Rapid urbanization and climate change together increase the vulnerability of poor urban communities to natural hazards, undermining urban resilience. It is therefore critical to identify and deepen our understanding of the main variables, and the complex interactions between them, producing and shaping the vulnerability of poor urban communities to natural hazards. Identifying factors that challenge or support the efforts of these communities in responding to hazards is also helpful in policymaking for urban resilience. To develop this understanding, it is necessary to conduct detailed research at the local scale. This paper aims to contribute to this knowledge by applying participatory modelling techniques to a particular case study of an informal settlement in Durban, South Africa. The aim is to elucidate how this detailed empirical research can contribute to broader theoretical knowledge on urban vulnerability and resilience in the face of climate change and rapid urbanization.

Urbanization and climate change are compounding the vulnerability of flooding for the urban poor, particularly in the Global South. However, local governance can be a greater determinant of flood risk than the hazard itself. Identifying strengths and weaknesses in local governance for water management is therefore crucial. This paper presents a governance assessment for Quarry Road West informal settlement, Durban, South Africa, in relation to flood risk by applying the Capital Approach Framework. Through developing a deeper understanding of the current governance system, the embeddedness of several social values can also be gauged. This is important particularly for integrative and transdisciplinary management of flood risk, enacted in the case of Quarry Road West informal settlement through the Palmiet Rehabilitation Project, a multi sector partnership at the climate change and water governance interface. Findings from this study indicate that, currently, climate change adaptation remains a challenge for decision-makers and policy-planners. A more effective integration of the residents of Quarry Road West informal settlement into local governance for water management is urgently needed. This is particularly important in the context of informal settlements that are marginalized and often lacking governance mechanisms to affect change.

The IPCC 1.5°C Report lists identifying local capacity needs as key for enabling multi-level governance to effectively respond to climate change. Mauritius, as a Small Island State, is disproportionately affected by climate change, primarily due to its exposure to impacts, as well as various constraints in size and resources. Identifying and integrating local capacity needs into recommendations for policy measures is therefore urgently required to support the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its National Adaptation Plan process. This study carries out a local governance assessment based on evaluative criteria to identify local capacity needs for implementing climate change adaptation in Mauritius. Results from the assessment indicate that local governance suffers from issues inherent to Small Island States, such as lack of technical know-how, financial and human resources, stringent legislation and effective monitoring mechanisms, preventing effective climate change adaptation. Through participatory, bottom-up stakeholder engagement with local and national government representatives, eight recommendations for policy formulation were then co-developed to address the identified capacity needs, and to improve cooperation between local and national institutions for more effective implementation of climate change adaptation. Key policy insights

The lack of capacity for climate change adaptation at the subnational level has been highlighted as a key barrier to implementing the UNFCCC National Adaptation Plans. At the same time, the adaptive capacity of local governance is highly context sensitive, making a “one‐size fits all” approach inappropriate. Thus, a versatile methodological approach for application in various local contexts is required. There are several indicator‐based local governance assessment methods for evaluating the effectiveness of local governance for climate change adaptation. However, they fall short of identifying and prioritizing between key factors within local governance for enhancing adaptive capacity and driving positive change. Building on adaptation theory, the authors propose combining two methodological approaches, the Capital Approach Framework for evaluating the adaptive capacity of local governance and Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping for identifying leverage points, into one integrated modeling approach, which can be applied by local researchers. This paper describes the process and benefits of combining the methodological approaches, with an example provided as supporting information. Assisting decision‐makers and policy planners from subnational governance in identifying leverage points to focus and maximize impact of capacity‐enhancing measures would make a key contribution for successful implementation of the UNFCCC National Adaptation Plans.

Non-technical summary: The ‘last mile’ is a transportation planning term that describes the movement of people and goods from a transportation hub to a final destination; a local place such as a home or a shop. This is the final step of the logistics process that unites the product with its new owner. We present and explain challenges of science-guided adaptation at the local level, and how this is an equivalent ‘last mile’ challenge for climate adaptation. Technical summary: The ‘last mile’ issue, a term used in transportation planning, describes the movement of people and goods from a transportation hub to a final destination, a local place such as a home or a shop. This is the critical final step of the logistics process that unites the product with its new owner, and the point of the value chain. This analogy aptly describes the last steps between presenting scientific evidence of climate change to decision-makers for use in local adaptation and planning. Climate change data (observational and model simulation data e.g. climate change projections and predictions) remain under-utilised, especially by local institutions and actors for which adaptation is a priority. The assumptions and assertions of the classical data–information–knowledge–wisdom are challenged, and a derivative form of the information hierarchy is proposed. Elements of the classical information hierarchy are offset by four balancing elements of access (to data); usability (of information); governance (of knowledge) and politics (of wisdom). These balancing elements and their relatedness coincide with newer models of innovation relating to the interaction between different stakeholders across the different levels of governance, the inclusion of stakeholder expectations, transparency and accountability. Social media summary: Climate data to wise decision-making in the ‘last mile’: a novel perspective on science-guided local adaptation.

A better understanding of climate change impacts and resulting human responses (climate‐related human mobility) have been identified as a research priority by the climate science community. Here, we provide the basis for future research efforts by identifying knowledge gaps and consolidating published evidence in the IPCC 1.5 Special Report (SR15) with recent evidence from climate science and the literature on human mobility in African drylands, a region where migrants are particularly vulnerable to climate change. We first synthesize climatic changes and their projected impacts across the region to then contextualize the projected impacts with current knowledge regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on human mobility. We discuss these often indirect impact channels and argue that a systems approach is needed to address the interconnectedness of climate impacts and the cascading risks of adverse consequences for human mobility.