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Craig W. Hutton
School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK

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Short Biography

Prof. Hutton’s applied research & consultancy focus lies at the intersection between the environment and social implications of environmental/climate change and management for sustainable development. This socio-ecological research emphasises the coordination of spatial data handling and the management/policy/governance implications of climate change/environmental vulnerability of rural communities, land cover and earth observation in decision-making support systems.

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Journal article
Published: 15 May 2021 in Sustainability
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The development of a coherent and coordinated policy for the management of large socio-agricultural systems, such as the Mekong delta in southern Vietnam, is reliant on aligning the development, delivery, and implementation of policy on national to local scales. Effective decision making is linked to a coherent, broadly-shared vision of the strategic management of socio-agricultural systems. However, when policies are ambiguous, and at worst contradictory, long-term management and planning can consequently suffer. These potential adverse impacts may be compounded if stakeholders have divergent visions of the current and future states of socio-agricultural systems. Herein we used a transferable, scenario-based methodology which uses a standard quadrant matrix in order to explore both anticipated and idealized future states. Our case study was the Mekong delta. The scenario matrix was based upon two key strategic choices (axis) for the delta, derived from analysis of policy documents, literature, stakeholder engagement, and land use models. These are: (i) who will run agriculture in the future, agri-business or the established commune system; and (ii) to what degree sustainability will be incorporated into production. During a workshop meeting, stakeholders identified that agri-business will dominate future agricultural production in the delta but showed a clear concern that sustainability might consequently be undermined despite policy claims of the contrary. As such, our study highlights an important gap between national expectations and regional perspectives. Our results suggest that the new development plans for the Mekong delta (which comprise a new Master Plan and a new 5-year socio-economic development plan), which emphasize agro-business development, should adopt approaches that address concerns of sustainability as well as a more streamlined policy formulation and implementation that accounts for stakeholder concerns at both provincial and national levels.

ACS Style

Craig Hutton; Oliver Hensengerth; Tristan Berchoux; Van Tri; Thi Tong; Nghia Hung; Hal Voepel; Stephen Darby; Duong Bui; Thi Bui; Nguyen Huy; Daniel Parsons. Stakeholder Expectations of Future Policy Implementation Compared to Formal Policy Trajectories: Scenarios for Agricultural Food Systems in the Mekong Delta. Sustainability 2021, 13, 5534 .

AMA Style

Craig Hutton, Oliver Hensengerth, Tristan Berchoux, Van Tri, Thi Tong, Nghia Hung, Hal Voepel, Stephen Darby, Duong Bui, Thi Bui, Nguyen Huy, Daniel Parsons. Stakeholder Expectations of Future Policy Implementation Compared to Formal Policy Trajectories: Scenarios for Agricultural Food Systems in the Mekong Delta. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (10):5534.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Craig Hutton; Oliver Hensengerth; Tristan Berchoux; Van Tri; Thi Tong; Nghia Hung; Hal Voepel; Stephen Darby; Duong Bui; Thi Bui; Nguyen Huy; Daniel Parsons. 2021. "Stakeholder Expectations of Future Policy Implementation Compared to Formal Policy Trajectories: Scenarios for Agricultural Food Systems in the Mekong Delta." Sustainability 13, no. 10: 5534.

Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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Land in the Indian Sundarbans Biosphere Reserve (SBR) has been extensively (and illegally) converted from agriculture to aquaculture over the last two decades, with implications for Sustainable Development Goals addressing food, poverty, employment, terrestrial and marine ecosystems and inequality. The economic returns from aquaculture are higher than agriculture, but more unequally shared, demand for labour is lower (and often fullfilled by non-local workers) and the expansion of brackish water aquaculture, in particular can contribute to the salinization of land through seepage from ponds, and intentional water management to bring saline water to farms. While remote sensing can demonstrate the conversion, the drivers behind are less clear. Much literature, along with commonly articulated stakeholder perspectives strongly suggest that sea-level rise and cyclone impacts lead to salinization, resulting in reduced agricultural productivity, leading farmers to convert to saline aquaculture as an adaptation. However, this is unclear in the Indian Sundarbans where the highest rates of conversion are not in areas which have suffered saline inundation. SBR-wide factors that affect rates of conversion include international demand for prawns, technology development and transfer, availability of seed, legal frameworks and land tenure. At a more local level, connectivity (for inputs and for marketing product), proximity to water sources, levels of cyclone inundation, salinity and agricultural productivity, existing aquaculture areas, extension services and local government (dis)incentives may explain spatial patterns of differing conversion rates. In this paper we use a two-decade long timeseries of remotely sensed data on land cover and agricultural productivity along with spatially explicit data on connectivity to evaluate which factors were most associated with conversion from agriculture to aquaculture in the past two decades. We then project future possible conversion based on scenarios of how these drivers may change over the the next decade and discuss their implications for Sustainable Development Goals.

