Nile Basin policy makers, at all levels, are constantly making quick decisions to address emergencies. The decisions are made in the context of a complex, uncertain, ever-changing and highly volatile basin. However, for these decisions to take into account future uncertainties, like climate-change induced disasters, policy makers need to enhance their capacity in strategic foresight. Strategic foresight helps them make more robust decisions that take into account deep uncertainties and thus buffer the basin from future natural disasters. The authors explore the contribution of serious gaming in enhancing the Nile Basin policy makers’ capacity on strategic foresight. They present the findings from the application of a game-based, experimental study of a serious game known as WeShareIt. WeShareIt was played in Nairobi on 22 October 2015 by 11 participants from the Kenyan Ministry of Water and Irrigation and Moi University Centre for Public Sector Reforms. Data on the added value and contribution of the game to increased strategic foresight and disaster risk reduction were collected using pre-game, in-game and post-game questionnaires, together with a debriefing session and observations. The analysis shows that strategic foresight is an important element for effective disaster risk reduction. Observations in the game-based intervention provided evidence that the participants engaged in short term quick decision making and were not prepared for life-threatening natural disasters. The results of the experiment support the conclusion that serious gaming may be an effective and promising method for enhancing the capacity of policy makers on strategic foresight so as to prepare them for future climate induced natural disasters

Scenarios are valuable tools that could support decision making under deep uncertainty, nevertheless, their potential remains untapped. The paper explores whether participatory scenario construction in the form of stories coupled with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2100 projections may contribute to increased utility of the scenarios and projections for climate-induced risk reduction, in the Nile Basin. The Nile River is 6,695 kilometres long and covers a basin area of 3.18 million square kilometres (one-tenth of the African land mass). The basin is highly susceptible to climate-change induced disasters. According to the IPCC, there is high confidence that the Basin will suffer from severe shifts in biome distribution, compounded water stress, degradation of marine life and reduced crop productivity. There is also medium confidence that the Nile Basin will experience: severe decline in livestock, significant increase in vector and water-borne diseases, undernutrition, increased migration and sea level rise. The basin is already experiencing some of these key risks, on the other hand, their impact in the next 30 to 35 years is deeply uncertain. The findings of this paper are based on four scenarios, namely: Kazuri, Miskeen, Umoja and EjoHeza and data collected from two forums that were held in Jinja, Uganda and Nairobi, Kenya. The forum participants were a multi-disciplinary team of national and international stakeholders. The paper concludes that coupling Nile Basin storylines with the IPCC 2100 projections, proved to be an effective tool in increasing the utility of the scenarios and projections, for purposes of disaster risk reduction. Future work will entail analysing the uptake of the scenarios to resolve deadlocks and enhance cooperation

The Horizon 2020 interim evaluation (2017) indicates a steep increase in citizen engagement in European Union Citizen Science (CS) projects, with less than 1% in budgetary terms and minimal influence. Research findings attribute weak CS influence to the restriction of citizen actions to data collection, with minimal or no engagement in co-design, co-creation, data analysis, and elucidation of results. We design a participatory GIS and CS methodology aimed at engaging the citizens in the entire Earth Observation (EO) project cycle. The methodology also seeks to address previous CS project challenges related to data quality, data interoperability, citizen-motivation, and participation. We draw the high-level requirements from the SENDAI framework of action and the three pillars of active citizen engagement, as enshrined in Principle 10 of the Rio Declaration and the Aarhus Convention. The primary input of the methodology is the Haklay (2018) approach for participatory mapping and CS, and the Reed (2009) stakeholder analysis framework. The proposed methodology comprises of three main parts: system analysis, stakeholder analysis, and a six-step methodology. We designed the six-step methodology using an iterative and flexible approach, to take account of unforeseen changes. Future research will focus on implementing the methodology and evaluating its effectiveness in the Solotvyno Saltmine case study in Ukraine.

