLN) and the convergence to the normal law in the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) using this estimator.