Changes in the frequency or intensity of rainfall due to climate always affect the conservation of soil resources, which leads to land degradation. The importance of assessing past and future climate differences plays an important role in future planning in relation to climate change. The spatiotemporal variability of erosivity depending on precipitation using the rainfall erosivity (R) of Universal Soil Loss Equation under the global circulation model (GCM) scenarios in the Chirchik–Akhangaran Basin (CHAB), which is in the northeastern part of the Republic of Uzbekistan, was statistically downscaled by using the delta method in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 during the periods of the 2030s, 2050s and 2070s. The (R) was used to determine the erosivity of precipitation, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) itself determined the effects of changes in erosivity. Ten weather station observational data points for the period from 1990 to 2016 were used to validate the global circulation models (GCMs) and erosion model. The assessment results showed an increase in precipitation from the baseline by an average of 11.8%, 14.1% and 16.3% for all models by 2030, 2050 and 2070, respectively, while at the same time, soil loss increased in parallel with precipitation by 17.1%, 20.5 % and 23.3%, respectively, in certain scenarios. The highest rainfall was observed for the models ACCESS1–3 and CanESM2 on both RCPs and periods, while more intense rainfall was the main reason for the increase in the spatial and temporal erosion activity of the rainfall-runoff. This study is a useful reference for improving soil conservation, preventing water erosion and ensuring the future sustainability of agricultural products, as well as improving the operational management and planning of agriculture.

The variations of climate and water resources in the Buqtyrma River Basin (BRB), which is located at the cross-section of the Altai Mountains, Eurasian Steppe and Tian Shan Mountains, have a great significance for agriculture and ecosystems in the region. Changing climatic conditions will change the hydrological cycle in the whole basin. In this study, we examined the historical trends and change points of the climate and hydrological variables, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes, and the relative changes in the runoff to the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from 1950 to 2015 by using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Pettitt test, double cumulative curve and elasticities methods. In addition, a multi-model ensemble (MME) of the six general circulation models (GCMs) for two future periods (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) was assessed to estimate the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation and temperature under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. Our study detected that the runoff change-point occurred in 1982. The impacts induced by climate change on runoff change were as follows—70% in the upstream, 62.11% in the midstream and 15.34% in the downstream area. The impacts of human activity on runoff change were greater in the downstream area (84.66%) than in the upstream and midstream areas. A continuously increasing trend was indicated regarding average annual temperature under RCP 4.5 (from 0.37 to 0.33 °C/decade) and under RCP 8.5 (from 0.50 to 0.61 °C/decade) during two future periods. Additionally, an increasing trend in predicted precipitation was exhibited under RCP 4.5 (13.6% and 19.9%) and under RCP 8.5 (10.5% and 18.1%) during both future periods. The results of the relative runoff changes to the predicted precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were expected to increase during two future time periods under RCP 4.5 (18.53% and 25.40%) and under RCP 8.5 (8.91% and 13.38%) relative to the base period. The present work can provide a reference for the utilization and management of regional water resources and for ecological environment protection.

Assessments of the agro-climatic resources of Northern Kazakhstan are urgently needed in the face of climate change and increasing threats to food security in the world, and they can provide valuable information for specialists in the field of agriculture. To assess the agro-climatic conditions of Northern Kazakhstan, the following agro-climatic indices were used: heat availability, moisture availability, and aridity of the growing season for the period 1991–2023. The research results rendered it possible to build maps of the spatial distribution of agro-climatic indicators, and five agro-climatic zones, ranging from “moderately humid moderately warm” in the north to “very arid moderately hot” in the south of Northern Kazakhstan, were identified. Recommendations were developed with respect to the agro-climatic zoning of main crops, taking into account the climatic resources of Northern Kazakhstan. The data obtained will be used for the strategic planning of the agricultural crop industry in Northern Kazakhstan.

This study analyzed precipitation and air temperature in the Zhambyl, Almaty, Zhetysu, Abay, and East Kazakhstan regions of Kazakhstan using data from the national meteorological network of the RSE Kazhydromet. The purpose of the study was to reveal the climatic changes and their spatial distribution throughout the study area. A modified Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s Slope estimator were applied to analyze aridity conditions in combination with the drought indices SPEI and Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient, enabling analysis of the magnitude and statistical significance of trend changes from April to September for the period 1981 to 2023. The magnitude of the observed trends of the mean growing-season temperature increased by 0.211 °C decade⁻¹, while precipitation declined by 2.074 mm decade⁻¹, which indicates a decrease in moisture availability for crops in the southeast and east of Kazakhstan. The results of this study may be of interest to agricultural specialists, ecologists, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and hydrologists to develop activities aimed at preventing threats and mitigating the effects of climate change in Kazakhstan. The use of the above statistical methods in combination with drought indices is relevant in the context of climate change and worsening food security and can serve as a good indicator for determining when significant changes in climatic parameters occurred, which will be valuable information for making management decisions.