Every 2 to 7 years, Kenya experiences a reoccurrence of El-Niño rains leading to loss of life and massive damage to property. The 1997/98 El-Niño floods affected 1.5 million persons and led to an estimated USD 1.2 billion infrastructural damage, USD 236 million agricultural damage and USD 9 million on other losses (property, soil erosion, pollution). Recent rains in October 2015 to January 2016 left 112 Kenyans dead and over 100,000 internally displaced. The Kenyan Government predictions indicate that the number of affected persons will be approximately 1,500,000, before 2018. Despite the numerous exposures to floods, Kenyan communities’ resilience to floods risks is weak. Traditional crisis management approaches have not been successful in enhancing citizen capacity in flood prevention and preparedness. In addition, the past flood forecasts have not played a key role, as early warning advisories. To address these complexities, we propose a location-based game so as to create a positive learning environment and increase territory awareness, collaboration and soft skills, which are necessary for flood preparedness. Moreover, through playing the game, we hope that social learning for joint action will be enhanced. The game is known as “MAFURIKO” which is a Swahili word for floods. Through MAFURIKO, the citizens may learn basic flood prevention and preparedness procedures, may begin to see their predicament differently and may also identify opportunities which remain untapped. In this paper, we outline a theoretical framework and preliminary MAFURIKO game design specifications for the Nzoia sub-basin of the Lake Victoria Basin, in Kenya. MAFURIKO is intended to enhance the capacity of Kenyan citizens on flood risk reduction, so that they can work with the Kenyan Government to prevent and prepare for future floods. Future work will entail completion, staging and application of the location based game

The Paris Agreement was a monumental stride towards global climate change governance. It unlocked the climate change gridlock, introducing country-subjective commitments and a five-year review mechanism. To support the implementation of the Paris Agreement, we designed the Nzoia WeShareIt climate change game. Game sessions were conducted in June and July 2015, and 35 respondents completed a pre- and post-game situation awareness (SA) questionnaire and an in-game performance measurement system. The questionnaire uses a 10-dimensional situation awareness rating technique (SART). Subsequently, we conducted a factorial MANOVA (multivariate analysis of variance) to assess the interaction effects between familiarity, team, and gender. Results indicate an increase in situation awareness. However, policymakers’ action was not contingent on the increased SA only, there was a significant interaction effect between familiarity and SA, to lead to climate change actions. Therefore, we recommend more emphasis on the role of familiarity in enhancing SA and, subsequently, supporting the implementation to the Paris five-year review country commitments. We also recommend the increased usage of symbols and capacity development of policymakers on connective capacity to enable them to span the climate change boundaries.

The Netherlands Climate Change Agreement aims to reduce CO₂ emissions and seismic events by halting natural gas usage by 2050. This will require widespread societal acceptance by 90% of households. The study investigates the social acceptance of a district heating network (DHN) among social housing tenants in Haarlem, Netherlands. The findings of a survey administered to ninety-five tenants revealed a substantial level of support for the DHN project. A significant portion of respondents, 75%, expressed their approval for the DHN, surpassing the legally required threshold of 70% for implementing building retrofits. Findings imply that although the participants possess an adequate comprehension of the rationale for energy transition, their familiarity with the precise particulars and practical information pertaining to the proposed transition to DHN is inadequate. The level of trust in housing corporations, energy providers, and the municipality is uniformly low, indicating a lack of institutional trust. Generally, the interpersonal trust among tenants tends to be lower than their trust in the broader public, which in turn restricts their capacity for self-organization and exercising influence over energy institutions. Although DHNs are typically regarded as environmentally friendly and secure, there are several challenges that need to be addressed, including the uncertainty about who will cover the costs of transitioning and the doubts surrounding DHN feasibility (warmth and reliability). We suggest implementing interventions to improve tenants' comprehension of the DHN project's particulars (capability), provide practical information regarding costs and feasibility (motivation), and foster trust at both interpersonal and institutional levels (opportunity).