The exceptionally high spatial-temporal variability of the river runoff and the significance of its transboundary component considerably worsen the problem of the water supply of the republic. Due to the disadvantageous geographical location in the lower reaches of transboundary river basins, the Republic of Kazakhstan is largely dependent on water economy activities taking place in neighbouring countries. In the article the modern change of the resources of river runoff in Kazakhstan, taking into account climatic and anthropogenic influences is considered. For the assessment of the impact of economic activities on the river runoff and changes in climatic-related runoff, the complex of integral methods was used, and appropriate methodologies were developed. The obtained results of the modern influence of a complex of factors, as well as their significance for the future (till 2030), can be used for the development of scientifically based solutions for sustainable management and protection of water resources. An assessment of the anthropogenic activity of this study shows that the water resources of the river runoff of the Republic of Kazakhstan have decreased by 16.0 km 3∙y –1. According to our forecasts, there will be a further decrease in the water resources of the republic due to the expected decrease in transboundary flow to 87.1 km 3∙y –1 by 2030, in dry years less than 50.0 km 3∙y –1. We propose a set of measures to prevent the negative impact of possible reduction of river runoff resources in the future in the water basins of Kazakhstan.

Snowiness and avalanche activity are very important natural characteristics of mountain areas. They have a great influence on the possibility of areas’ development, especially regarding winter recreation. This article considers the interannual variability of snowiness and avalanche activity in the Ile Alatau Ridge (Northern Tien Shan), which belongs to the areas with a continental snow climate. The sum of winter precipitation and snow depth are used as snowiness indices, and the indices of avalanche activity are the total avalanche volume, maximum avalanche volume and number of avalanches. The work uses archival data for the period from 1966 to 2022. Interannual variability of snowiness and avalanche activity indices and long-term temporal trends were assessed, correlation between these indices was studied, and extreme values with different return periods were calculated. The relationship between years with a high snowiness and years with a high avalanche activity, as well as years with a high avalanche activity and years with a large number of avalanche victims and high avalanche damage has been studied. Similar studies have not been previously carried out for the areas with a continental snow climate. Snowiness indices have weak, non-significant, increasing temporal trends. The total avalanche volume has a non-significant decreasing temporal trend, and the maximum avalanche volume has a significant decreasing one. The number of avalanches has a significant increasing temporal trend. This study could be relevant for understanding the features of temporal variability of snowiness and avalanche activity in the mountainous regions with a continental snow climate.

Over the last few decades, increasing water levels of Lake Alakol have led to the activation of processes of modern relief formation of the coastal territory. This study will make it possible to assess the vulnerability of the lake shore to modern relief-forming processes, which pose a threat to the economic and infrastructural development of the coast. Through a combination of field research methods, analysis of the archival materials and satellite images, GIS mapping, as well as the application of the Coastal Vulnerability Index, developed by Gornitz, a map of the modern relief of the coast of Lake Alakol was created, where 13 geomorphological types of relief were identified, and a map of relief-forming processes and leading exogenous processes were identified. The values of the assessment of the degree of vulnerability of the coast to dangerous processes by the Gornitz method were obtained, where a high vulnerability covers 67.4% of the coast, an average vulnerability covers 2.9%, a weak vulnerability covers 13.3%, and low vulnerability occupies 16.4% of the coast. The degree of vulnerability of types of relief in the study area, the coast of Lake Alakol, was determined. High degree occupies 42.8% of the study area, medium—30.7%, weak—25.4%, and low 1.1%. A map of the complex assessment of the degree of vulnerability of the coast of Lake Alakol was created. It was revealed that low accumulative types of relief of the northwest and northeast coasts and alluvial-proluvial types of relief are highly vulnerable due to waterlogging and the intensity of abrasion processes. Identified natural features of the relief formation of the coast of Lake Alakol are recommended as a basis for making decisions on the planning and implementation of any economic activities on the coast, including infrastructure development of the coast and strengthening of the shores.

This article analyzes the extreme flood situation on the Zhaiyk River in 2024, which affected the territories of Kazakhstan and Russia. The materials from hydrological posts observing the Zhaiyk River’s water levels were studied, graphs of water level changes were constructed, and the passage of a flood wave along the river’s length was analyzed. Graphoanalytic calculation methods were used to determine the time for maximum levels to be reached from the upper to the lower reaches. A transverse profile of the Zhaiyk River was built at the Atyrau alignment. A forecast of the time for the maximum level and flow of the Zhaiyk River to reach the city of Atyrau is provided. Recommendations on flood risk management are given, including the diversion of water into estuaries and canals, as well as the use of modern monitoring technologies.

Аннотация. Прогнозы лавинной опасности имеют большое значение для обеспечения безопасности населения и туристов в горных районах. Все методы прогноза снежных лавин, применяемые в работе снеголавинной службы Казахстана, были разработаны в 80-е годы XX века. Они нуждаются в существенной модернизации. В лаборатории природных опасностей Института географии и водной безопасности ведутся работы по изучению передовых научных методов по оценке и прогнозированию лавинной опасности. В зимний период с декабря 2020 по апрель 2021 года был проведен эксперимент по оценке уровня лавинной опасности в окрестностях города Алматы и выпуску еженедельного снеголавинного бюллетеня. Основная задача проекта – адаптировать опыт Швейцарского института снега и лавин (SLF) для условий Казахстана. В процессе работы анализировалась метеорологическая информация, поступающая с метеорологических станций международного обмена. Уровень лавинной опасности оценивался по международной пяти балльной шкале. Экспертная оценка осуществлялась с учетом рекомендаций института SLF. Для облегчения работы прогнозиста, была разработана автоматическая экспертная система с применением нейросетевых технологий. Нейронная сеть обучалась на многолетних данных о снеголавинной обстановке в бассейне реки Киши Алматы. Для увеличения заблаговременности снеголавинных предупреждений использовались прогнозы погоды европейского центра (ECMWF). Результаты оценки уровня лавинной опасности публиковались еженедельно на сайте Института географии и водной безопасности, а также в социальной сети Telegram. Этот метод рекомендуется использовать в оперативной работе РГП «Казгидромет» и ГУ «Казселезащита.

The article considers the key aspects of optimization of the composition and placement of the hydrological network of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of ensuring sustainable monitoring of water resources. The main attention is paid to the preservation of reference (long-row) observation points necessary for territorial generalizations, development of methods for hydrological calculations and forecasts, as well as assessment of long-term changes in the hydrological regime in the context of climate change. The scientific study emphasizes the importance of increasing the number of information posts to improve the reliability of hydrological forecasts and warnings of hazardous phenomena, equipping the hydrological network with modern equipment in strategically important areas, and restoring specialized observation points for experimental research. The implementation of the proposed measures will meet the current and future needs of the economy for hydrological information, as well as improve the accuracy and reliability of hydrological calculations and forecasts.