Influenced by a warm and humid climate, the permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is undergoing significant degradation, leading to the occurrence of extensive thermokarst landforms. Among the most typical landforms in permafrost areas is thaw slump. This study, based on three periods of data from keyhole images of 1968–1970, the fractional images of 2006–2009 and the Gaofen (GF) images of 2018–2019, combined with field surveys for validation, investigates the distribution characteristics and spatiotemporal variation trends of thaw slumps in the Hoh Xil area and evaluates the susceptibility to thaw slumping in this area. The results from 1968 to 2019 indicate a threefold increase in the number and a twofold increase in total area of thaw slumps. Approximately 70% of the thaw slumps had areas less than 2 × 10⁴ m². When divided into a grid of 3 km × 3 km, about 1.3% (128 grids) of the Hoh Xil region experienced thaw slumping from 1968 to 1970, while 4.4% (420 grids) showed such occurrences from 2018 to 2019. According to the simulation results obtained using the informativeness method, the area classified as very highly susceptible to thaw slumping covers approximately 26% of the Hoh Xil area, while the highly susceptible area covers about 36%. In the Hoh Xil, 61% of the thaw slump areas had an annual warming rate ranging from 0.18 to 0.25 °C/10a, with 70% of the thaw slump areas experiencing a precipitation increase rate exceeding 12 mm/10a. Future assessments of thaw slump development suggest a possible minimum of 41 and a maximum of 405 thaw slumps occurrences annually in the Hoh Xil region. Under rapidly changing climatic conditions, apart from environmental risks, there also exist substantial potential risks associated with thaw slumping, such as the triggering of large-scale landslides and debris flows. Therefore, it is imperative to conduct simulated assessments of thaw slumping throughout the entire plateau to address regional risks in the future.

Thermokarst lakes are shallow bodies of freshwater that develop in permafrost regions, and they are an essential focus of international permafrost research. However, research regarding the mechanisms driving temperature fluctuations in thermokarst lakes and the factors that influence these changes is limited. We aimed to analyze seasonal variations in the surface water temperature, clarify historical trends in the phenological characteristics of lake ice, and predict future temperature changes in surface water of the thermokarst lakes using the air2water model. The results indicated that in comparison with air temperature, the thermokarst lake’s surface water temperature showed a certain lag and significantly higher values in the warm season. The warming rate of the thermokarst lake’s average surface water temperature based on historical data from 1957 to 2022 was 0.21 °C per decade, with a notably higher rate in August (0.42 °C per decade) than in other months. Furthermore, the ice-covered period steadily decreased by 2.12 d per decade. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 projections, by 2100, the surface water temperatures of thermokarst lakes during the warm season are projected to increase by 0.38, 0.46, and 2.82 °C (under scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), respectively. Compared with typical tectonic lakes on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, thermokarst lakes have higher average surface water temperatures during ice-free periods, and they exhibit a higher warming rate (0.21 °C per decade). These results elucidate the response mechanisms of thermokarst lakes’ surface water temperature and the phenological characteristics of lake ice in response to climate change.