Accurate travel time prediction is of high value for freight transports, as it allows supply chain participants to increase their logistics quality and efficiency. It requires both sufficient input data, which can be generated, e.g., by mobile sensors, and adequate prediction methods. Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are well suited to solve non-linear and complex relationships in the collected tracking data. Despite that, only a minority of recent publications use ML for travel time prediction in multimodal transports. We apply the ML algorithms extremely randomized trees (ExtraTrees), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), and support vector regression (SVR) to this problem because of their ability to deal with low data volumes and their low processing times. Using different combinations of features derived from the data, we have built several models for travel time prediction. Tracking data from a real-world multimodal container transport relation from Germany to the USA are used for evaluation of the established models. We show that SVR provides the best prediction accuracy, with a mean absolute error of 17 h for a transport time of up to 30 days. We also show that our model performs better than average-based approaches.
1 January 2014 in Mathematical Problems in Engineering
This paper presents a mathematical model for robust production planning. The model helps fashion apparel suppliers in making decisions concerning allocation of production orders to different production plants characterized by different lead times and production costs, and in proper time scheduling and sequencing of these production orders. The model aims at optimizing these decisions concerning objectives of minimal production costs and minimal tardiness. It considers several factors such as the stochastic nature of customer demand, differences in production and transport costs and transport times between production plants in different regions. Finally, the model is applied to a case study. The results of numerical computations are presented. The implications of the model results on different fashion related product types and delivery strategies, as well as the model’s limitations and potentials for expansion, are discussed. Results indicate that the production planning model using conditional value at risk (CVaR) as the risk measure performs robustly and provides flexibility in decision analysis between different scenarios.
In many current supply chains, transport processes are not yet being monitored concerning how they influence product quality. Sensor technologies combined with telematics and digital services allow for collecting environmental data to supervise these processes in near real-time. This article outlines an approach for integrating sensor-based quality data into supply chain event management (SCEM). The article describes relationships between environmental conditions and quality defects of automotive products and their mutual relations to sensor data. A discrete-event simulation shows that the use of sensor data in an event-driven control of material flows can keep inventory levels more stable. In conclusion, sensor data can improve quality monitoring in transport processes within automotive supply chains.