ACS Style

Tim M. Daw; Sandip Giri; Partho Protim Mondal; Sourav Samanta; Sugata Hazra; Craig Hutton; Duncan D. Hornby; Andrew Harfoot; Kasturi Mukherjee; Radhika Gupta. What is driving conversion of land to aquaculture in the Indian Sundarbans? 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Tim M. Daw, Sandip Giri, Partho Protim Mondal, Sourav Samanta, Sugata Hazra, Craig Hutton, Duncan D. Hornby, Andrew Harfoot, Kasturi Mukherjee, Radhika Gupta. What is driving conversion of land to aquaculture in the Indian Sundarbans? . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tim M. Daw; Sandip Giri; Partho Protim Mondal; Sourav Samanta; Sugata Hazra; Craig Hutton; Duncan D. Hornby; Andrew Harfoot; Kasturi Mukherjee; Radhika Gupta. 2021. "What is driving conversion of land to aquaculture in the Indian Sundarbans?" , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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Populous deltas exemplify many of the diverse social and environmental changes and challenges that are emerging across the planet during the Anthropocene. Loss of relative elevation due to relative sea-level rise (combining climate and subsidence effects) is one major threat, but there are others such as catchment changes (e.g., water extraction and dam construction) which reduce water and sediment inputs. Rapid socio-economic changes within a delta (e.g., migration, urbanisation, economic transition and land use change) are also widespread and frequently add further pressures on the environmental resources  contained within delta systems. There are long histories of evolving adaptation practice at household to community level. In the long-term (i.e. 2100 and beyond), given relative sea-level rise, there are three distinct (but not necessarily mutually exclusive) policy choices for deltas: (i) retreat and progressive abandonment of the coastal zone; (ii) protection with ever-higher defences, growing pumping needs, and residual risk issues; or (iii) raise land elevation by controlled sedimentation. Building elevation is an attractive option if sufficient sediment is available, and there are now a few innovative examples that show it can be delivered to the delta surface— for example, through strategic raising of agricultural and natural areas with controlled sedimentation. One challenge is to accomplish this in a way which does not disrupt the livelihoods of the delta residents. Further is sufficient sediment available now or in the future, and what about growing urban areas where flood defence is likely to remain the norm? This raises the question about the trade-off between elevation and wealth. Many deltas cope with ‘lost elevation’ via defences: the Netherlands is most advanced in this approach, but such defences are expensive, require access to technology, and require sophisticated governance arrangements to deliver. A range of potential adaptation options at different scales and with different levels of cost will be required to sustain delta futures. This presentation examines potential adaptation options and trade-offs and delta trajectories in a range of examples including the Volta delta, Ghana, the Mahanadi delta, India and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, India and Bangladesh.

ACS Style

Robert Nicholls; Neil Adger; Craig Hutton; Susan Hanson; Attila Lázár; Katharine Vincent; Andrew Allan; Emma Tompkins; Iñaki Arto; Munsur Rahman; Sugata Hazra; Sam Codjoe; Stephen Darby. Sustainable Deltas in the Anthropocene. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Robert Nicholls, Neil Adger, Craig Hutton, Susan Hanson, Attila Lázár, Katharine Vincent, Andrew Allan, Emma Tompkins, Iñaki Arto, Munsur Rahman, Sugata Hazra, Sam Codjoe, Stephen Darby. Sustainable Deltas in the Anthropocene. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Robert Nicholls; Neil Adger; Craig Hutton; Susan Hanson; Attila Lázár; Katharine Vincent; Andrew Allan; Emma Tompkins; Iñaki Arto; Munsur Rahman; Sugata Hazra; Sam Codjoe; Stephen Darby. 2021. "Sustainable Deltas in the Anthropocene." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 03 March 2021
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Deltas occupy only 1% of global land surface area, but contain 7% of the global human population (ca. 500 million). The influence of changing and interacting climates, demography, economy, land use and coastal/catchment management on deltaic social-ecological systems is complex and little understood. We apply a new and innovative integrated assessment model: The Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) to coastal Bangladesh to explore a range of plausible future scenarios and quantify the sensitivities of selected environmental and socio-economic outcomes to key external and internal drivers. ΔDIEM is a tightly coupled integrated assessment platform considering climate and environmental change, demographic changes, economic changes, household decision making and governance, and designed to support the delta planning in Bangladesh. ΔDIEM allows the testing of a large number of water-based structural and policy interventions within a robust scenario framework, as well as quantify different development trajectories and their trade-offs. In this sensitivity analysis, we quantified the impact of (i) climate (precipitation, temperature and runoff), (ii) relative sea-level rise, (iii) cyclone frequency, (iv) embankment maintenance, (v) population size, (vi) economic changes at household level such as selling price of crops, cost of food, etc., (vii) land cover, and (viii) farming practices on trajectories of inundated area, soil salinity, rice productivity, poverty, income inequality and GDP/capita, assuming two contrasting scenarios in a more Positive and a more Negative World. Trajectories of these plausible futures showed a clear separation and the long-term trends are greatly influenced by the combinations of scenario assumptions. Our systemic results indicate a diverse potential set of futures for coastal Bangladesh, where good governance and adaptation could effectively mitigate the threat of sea-level rise-induced catastrophic inundation and other adverse impacts of the changing climate. However, societal inequality requires special attention otherwise climate-sensitive population groups may be left behind.

