Rapid urbanization and climate change together increase the vulnerability of poor urban communities to natural hazards, undermining urban resilience. It is therefore critical to identify and deepen our understanding of the main variables, and the complex interactions between them, producing and shaping the vulnerability of poor urban communities to natural hazards. Identifying factors that challenge or support the efforts of these communities in responding to hazards is also helpful in policymaking for urban resilience. To develop this understanding, it is necessary to conduct detailed research at the local scale. This paper aims to contribute to this knowledge by applying participatory modelling techniques to a particular case study of an informal settlement in Durban, South Africa. The aim is to elucidate how this detailed empirical research can contribute to broader theoretical knowledge on urban vulnerability and resilience in the face of climate change and rapid urbanization.

Climate change and the overexploitation of natural resources increase the need to integrate sustainable development policies at both national and international levels to fit the demands of a growing population. In 2015 the United Nations (UN) established the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development with the aim of eradicating extreme poverty, reducing inequality and protecting the planet. The Agenda 2030 highlights the importance of biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems to maintain economic activities and the well-being of local communities. Nature Based Solutions (NBS) support biodiversity conservation and the functioning of ecosystems. NBS are increasingly seen as innovative solutions to manage water-related risks while transforming natural capital into a source of green growth and sustainable development. In this context, NBS could potentially contribute to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by promoting the delivery of bundles of ecosystem services together generating various social, economic and environmental co-benefits. However, to achieve the full potential of NBS, it is necessary to recognize the trade-offs and synergies of the co-benefits associated with their implementation. To this aim, we have adopted a system perspective and a multi-sectoral approach to analyse the potential of NBS to deliver co-benefits while at the same time reducing the negative effects of water-related hazards. Using the case study of Copenhagen, we have analysed the relationships between the co-benefits associated with the scenario of the restoration of the Ladegaardsaa urban river. Our hypothesis is that enhancing the understanding of the social, economic and environmental factors of the system, including mutual influences and trade-offs, could improve the decision-making process and thereby enhance the capability of NBS to contribute to the achievement of the SDGs.

SUMMARY: Various management approaches have been proposed to address the alarming depletion of marine coastal resources. Prominent among them are community-based management and the establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs). The overall poor performance of MPAs can be traced to a failure to effectively include local communities in the design and implementation of relevant measures. Recent efforts have incorporated aspects of community-based management into a hybrid form of management, which ideally builds upon existing local management practices. A key challenge lies in the development of appropriate frameworks that allow for the successful participation of local communities in management. A review of studies on MPA design and community-based marine resource management and fieldwork observations provides suggestions on how to address current socioeconomic shortcomings in MPA design and implementation, successfully involving local communities in order to provide a better local basis for effective larger MPA networks. A combination of MPA tools as the formal frame and community-based natural resource management as the adaptive core that recognizes local communities as allies, not aliens, is needed to develop successful conservation approaches.

Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as ‘1.5 °C scenarios’, with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define ‘medium’ and ‘high’ upper bounds that delineate between their ‘reasonable’, ‘challenging’ and ‘speculative’ use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently ‘over use’ CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are ‘over used’ less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO₂ (16–22 Gt CO₂ interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO₂ emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range).

Urbanization and climate change are compounding the vulnerability of flooding for the urban poor, particularly in the Global South. However, local governance can be a greater determinant of flood risk than the hazard itself. Identifying strengths and weaknesses in local governance for water management is therefore crucial. This paper presents a governance assessment for Quarry Road West informal settlement, Durban, South Africa, in relation to flood risk by applying the Capital Approach Framework. Through developing a deeper understanding of the current governance system, the embeddedness of several social values can also be gauged. This is important particularly for integrative and transdisciplinary management of flood risk, enacted in the case of Quarry Road West informal settlement through the Palmiet Rehabilitation Project, a multi sector partnership at the climate change and water governance interface. Findings from this study indicate that, currently, climate change adaptation remains a challenge for decision-makers and policy-planners. A more effective integration of the residents of Quarry Road West informal settlement into local governance for water management is urgently needed. This is particularly important in the context of informal settlements that are marginalized and often lacking governance mechanisms to affect change.