A recent JAMA viewpoint regarding fatalities In Italy associated with the COVID‐19 pandemic failed to mention obesity as one of the pre‐existing diseases associated with death.¹ It seems likely that the increased prevalence of obesity in Italy older adults compared to China may account for the differences in mortality between the two countries. Furthermore, the rising prevalence of obesity in the US and prior experience of the impact of obesity on mortality from H₁N₁ Influenza should increase the sensitivity of clinicians caring for patients with obesity and COVID‐19 to the need for aggressive treatment of such patients.

Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico on Sept 20, 2017, devastating the island. Controversy surrounded the official death toll, fuelled by estimates of excess mortality from academics and investigative journalists. We analysed all-cause excess mortality following the storm. We did a time-series analysis in Puerto Rico from September, 2017, to February, 2018. Mortality data were from the Puerto Rico Vital Statistics System. We developed two counterfactual scenarios to establish the population at risk. In the first scenario, the island's population was assumed to track the most recent census estimates. In the second scenario, we accounted for the large-scale population displacement. Expected mortality was projected for each scenario through over-dispersed log-linear regression from July, 2010, to August, 2017, taking into account changing distributions of age, sex, and municipal socioeconomic development, as well as both long-term and seasonal trends in mortality. Excess mortality was calculated as the difference between observed and expected deaths. Between September, 2017, and February, 2018, we estimated that 1191 excess deaths (95% CI 836-1544) occurred under the census scenario. Under the preferred displacement scenario, we estimated that 2975 excess deaths (95% CI 2658-3290) occurred during the same observation period. The ratio of observed to expected mortality was highest for individuals living in municipalities with the lowest socioeconomic development (1·43, 95% CI 1·39-1·46), and for men aged 65 years or older (1·33, 95% CI 1·30-1·37). Excess risk persisted in these groups throughout the observation period. Analysis of all-cause mortality with vital registration data allows for unbiased estimation of the impact of disasters associated with natural hazards and is useful for public health surveillance. It does not depend on certified cause of death, the basis for the official death toll in Puerto Rico. Although all sectors of Puerto Rican society were affected, recovery varied by municipal socioeconomic development and age groups. This finding calls for equitable disaster preparedness and response to protect vulnerable populations in disasters. Forensic Science Bureau, Department of Public Safety, and Milken Institute School of Public Health of The George Washington University (Washington, DC, USA).

All over the place? Differences in and consistency of excess mortality estimates in Puerto Rico after hurricane Maria John Sandberg;Carlos Santos-Burgoa;Amira Roess;Ann Goldman-Hawes;Cynthia Pérez;Alejandra Garcia-Meza;Lynn Goldman; Epidemiology

Objective: With natural hazards increasing in frequency and severity and global population aging, preparedness efforts must evolve to address older adults’ risks in disasters. This study elucidates potential contributors to the elevated older adult mortality risk following Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico through an examination of community stakeholder preparedness, response, and recovery experiences. Methods: In April 2018, qualitative interviews (n = 22) were conducted with stakeholders in 7 Puerto Rican municipalities. Interview transcripts were deductively and inductively coded and analyzed to identify salient topics and themes representing participant response patterns. Results: The hurricane’s detrimental impact on older adult health emerged as a prominent finding. Through 6 months post-hurricane, many older adults experienced unmet needs that contributed to declining physical and emotional health, inadequate non-communicable disease management, social isolation, financial strain, and excess morbidity and mortality. These needs were predominantly consequences of lengthy public service gaps, unsafe living conditions, interrupted health care, and the incongruence between preparedness and event severity. Conclusions: In a landscape of increasing natural hazard frequency and magnitude, a pattern of older adult risk has become increasingly clear. Study findings compel practitioners to engage in natural hazard preparedness planning, research, and policy-making that considers the multiple facets of older adult well-being.

Objective: This study aimed to examine factors that may have contributed to community disaster resilience following Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. Methods: In April 2018, qualitative interviews (n = 22) were conducted with stakeholders in 7 Puerto Rican municipalities (9% of total). Transcripts were deductively and inductively coded and analyzed to identify salient topics and themes, then examined according to strategic themes from the Federal Emergency Management Association’s (FEMA) Whole Community Approach. Results: Municipal preparedness efforts were coordinated, community-based, leveraged community assets, and prioritized vulnerable populations. Strategies included (1) multi-sectoral coordination and strategic personnel allocation; (2) neighborhood leader designation as support contacts; (3) leveraging of community leader expertise and social networks to protect vulnerable residents; (4) Censuses of at-risk groups, health professionals, and first responders; and (5) outreach for risk communication and locally tailored protective measures. In the context of collapsed telecommunications, communities implemented post-disaster strategies to facilitate communication with the Puerto Rican Government, between local first responders, and to keep residents informed, including the use of: (1) police radios; (2) vehicles with loudspeakers; (3) direct interpersonal communication; and (4) solar-powered Internet radio stations. Conclusions: Adaptive capacities and actions of Puerto Rican communities exemplify the importance of local solutions in disasters. Expanded research is recommended to better understand contributors to disaster resilience.

Prior research has demonstrated an association between lead exposure and criminal behavior at the population-level, however studies exploring the effect of lead exposure on criminal behavior at the individual-level have not been reviewed systematically. The intent of this study is to complete a systematic review of all studies assessing individual-level exposures to lead and the outcomes of crime and antisocial behavior traits. We included peer reviewed studies that were published prior to August 2022 and were classified as cohort, cross-sectional, or case-control. Studies measuring the outcomes of crime, delinquency, violence, or aggression were included. The following databases were searched using a standardized search strategy: ProQuest Environmental Science Database, PubMed, ToxNet and the Public Affairs Information Service (PAIS). Seventeen manuscripts met our inclusion criteria. Blood lead was measured in 12 studies, bone lead in 3 studies, and dentine lead levels in 2 studies. This systematic review identified a wide range of diverse outcomes between exposure to lead at multiple windows of development and later delinquent, criminal and antisocial behavior. A review of all potential confounding variables included within each study was made, with inclusion of relevant confounders into the risk of bias tool. There is limited data at the individual level on the effects of prenatal, childhood, and adolescent lead exposure and later criminal behavior and more evidence is necessary to evaluate the magnitude of the associations seen in this review. Our review, in conjunction with the available biological evidence, suggests that an excess risk for criminal behavior in adulthood exists when an individual is exposed to lead in utero or in the early years of childhood. The authors report no conflict of interest and no funding source. Clinical trial registration: PROSPERO ID: CRD42021268379.