ACS Style

Attila N. Lazar; Robert J. Nicholls; Craig W. Hutton; Andres Payo; Helen Adams; Anisul Haque; Derek Clarke; Mashfiqus Salehin; Alistair Hunt; Andrew Allan; W. Neil Adger; M. Munsur Rahman. Potential social-ecological development of coastal Bangladesh through the 21st century. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Attila N. Lazar, Robert J. Nicholls, Craig W. Hutton, Andres Payo, Helen Adams, Anisul Haque, Derek Clarke, Mashfiqus Salehin, Alistair Hunt, Andrew Allan, W. Neil Adger, M. Munsur Rahman. Potential social-ecological development of coastal Bangladesh through the 21st century. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Attila N. Lazar; Robert J. Nicholls; Craig W. Hutton; Andres Payo; Helen Adams; Anisul Haque; Derek Clarke; Mashfiqus Salehin; Alistair Hunt; Andrew Allan; W. Neil Adger; M. Munsur Rahman. 2021. "Potential social-ecological development of coastal Bangladesh through the 21st century." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 18 February 2021 in Water
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The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their corresponding targets are significantly interconnected, with many interactions, synergies, and trade-offs between individual goals across multiple temporal and spatial scales. This paper proposes a framework for the Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) of a complex deltaic socio-ecological system in order to analyze such SDG interactions. We focused on the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR), India, within the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. It is densely populated with 4.4 million people (2011), high levels of poverty, and a strong dependence on rural livelihoods. It is adjacent to the growing megacity of Kolkata. The area also includes the Indian portion of the world’s largest mangrove forest––the Sundarbans––hosting the iconic Bengal Tiger. Like all deltaic systems, this area is subject to multiple drivers of environmental change operating across scales. The IAM framework is designed to investigate socio-environmental change under a range of explorative and/or normative scenarios and explore associated policy impacts, considering a broad range of subthematic SDG indicators. The following elements were explicitly considered: (1) agriculture; (2) aquaculture; (3) mangroves; (4) fisheries; and (5) multidimensional poverty. Key questions that can be addressed include the implications of changing monsoon patterns, trade-offs between agriculture and aquaculture, or the future of the Sundarbans’ mangroves under sea-level rise and different management strategies. The novel, high-resolution analysis of SDG interactions allowed by the IAM will provide stakeholders and policy makers the opportunity to prioritize and explore the SDG targets that are most relevant to the SBR and provide a foundation for further integrated analysis.

ACS Style

Charlotte Marcinko; Robert Nicholls; Tim Daw; Sugata Hazra; Craig Hutton; Chris Hill; Derek Clarke; Andy Harfoot; Oindrila Basu; Isha Das; Sandip Giri; Sudipa Pal; Partho Mondal. The Development of a Framework for the Integrated Assessment of SDG Trade-Offs in the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve. Water 2021, 13, 528 .

AMA Style

Charlotte Marcinko, Robert Nicholls, Tim Daw, Sugata Hazra, Craig Hutton, Chris Hill, Derek Clarke, Andy Harfoot, Oindrila Basu, Isha Das, Sandip Giri, Sudipa Pal, Partho Mondal. The Development of a Framework for the Integrated Assessment of SDG Trade-Offs in the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve. Water. 2021; 13 (4):528.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Charlotte Marcinko; Robert Nicholls; Tim Daw; Sugata Hazra; Craig Hutton; Chris Hill; Derek Clarke; Andy Harfoot; Oindrila Basu; Isha Das; Sandip Giri; Sudipa Pal; Partho Mondal. 2021. "The Development of a Framework for the Integrated Assessment of SDG Trade-Offs in the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve." Water 13, no. 4: 528.

Preprint content
Published: 23 March 2020
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There is growing recognition that new approaches, underpinned by more system-oriented decision support tools, will be required to facilitate development compatible with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and to prevent the risk of dangerous socio-environmental breakdown. We demonstrate the potential of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to inform strategic policy decision making at a regional level, helping to understand key trade-offs as well as indirect or unintended impacts. The stakeholder co-produced Delta Dynamic Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) model is applied to the southwest coastal zone (pop. 14m) where high rates of extreme poverty prevail. The model integrates biophysical drivers, ecosystem services and community level household wellbeing, and in this work is applied an behalf of the Planning Commission of the Government of Bangladesh in order to assess strategic risk in coastal Bangladesh (2050) and particularly to support the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100. The intervention we investigated included i) A proposed extensive polder network in the south-central region of coastal Bangladesh ii) Strategic development of a chronically waterlogged area of the delta. In both areas we highlight insights on implications of biophysical drivers on poverty, livelihoods and inequality as well as on risk transfer between regions and populations associated with implementation. In doing so we critically assess IAMs’ growing potential to ask and explore key questions and scenarios about the functioning of integrated biophysical and socioeconomic systems. Finally, we point to ongoing applications of the model in West Bengal