Mountain regions are highly climate-sensitive, yet long-term observational evidence of elevation and seasonal climate dynamics in Central Asia remains limited. This study examines spatiotemporal trends in temperature (Tmean, Tmax, Tmin, and diurnal temperature range [DTR]) and precipitation across Kazakhstan’s transmountain regions using 74 meteorological stations (1981–2023). Data were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, stratified across six elevation zones from lowlands (1500 m). Results reveal a robust, spatially coherent warming signal across all zones. Annual Tmean increased at a median rate of ~0.30 °C decade⁻¹, peaking at 0.36 °C decade⁻¹ above 1500 m, corresponding to an absolute increase exceeding 1.5 °C. Warming exhibited strong seasonal and diurnal asymmetries. Spring warmed most rapidly, with Tmean increasing >0.60 °C decade⁻¹ (approaching 3 °C total). Winter warming was driven by Tmin increases (up to 0.44 °C decade⁻¹), causing widespread DTR contraction, whereas summer warming was driven by Tmax increases, expanding DTR at higher elevations. Tmin showed the strongest elevation amplification overall. In stark contrast, precipitation trends were weak, spatially heterogeneous, and largely non-significant. Annual changes ranged from −6.63 to +14.35 mm decade⁻¹, with seasonal tendencies indicating modest, non-significant winter/spring wetting and summer drying. Ultimately, the results demonstrate a profound decoupling between strong, elevation-dependent warming and weak precipitation changes. The acute amplification of temperature, particularly during spring and summer at high elevations, has severe implications for snowmelt timing, glacier mass balance, evapotranspiration demand, and long-term water security in Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan has been experiencing water scarcity due to high inter- and intra-annual precipitation and streamflow variability, which adversely impacts the country’s agricultural production and economy. In order to design suitable adaptation measures, a detailed analysis of characteristics and trends in climate data is essential. This study analyses recent climate data (1981–2019) and global gridded datasets on water balance components for two Kazakh regions. The data was analysed using Mann–Kendall trend test, extreme precipitation indexes, analysis of wet/dry spells and droughts. The results indicate that while the average annual precipitation amounts were not significantly different between the regions, there was a distinct intra-annual variability. Significant trends in hydroclimatic variables appear in the south during winter and spring, and in the north mainly in spring. No significant trends are observed for extreme precipitation. Evapotranspiration controls the water balance in both regions. Potential water available for groundwater recharge is higher in the north. Snowpack in the south is highly variable and shows a significant decreasing trend. Based on the results, managed aquifer recharge (MAR) is proposed as a potential solution to enhance water availability throughout the year, leveraging the highly variable precipitation and streamflow patterns. In both cases, the irregularly available water resources, such as spring snowmelt and heavy summer rains, can be stored through MAR schemes, thereby providing reliable support to water supply systems. This approach can serve as a countermeasure to the recurrent dry spells and droughts in the region, as well as to the climate-induced alterations of the local water balance. Graphical Abstract Graphical abstract description: This study examines hydroclimatic conditions and identifies changes and challenges in two distinct regions of Kazakhstan: the north and the south. Kazakhstan is facing water scarcity exacerbated by high climate variability. Rising temperatures, distinct and highly variable precipitation patterns in the northern and southern regions, and recurrent droughts threaten both agriculture and overall water security. The study analysed meteorological, remote sensing and reanalysis data for 1981-2019 using trend tests of key climate variables, extreme precipitation indices, extreme weather events like droughts, wet and dry spells, and the calculation of potential water available for groundwater recharge (GWR). The regions experience distinct wet and dry periods with evapotranspiration being the main component of water balance. Droughts are recurrent at both regions, though there is a clear difference in drought occurrence and intensity between them. Water balance analysis of the cold season indicated that there is a significant GWR (28% of annual precipitation for north and 24% for south). The mean GWR is higher in the north, the southern region is characterized by high spatial variability. Analysing hydroclimatic variability Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is proposed as a key strategy for mitigating water scarcity, floods, and droughts. In the north significant spring snowmelt (currently source of flooding) and heavy summer rainfall could be used for MAR. Whereas in the south the focus should be to store snowmelt and spring precipitation to combat the region’s severe summer droughts and reduce reliance on transboundary water sources.