We evaluate bioclimatic changes in Kazakhstan from the end of the 20th century until the middle of the 21st century to offer natural resource managers a tool that facilitates their decision-making on measures to adapt agriculture and environmental care to foreseeable climate change. We use climatic data from the “Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies” (PRECIS) prediction and study them following the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System (WBCS) of Rivas-Martínez. For three 25-year intervals (1980–2004, 2010–2034 and 2035–2059), we identify the continentality, macrobioclimates, bioclimates, bioclimatic variants, thermotypes, ombrotypes and isobioclimates of the study area. The results of the work allow us to: locate the territories where bioclimatic conditions will change, quantify the magnitude of the predicted climate changes, and determine the trends of predictable climate change. We present the results in maps, tables and graphs. For the 80-year interval, we identify 3 macroclimates, 3 bioclimatic variants, 10 bioclimates, 11 thermotypes, 10 ombrotypes and 43 isobioclimates. Some of those found bioclimates, thermotypes, ombrotypes and isobioclimates are only located in the E, SE and S mountains, where they occupy very small areas, that decrease in a generalized way as the 20th century progresses. Comparing the three successive periods, the following trends are observed: 36.2% of the territory increases in thermicity; 7.3% of the territory increases in continentality; 9.7% of the territory increases in annual aridity; 9.5% of the territory increases in summer aridity or mediterraneity; and generalized losses occur in the areas of all mountain isobioclimates. The climate change foreseen by the PRECIS model for the middle of the 21st century leads to bioclimatic homogenization, with 20.8% losses in bioclimatic diversity. We indicate on maps the locations of all the predicted bioclimatic changes; these maps may provide decision makers with a scientific basis to take necessary adaptation measures.

Assessments of the agro-climatic resources of Northern Kazakhstan are urgently needed in the face of climate change and increasing threats to food security in the world, and they can provide valuable information for specialists in the field of agriculture. To assess the agro-climatic conditions of Northern Kazakhstan, the following agro-climatic indices were used: heat availability, moisture availability, and aridity of the growing season for the period 1991–2023. The research results rendered it possible to build maps of the spatial distribution of agro-climatic indicators, and five agro-climatic zones, ranging from “moderately humid moderately warm” in the north to “very arid moderately hot” in the south of Northern Kazakhstan, were identified. Recommendations were developed with respect to the agro-climatic zoning of main crops, taking into account the climatic resources of Northern Kazakhstan. The data obtained will be used for the strategic planning of the agricultural crop industry in Northern Kazakhstan.

This study analyzed precipitation and air temperature in the Zhambyl, Almaty, Zhetysu, Abay, and East Kazakhstan regions of Kazakhstan using data from the national meteorological network of the RSE Kazhydromet. The purpose of the study was to reveal the climatic changes and their spatial distribution throughout the study area. A modified Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s Slope estimator were applied to analyze aridity conditions in combination with the drought indices SPEI and Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient, enabling analysis of the magnitude and statistical significance of trend changes from April to September for the period 1981 to 2023. The magnitude of the observed trends of the mean growing-season temperature increased by 0.211 °C decade⁻¹, while precipitation declined by 2.074 mm decade⁻¹, which indicates a decrease in moisture availability for crops in the southeast and east of Kazakhstan. The results of this study may be of interest to agricultural specialists, ecologists, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and hydrologists to develop activities aimed at preventing threats and mitigating the effects of climate change in Kazakhstan. The use of the above statistical methods in combination with drought indices is relevant in the context of climate change and worsening food security and can serve as a good indicator for determining when significant changes in climatic parameters occurred, which will be valuable information for making management decisions.

Modern climate norms for the main indicators of heat supply during the growing season in the Almaty region have been established for the period from 1991 to 2021. By comparing the sum of daily air temperatures above 10 °C and 15 °C with 90 % reliability to the heat demand of agricultural crops, the types of agricultural crops that are fully provided with heat were determined based on meteorological stations. The longest growing season (190...200 days) is observed in the central part of the region in the foothill semi-desert zone. The highest heat supply during the growing season (3800...4000 °C) is noted in the central part of the region in the foothill semi-desert zone. In the northern and central parts of the Almaty region, crops with moderate heat demand and heat-loving crops are provided with heat. In the foothill zone, heat-loving crops are not provided with heat, and in the mountainous agricultural areas, late spring crops are also not provided with heat. Maps of the duration and heat supply of the growing season were constructed. The obtained results will be useful in solving practical and scientific problems in agriculture, such as the rational placement of crops, planning the development of the region, ensuring food security.