ACS Style

Craig Hutton; Robert Nicholls; Alex Chapman; Charlotte Marcinko; Munsur Rahman; Anisul Haque; Andrew Harfoot; Sugata Hazra; Maskfiq Salehin. Application of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to for strategic scale delta assessment of socio-ecological risk: Supporting Policy in Coastal Bangladesh. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Craig Hutton, Robert Nicholls, Alex Chapman, Charlotte Marcinko, Munsur Rahman, Anisul Haque, Andrew Harfoot, Sugata Hazra, Maskfiq Salehin. Application of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to for strategic scale delta assessment of socio-ecological risk: Supporting Policy in Coastal Bangladesh. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Craig Hutton; Robert Nicholls; Alex Chapman; Charlotte Marcinko; Munsur Rahman; Anisul Haque; Andrew Harfoot; Sugata Hazra; Maskfiq Salehin. 2020. "Application of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to for strategic scale delta assessment of socio-ecological risk: Supporting Policy in Coastal Bangladesh." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 23 March 2020
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The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) promote sustainable development and aim to address multiple challenges including those related to poverty, hunger, inequality, climate change and environmental degradation. Interlinkages between SDGS means there is potential for interactions, synergies and trade-offs between individual goals across multiple temporal and spatial scales. We aim to develop an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of a complex deltaic socio-ecological system where opportunities and trade-offs between the SDGs can be analysed. This is designed to inform local/regional policy. We focus on the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR) within the Indian Ganga Delta. This is home to 5.6 million often poor people with a strong dependence on rural livelihoods and also includes the Indian portion of the world’s largest mangrove forest – the Sundarbans. The area is subject to multiple drivers of environmental change operating at multiple scales (e.g. global climate change and sea-level rise, deltaic subsidence, extensive land use conversion and widespread migration). Here we discuss the challenges of linking models of human and natural systems to each other in the context of local policy decisions and SDG indicators. Challenges include linking processes derived at multiple spatial and temporal scales and data limitations. We present a framework for an IAM, based on the Delta Dynamic Emulator Model (ΔDIEM), to investigate the affects of current and future trends in environmental change and policy decisions within the SBR across a broad range of sub-thematic SDG indicators. This work brings together a wealth of experience in understanding and modelling changes in complex human and natural systems within deltas from previous projects (ESPA Deltas and DECCMA), along with local government and stakeholder expert knowledge within the Indian Ganga Delta.

ACS Style

Charlotte Marcinko; Andrew Harfoot; Tim Daw; Derek Clarke; Sugata Hazra; Craig Hutton; Chris Hill; Attila Lazar; Robert Nicholls. Synergies and trade-offs for the SDGs in a deltaic socio-ecological system: Development of an Integrated Assessment Model. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Charlotte Marcinko, Andrew Harfoot, Tim Daw, Derek Clarke, Sugata Hazra, Craig Hutton, Chris Hill, Attila Lazar, Robert Nicholls. Synergies and trade-offs for the SDGs in a deltaic socio-ecological system: Development of an Integrated Assessment Model. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Charlotte Marcinko; Andrew Harfoot; Tim Daw; Derek Clarke; Sugata Hazra; Craig Hutton; Chris Hill; Attila Lazar; Robert Nicholls. 2020. "Synergies and trade-offs for the SDGs in a deltaic socio-ecological system: Development of an Integrated Assessment Model." , no. : 1.

Chapter
Published: 29 August 2019 in Deltas in the Anthropocene
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This chapter examines the societal response to diverse environmental and social dynamics within deltas during the Anthropocene era and the challenges for future adaptation. It illustrates these dynamics through unique data on the diversity and success of the range of adaptive actions undertaken by contemporary populations as well as perceptions of environmental change. There is a lived reality and social distribution of vulnerability across dimensions such as gender, age and class: different groups have different capacities to adapt, incentives to adapt, and are included or excluded from strategies of adaptation. There are options and interventions for adaptation to environmental change that already being undertaken across deltas.

ACS Style

Emma L. Tompkins; Katharine Vincent; Natalie Suckall; Rezaur Rahman; Tuhin Ghosh; Adelina Mensah; Kirk Anderson; Alexander Chapman; Giorgia Prati; Craig W. Hutton; Sophie Day; Victoria Price. Adapting to Change: People and Policies. Deltas in the Anthropocene 2019, 201 -222.

AMA Style

Emma L. Tompkins, Katharine Vincent, Natalie Suckall, Rezaur Rahman, Tuhin Ghosh, Adelina Mensah, Kirk Anderson, Alexander Chapman, Giorgia Prati, Craig W. Hutton, Sophie Day, Victoria Price. Adapting to Change: People and Policies. Deltas in the Anthropocene. 2019; ():201-222.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Emma L. Tompkins; Katharine Vincent; Natalie Suckall; Rezaur Rahman; Tuhin Ghosh; Adelina Mensah; Kirk Anderson; Alexander Chapman; Giorgia Prati; Craig W. Hutton; Sophie Day; Victoria Price. 2019. "Adapting to Change: People and Policies." Deltas in the Anthropocene , no. : 201-222.

Chapter
Published: 29 August 2019 in Deltas in the Anthropocene
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Policy development and management of deltas in the Anthropocene involves the consideration of trade-offs and the balancing of positive and negative consequences for delta functions and the societies that rely on them. This assessment outlines policy-driven and spatial trade-offs that dominate the landscape of choice. It highlights examples of such trade-offs using plausible delta futures and the governance choices associated with them. The analysis is based on modelling broad-scale processes and individual adaptive actions. It highlights how policy choices to maximise economic growth can, for example, have unforeseen consequences such as diminished well-being for some populations. Hence the chapter concludes that trade-offs are a crucial governance challenge for future sustainability of deltas.

ACS Style

Attila N. Lázár; Susan E. Hanson; Robert J. Nicholls; Andrew Allan; Craig W. Hutton; Mashfiqus Salehin; Abiy S. Kebede. Choices: Future Trade-Offs and Plausible Pathways. Deltas in the Anthropocene 2019, 223 -245.

