Dynamic rupture simulations of earthquakes offer crucial insights into the physical mechanisms of driving fault slip and seismic hazards. By incorporating non-planar fault models that accurately represent subsurface structures, this study provides a realistic depiction of the rupture processes of the 2020 Mw 6.8 Elazığ, Türkiye earthquake, influenced by geometric complexities. Initially, we determined its coseismic slip on the non-planar fault using near-field strong motion and InSAR observations. Subsequently, we established the heterogeneous initial stress on the fault plane based on the coseismic slip and integrated it into the dynamic rupture modeling to assess physics-based ground motion and seismic hazards. The numerical simulations utilized the curved grid finite-difference method (CGFDM), which effectively models rupture dynamics with heterogeneities in fault geometry, initial stress, and other factors. Our synthetic surface deformation and seismograms align well with the observational data obtained from InSAR and seismic instruments. We observed localized occurrences of supershear rupture during fault propagation. Furthermore, the intensity distribution we simulated closely aligns with the actual observations. These findings highlight the critical role of source heterogeneity in seismic hazard assessment, advancing our understanding of fault dynamics and enhancing predictive capabilities.

Characterized by frequent earthquakes and a dense population, Yunnan Province, China, faces significant seismic hazards and is a hot place for earthquake forecasting research. In a previous study, we evaluated the performance of the b value for 5-year seismic forecasting during 2000–2019 and made a forward prediction of M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in 2020–2024. In this study, with the forecast period having passed, we first revisit the results and assess the forward prediction performance. Then, the background seismicity rate, which may also offer valuable long-term forecasting information, is incorporated into earthquake prediction for Yunnan Province. To assess the effectiveness of the prediction, the Molchan Error Diagram (MED), Probability Gain (PG), and Probability Difference (PD) are employed. Using a 25-year catalog, the spatial b value and background seismicity rate across five temporal windows are calculated, and 86 M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes as prediction samples are examined. The predictive performance of the background seismicity rate and b value is comprehensively tested and shown to be useful for 5-year forecasting in Yunnan. The performance of the b value exhibits a positive correlation with the predicted earthquake magnitude. The synergistic effect of combining these two predictors is also revealed. Finally, using the threshold corresponding to the maximum PD, we integrate the forecast information of background seismicity rates and the b value. A forward prediction is derived for the period from January 2025 to December 2029. This study can be helpful for disaster preparedness and risk management in Yunnan Province, China.