Systematically assessing the impact of industrial restructuring on carbon emissions and economic growth from the industrial correlation perspective holds great significance for realizing sustainable economic development. By extending the input–output analysis, this study developed a comprehensive assessment framework to evaluate the impacts of industrial restructuring on energy-related carbon emissions and economic growth within a multi-sectoral system from the industrial correlation perspective. An indicator system was established to identify key sectors for different industrial restructuring strategies. Taking Guangdong as a case, the results show that (1) the indirect impact of industrial restructuring in sectors such as equipment manufacturing and services on carbon emissions is more significant than that on economic growth, and the carbon intensity of its indirect impact is much larger than that of its direct impact; (2) industrial restructuring indirectly affects energy-related carbon emissions or economic growth mainly through a limited number of linked sectors, whereas the main linked pathways through which sector-specific industrial restructuring indirectly affects carbon emissions and economic growth are not consistent; (3) from the industrial correlation perspective, environmental benefits are higher for the service sector and lower for the construction sector; and (4) in industrial restructuring, the metal-processing sector is identified as a key sector for pursuing low-carbon transition, while the non-metallic mineral products sector is identified as a key sector for controlling production scale. The findings and framework can inform regional decisions on industrial restructuring and carbon reduction from the industrial correlation perspective.

The Green Finance Pilot Policy (GFPP) is a crucial initiative in China, aiming to provide financial support for achieving carbon neutrality. Objectively evaluating the outcomes of the GFPP is crucial for refining the policy and replicating successful experiences. This paper takes Guangzhou as a case study based on panel data from 25 cities spanning 2005 to 2019 and employs the synthetic control method to evaluate the impact of the GFPP on Guangzhou’s carbon emission efficiency (CEE). Additionally, this paper analyzes its spatial spillover effects and driving mechanisms through the SDID model. The results indicate that the GFPP has effectively enhanced Guangzhou’s CEE by an average of 25.3%. Furthermore, the GFPP has also enhanced the CEE of neighboring cities, with a decaying boundary of 100 km. Promoting green technology innovation and improving energy efficiency are identified as effective mechanisms through which the GFPP enhances the city’s CEE. This paper provides a comprehensive examination of the impact and mechanisms of the GFPP on CEE from a spatial perspective. The findings could offer valuable insights for advancing green finance systems and helping cities leverage financial policies to support low-carbon transition.