AMA Style

Attila N. Lázár, Susan E. Hanson, Robert J. Nicholls, Andrew Allan, Craig W. Hutton, Mashfiqus Salehin, Abiy S. Kebede. Choices: Future Trade-Offs and Plausible Pathways. Deltas in the Anthropocene. 2019; ():223-245.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Attila N. Lázár; Susan E. Hanson; Robert J. Nicholls; Andrew Allan; Craig W. Hutton; Mashfiqus Salehin; Abiy S. Kebede. 2019. "Choices: Future Trade-Offs and Plausible Pathways." Deltas in the Anthropocene , no. : 223-245.

Journal article
Published: 18 May 2019 in Landscape and Urban Planning
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Spatial factors, such as environmental conditions, distance to natural resources and access to services can influence the impacts of climate change on rural household livelihood activities. But neither the determinants of precarious livelihoods nor their spatial context has been well understood. This paper investigates the drivers of livelihood precariousness using a place-based approach. We identify five community types in rural regions of the Mahanadi Delta, India; exurban, agro-industrial, rainfed agriculture, irrigated agriculture and resource periphery by clustering three types of community capitals (natural, social and physical). Based on this typology, we characterise the associations between precarious livelihood activities (unemployment or engagement in agricultural labour) with agricultural shocks and household capitals. Results demonstrate that, the type of community influences the impact of agricultural shocks on livelihoods as four of the five community types had increased likelihoods of precarious livelihoods being pursued when agricultural shocks increased. Our research demonstrates that the bundle of locally available community capitals influences households' coping strategies and livelihood opportunities. For example, higher levels of physical capital were associated with a lower likelihood of precarious livelihoods in agro-industrial communities but had no significant impact in the other four. Results also indicate that agricultural shocks drive livelihood precariousness (odds ratios between 1.03 and 1.07) for all but the best-connected communities, while access to household capitals tends to reduce it. Our results suggest that poverty alleviation programmes should include community typologies in their approach to provide place-specific interventions that would strengthen context-specific household capitals, thus reducing livelihood precariousness.

ACS Style

Tristan Berchoux; Gary R. Watmough; Craig W. Hutton; Peter M. Atkinson. Agricultural shocks and drivers of livelihood precariousness across Indian rural communities. Landscape and Urban Planning 2019, 189, 307 -319.

AMA Style

Tristan Berchoux, Gary R. Watmough, Craig W. Hutton, Peter M. Atkinson. Agricultural shocks and drivers of livelihood precariousness across Indian rural communities. Landscape and Urban Planning. 2019; 189 ():307-319.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tristan Berchoux; Gary R. Watmough; Craig W. Hutton; Peter M. Atkinson. 2019. "Agricultural shocks and drivers of livelihood precariousness across Indian rural communities." Landscape and Urban Planning 189, no. : 307-319.

Journal article
Published: 06 April 2019 in Science of The Total Environment
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The Mekong delta is recognised as one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas, being subject to a range of environmental pressures including sea level rise, increasing population, and changes in flows and nutrients from its upland catchment. With changing climate and socioeconomics there is a need to assess how the Mekong catchment will be affected in terms of the delivery of water and nutrients into the delta system. Here we apply the Integrated Catchment model (INCA) to the whole Mekong River Basin to simulate flow and water quality, including nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus and soluble reactive phosphorus. The impacts of climate change on all these variables have been assessed across 24 river reaches ranging from the Himalayas down to the delta in Vietnam. We used the UK Met Office PRECIS regionally coupled climate model to downscale precipitation and temperature to the Mekong catchment. This was accomplished using the Global Circulation Model GFDL-CM to provide the boundary conditions under two carbon control strategies, namely representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and a RCP 8.5 scenario. The RCP 4.5 scenario represents the carbon strategy required to meet the Paris Accord, which aims to limit peak global temperatures to below a 2 °C rise whilst seeking to pursue options that limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The RCP 8.5 scenario is associated with a larger 3–4 °C rise. In addition, we also constructed a range of socio-economic scenarios to investigate the potential impacts of changing population, atmospheric pollution, economic growth and land use change up to the 2050s. Results of INCA simulations indicate increases in mean flows of up to 24%, with flood flows in the monsoon period increasing by up to 27%, but with increasing periods of drought up to 2050. A shift in the timing of the monsoon is also simulated, with a 4 week advance in the onset of monsoon flows on average. Decreases in nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations occur primarily due to flow dilution, but fluxes of these nutrients also increase by 5%, which reflects the changing flow, land use change and population changes.

ACS Style

P.G. Whitehead; L. Jin; G. Bussi; Hal Voepel; Stephen Darby; Grigorios Vasilopoulos; R. Manley; H. Rodda; Craig Hutton; Christopher Hackney; Van Pham Dang Tri; N.N. Hung. Water quality modelling of the Mekong River basin: Climate change and socioeconomics drive flow and nutrient flux changes to the Mekong Delta. Science of The Total Environment 2019, 673, 218 -229.

AMA Style

P.G. Whitehead, L. Jin, G. Bussi, Hal Voepel, Stephen Darby, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, R. Manley, H. Rodda, Craig Hutton, Christopher Hackney, Van Pham Dang Tri, N.N. Hung. Water quality modelling of the Mekong River basin: Climate change and socioeconomics drive flow and nutrient flux changes to the Mekong Delta. Science of The Total Environment. 2019; 673 ():218-229.

Chicago/Turabian Style

P.G. Whitehead; L. Jin; G. Bussi; Hal Voepel; Stephen Darby; Grigorios Vasilopoulos; R. Manley; H. Rodda; Craig Hutton; Christopher Hackney; Van Pham Dang Tri; N.N. Hung. 2019. "Water quality modelling of the Mekong River basin: Climate change and socioeconomics drive flow and nutrient flux changes to the Mekong Delta." Science of The Total Environment 673, no. : 218-229.

Research article
Published: 09 March 2019 in Ambio
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The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-019-01150-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

ACS Style

Tristan Berchoux; Gary R. Watmough; Fiifi Amoako Johnson; Craig W. Hutton; Peter M. Atkinson. Collective influence of household and community capitals on agricultural employment as a measure of rural poverty in the Mahanadi Delta, India. Ambio 2019, 49, 281 -298.

AMA Style

Tristan Berchoux, Gary R. Watmough, Fiifi Amoako Johnson, Craig W. Hutton, Peter M. Atkinson. Collective influence of household and community capitals on agricultural employment as a measure of rural poverty in the Mahanadi Delta, India. Ambio. 2019; 49 (1):281-298.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tristan Berchoux; Gary R. Watmough; Fiifi Amoako Johnson; Craig W. Hutton; Peter M. Atkinson. 2019. "Collective influence of household and community capitals on agricultural employment as a measure of rural poverty in the Mahanadi Delta, India." Ambio 49, no. 1: 281-298.

Journal article
Published: 29 January 2019 in Applied Geography
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Despite the increasing interest of the Sustainable Livelihood Framework in the field of international development and in academia and the recent call for the use of mixed-methods approach, there has been little analysis that brings together qualitative and quantitative methods over a large geographical extent. Based on findings from participatory rural appraisals during which participants identified the key assets needed to achieve their livelihoods, this paper argues that common-pool resources (community capitals) should be differentiated from private goods (household capitals) as they operate under different dynamics of decision-making and management. We then create quantitative indicators that can be mapped across a large geographical extent by using data derived from national census and satellite sensors. Spatial patterns and differentials in access to livelihood capitals across the case study are examined and the associations that exist between household capitals, between community capitals, and between both are quantified. The results demonstrate that household physical capital is positively associated with household financial and social capitals but negatively associated with household natural capital, supporting the hypothesis that households trade their natural assets to cope with shocks. It is also shown that proximity to main axes of communication increases access to village amenities but decreases access to natural resources, while remoteness increases household human capital but decreases household physical and financial capitals. Such a cross-scale study adds to the understanding of the question of scale regarding rural livelihoods and community development, which could act as a bridge between the implementation of policy programmes (often targeted at the community level) and their expected outcomes (often targeted at the household level).

ACS Style

Tristan Berchoux; Craig W. Hutton. Spatial associations between household and community livelihood capitals in rural territories: An example from the Mahanadi Delta, India. Applied Geography 2019, 103, 98 -111.

AMA Style

Tristan Berchoux, Craig W. Hutton. Spatial associations between household and community livelihood capitals in rural territories: An example from the Mahanadi Delta, India. Applied Geography. 2019; 103 ():98-111.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tristan Berchoux; Craig W. Hutton. 2019. "Spatial associations between household and community livelihood capitals in rural territories: An example from the Mahanadi Delta, India." Applied Geography 103, no. : 98-111.

Journal article
Published: 01 September 2018 in Science of The Total Environment
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To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP–SSP–SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges.

ACS Style

Abiy S. Kebede; Robert Nicholls; Andrew Allan; Iñaki Arto; Ignacio Cazcarro; Jose A. Fernandes; Chris T. Hill; Craig Hutton; Susan Kay; Attila N. Lázár; Ian Macadam; Matthew Palmer; Natalie Suckall; Emma L. Tompkins; Katharine Vincent; Paul W. Whitehead. Applying the global RCP–SSP–SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach. Science of The Total Environment 2018, 635, 659 -672.

AMA Style

Abiy S. Kebede, Robert Nicholls, Andrew Allan, Iñaki Arto, Ignacio Cazcarro, Jose A. Fernandes, Chris T. Hill, Craig Hutton, Susan Kay, Attila N. Lázár, Ian Macadam, Matthew Palmer, Natalie Suckall, Emma L. Tompkins, Katharine Vincent, Paul W. Whitehead. Applying the global RCP–SSP–SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach. Science of The Total Environment. 2018; 635 ():659-672.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Abiy S. Kebede; Robert Nicholls; Andrew Allan; Iñaki Arto; Ignacio Cazcarro; Jose A. Fernandes; Chris T. Hill; Craig Hutton; Susan Kay; Attila N. Lázár; Ian Macadam; Matthew Palmer; Natalie Suckall; Emma L. Tompkins; Katharine Vincent; Paul W. Whitehead. 2018. "Applying the global RCP–SSP–SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach." Science of The Total Environment 635, no. : 659-672.

Book chapter
Published: 14 August 2018 in Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas
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ACS Style

Robert J. Nicholls; Craig W. Hutton; W. Neil Adger; Susan E. Hanson; Munsur Rahman; Mashfiqus Salehin. Erratum to: Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis. Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas 2018, E1 -E1.

AMA Style

Robert J. Nicholls, Craig W. Hutton, W. Neil Adger, Susan E. Hanson, Munsur Rahman, Mashfiqus Salehin. Erratum to: Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis. Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas. 2018; ():E1-E1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Robert J. Nicholls; Craig W. Hutton; W. Neil Adger; Susan E. Hanson; Munsur Rahman; Mashfiqus Salehin. 2018. "Erratum to: Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas: Integrated Assessment for Policy Analysis." Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas , no. : E1-E1.

Journal article
Published: 01 August 2018 in Science of The Total Environment
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Deltas are precarious environments experiencing significant biophysical, and socio-economic changes with the ebb and flow of seasons (including with floods and drought), with infrastructural developments (such as dikes and polders), with the movement of people, and as a result of climate and environmental variability and change. Decisions are being taken about the future of deltas and about the provision of adaptation investment to enable people and the environment to respond to the changing climate and related changes. The paper presents a framework to identify options for, and trade-offs between, long term adaptation strategies in deltas. Using a three step process, we: (1) identify current policy-led adaptations actions in deltas by conducting literature searches on current observable adaptations, potential transformational adaptations and government policy; (2) develop narratives of future adaptation policy directions that take into account investment cost of adaptation and the extent to which significant policy change/political effort is required; and (3) explore trade-offs that occur within each policy direction using a subjective weighting process developed during a collaborative expert workshop. We conclude that the process of developing policy directions for adaptation can assist policy makers in scoping the spectrum of options that exist, while enabling them to consider their own willingness to make significant policy changes within the delta and to initiate transformative change.

ACS Style

Natalie Suckall; Emma L. Tompkins; Robert Nicholls; Abiy S. Kebede; Attila N. Lázár; Craig Hutton; Katharine Vincent; Andrew Allan; Alex Chapman; Rezaur Rahman; Tuhin Ghosh; Adelina Mensah. A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas. Science of The Total Environment 2018, 633, 946 -957.

AMA Style

Natalie Suckall, Emma L. Tompkins, Robert Nicholls, Abiy S. Kebede, Attila N. Lázár, Craig Hutton, Katharine Vincent, Andrew Allan, Alex Chapman, Rezaur Rahman, Tuhin Ghosh, Adelina Mensah. A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas. Science of The Total Environment. 2018; 633 ():946-957.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Natalie Suckall; Emma L. Tompkins; Robert Nicholls; Abiy S. Kebede; Attila N. Lázár; Craig Hutton; Katharine Vincent; Andrew Allan; Alex Chapman; Rezaur Rahman; Tuhin Ghosh; Adelina Mensah. 2018. "A framework for identifying and selecting long term adaptation policy directions for deltas." Science of The Total Environment 633, no. : 946-957.

Journal article
Published: 17 June 2018 in Sustainability
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Poverty eradication is currently a central issue within the national economic development strategy in developing countries. Understanding the spatial changes and possible drivers of poverty from different geographical perspectives has the potential to provide a policy-relevant understanding of the trends in poverty. By district-level data, poverty incidence (PI), and a statistical analysis of the period from 2005 to 2011 in Nepal, we used the location quotient (LQ), as well as the Lorenz curve, to inspect the poverty concentration and the spatial-temporal variation of poverty in Nepal. As such, this study analyzed the change in identified typologies of poverty using an approach, which accounts for inter-regional and three identified terrain components. The PI methodological approach was applied in order to (i) compare the spatial change in poverty for Nepal during the study period from a geographical-administrative perspective and (ii) to develop Lorenze curves which show the change of poverty concentration over the study period. Within the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) approach, PI was further used, in combination with the indices of poverty gap (PG) and squared poverty gap (SPG), in order to highlight the unidimensional poverty (UP), that is the incidence, depth, and severity of poverty between 2005 and 2011. Simultaneously, the spatial relationship between UP and economic development was assessed, leading to five specific economic modes or typologies of poverty. Our findings identified that proportional poverty appears to have grown in mountainous areas as well as more urbanized and developed regions, while the mid hill regions have steadily reduced proportions of poverty. We propose a hypothesis, for further examination, which suggests that the increase in proportional poverty in the mountain regions is as a result of the migration to the urban areas of Nepal of the relatively less poor, leaving behind a trapped poorer population. This migration to urban areas of the relatively less poor, rather counterintuitively, produced an increase in proportional poverty in the urban areas. This is due to the fact that while this population represents the wealthier mountain communities, they are still relatively poor in an urban setting.

ACS Style

Jifei Zhang; Chunyan Liu; Craig Hutton; Hriday Lal Koirala. Geographical Dynamics of Poverty in Nepal between 2005 and 2011: Where and How? Sustainability 2018, 10, 2055 .

AMA Style

Jifei Zhang, Chunyan Liu, Craig Hutton, Hriday Lal Koirala. Geographical Dynamics of Poverty in Nepal between 2005 and 2011: Where and How? Sustainability. 2018; 10 (6):2055.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jifei Zhang; Chunyan Liu; Craig Hutton; Hriday Lal Koirala. 2018. "Geographical Dynamics of Poverty in Nepal between 2005 and 2011: Where and How?" Sustainability 10, no. 6: 2055.

Chapter
Published: 30 May 2018 in Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas
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A flexible meta-model, the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM), is developed to capture the socio-biophysical system of coastal Bangladesh as simply and efficiently as possible. Operating at the local scale, calculations occur efficiently using a variety of methods, including linear statistical emulators, which capture the behaviour of more complex models, internal process-based models and statistical associations. All components are tightly coupled, tested and validated, and their behaviour is explored with sensitivity tests. Using input data, the integrated model approximates the spatial and temporal change in ecosystem services and a number of livelihood, well-being, poverty and health indicators of archetypal households. Through the use of climate, socio-economic and governance scenarios plausible trajectories and futures of coastal Bangladesh can be explored.

ACS Style

Attila N. Lázár; Andres Payo; Helen Adams; Ali Ahmed; Andrew Allan; Abdur Razzaque Akanda; Fiifi Amoako Johnson; Emily J. Barbour; Sujit Kumar Biswas; John Caesar; Alexander Chapman; Derek Clarke; Jose A. Fernandes; Anisul Haque; Mostafa A. R. Hossain; Alistair Hunt; Craig Hutton; Susan Kay; Anirban Mukhopadhyay; Robert Nicholls; Abul Fazal M. Saleh; Mashfiqus Salehin; Sylvia Szabo; Paul G. Whitehead. Integrative Analysis Applying the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model in South-West Coastal Bangladesh. Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas 2018, 525 -574.

AMA Style

Attila N. Lázár, Andres Payo, Helen Adams, Ali Ahmed, Andrew Allan, Abdur Razzaque Akanda, Fiifi Amoako Johnson, Emily J. Barbour, Sujit Kumar Biswas, John Caesar, Alexander Chapman, Derek Clarke, Jose A. Fernandes, Anisul Haque, Mostafa A. R. Hossain, Alistair Hunt, Craig Hutton, Susan Kay, Anirban Mukhopadhyay, Robert Nicholls, Abul Fazal M. Saleh, Mashfiqus Salehin, Sylvia Szabo, Paul G. Whitehead. Integrative Analysis Applying the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model in South-West Coastal Bangladesh. Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas. 2018; ():525-574.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Attila N. Lázár; Andres Payo; Helen Adams; Ali Ahmed; Andrew Allan; Abdur Razzaque Akanda; Fiifi Amoako Johnson; Emily J. Barbour; Sujit Kumar Biswas; John Caesar; Alexander Chapman; Derek Clarke; Jose A. Fernandes; Anisul Haque; Mostafa A. R. Hossain; Alistair Hunt; Craig Hutton; Susan Kay; Anirban Mukhopadhyay; Robert Nicholls; Abul Fazal M. Saleh; Mashfiqus Salehin; Sylvia Szabo; Paul G. Whitehead. 2018. "Integrative Analysis Applying the Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model in South-West Coastal Bangladesh." Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas , no. : 525-574.

Chapter
Published: 30 May 2018 in Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas
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The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta in Bangladesh is one of the world’s most dynamic deltas and supports high population densities based on large provisioning ecosystem services. Analysing the future of these ecosystem services and associated human livelihoods represents a complex multi-scale, multi-disciplinary problem. A conceptual framework aims to identify mechanisms that link physical processes (including climate change) with ecosystem services and social outcomes providing a shared basis for other analysis, including the design of an integrated model. This also allows the characteristics of co-production of ecosystem services at the landscape scale and significant trade-offs between types of ecosystem services to be incorporated. Adopting a systems-based approach of this scale is challenging but essential to support the effective management of coastal Bangladesh.

ACS Style

Robert J. Nicholls; Craig W. Hutton; William Neil Adger; Susan Hanson; Munsur Rahman; Mashfiqus Salehin. Integrative Analysis for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta, Bangladesh. Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas 2018, 71 -90.

AMA Style

Robert J. Nicholls, Craig W. Hutton, William Neil Adger, Susan Hanson, Munsur Rahman, Mashfiqus Salehin. Integrative Analysis for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta, Bangladesh. Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas. 2018; ():71-90.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Robert J. Nicholls; Craig W. Hutton; William Neil Adger; Susan Hanson; Munsur Rahman; Mashfiqus Salehin. 2018. "Integrative Analysis for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta, Bangladesh." Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas , no. : 71-90.

Chapter
Published: 30 May 2018 in Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas
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Land cover and land use (LCLU) analysis is a central determinant of the current and future relationship between people and local ecosystem services. It provides the spatial basis for the integrated analysis of the study area. Historical change (1989–2010) is identified using classification techniques based on available satellite imagery supported by other data. Nine categories of LULC are identified; water, Bagda (brackish shrimp farming), Galda (freshwater prawn farming), agriculture (non-waterlogged), agriculture (waterlogged), wetlands and mudflats, mangrove, rural settlements and major urban areas. The analysis shows an increase in aquaculture (mainly replacing rice fields), with agriculture becoming more intermixed with settlements. Future LULC scenarios are determined based on stakeholder narratives.

ACS Style

Anirban Mukhopadhyay; Duncan D. Hornby; Craig W. Hutton; Attila N. Lázár; Fiifi Amoako Johnson; Tuhin Ghosh. Land Cover and Land Use Analysis in Coastal Bangladesh. Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas 2018, 367 -381.

AMA Style

Anirban Mukhopadhyay, Duncan D. Hornby, Craig W. Hutton, Attila N. Lázár, Fiifi Amoako Johnson, Tuhin Ghosh. Land Cover and Land Use Analysis in Coastal Bangladesh. Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas. 2018; ():367-381.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Anirban Mukhopadhyay; Duncan D. Hornby; Craig W. Hutton; Attila N. Lázár; Fiifi Amoako Johnson; Tuhin Ghosh. 2018. "Land Cover and Land Use Analysis in Coastal Bangladesh." Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas , no. : 367-381.