Climate surfaces are digital representations of climatic variables from a region in the planet estimated via geographical interpolation techniques. Climate surfaces have multiple applications in research planning, experimental design, and technology transfer. Although high‐resolution climatologies have been developed worldwide, Mexico is one of the few countries that have developed several climatic surfaces. Here, we present an updated high‐resolution (30 arc sec) climatic surfaces for Mexico for the average monthly climate period 1910–2009, corresponding to monthly values of precipitation, daily maximum, and minimum temperature, as well as 19 bioclimatic variables derived from the monthly precipitation and temperature values. To produce these surfaces we applied the thin‐plate smoothing spline interpolation algorithm implemented in the ANUSPLIN software to nearly 5000 climate weather stations countrywide. As an additional product and unlike the previous efforts, we generated monthly standard error surfaces for the three climate parameters, which can be used for error assessment when using these climate surfaces. Our climate surface predicted slightly drier and cooler conditions than the previous ones. ANUSPLIN diagnostic statistics indicated that model fit was adequate. We implemented a more recent error assessment, a set of withheld stations to perform an independent evaluation of the model surfaces. We estimate the mean absolute error and mean error, with the withheld data and all the available data. Average RTGCV for monthly temperatures was of 1.26–1.12 °C and 24.67% for monthly precipitation, and a RTMSE of 0.48–0.56 °C and 11.11%. The main advantage of the surfaces presented here regarding the other three developed for the country is that ours cover practically the entire 20th century and almost the entire first decade of the 21st century. It is the most up to date high‐resolution climatology for the country.
Land use and climate change are affecting the abundance and distribution of species. The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) is a very diverse region due to geological history, geographic position, and climate. It is also one of the most disturbed regions in Mexico. Reptiles are particularly sensitive to environmental changes due to their low dispersal capacity and thermal ecology. In this study, we define the important environmental variables (considering climate, topography, and land use) and potential distribution (present and future) of the five Thamnophis species present in TMVB. To do so, we used the maximum entropy modeling software (MAXENT). First, we modeled to select the most important variables to explain the distribution of each species, then we modeled again using only the most important variables and projected these models to the future considering a middle-moderate climate change scenario (rcp45), and land use and vegetation variables for the year 2050 (generated according to land use changes that occurred between years 2002 and 2011). Arid vegetation had an important negative effect on habitat suitability for all species, and minimum temperature of the coldest month was important for four of the five species. Thamnophis cyrtopsis was the species with the lowest tolerance to minimum temperatures. The maximum temperature of the warmest month was important for T. scalaris and T. cyrtopsis. Low percentages of agriculture were positive for T. eques and T. melanogaster but, at higher values, agriculture had a negative effect on habitat suitability for both species. Elevation was the most important variable to explain T. eques and T. melanogaster potential distribution while distance to Abies forests was the most important variable for T. scalaris and T. scaliger. All species had a high proportion of their potential distribution in the TMVB. However, according to our models, all Thamnophis species will experience reductions in their potential distribution in this region. T. scalaris will suffer the biggest reduction because this species is limited by high temperatures and will not be able to shift its distribution upward, as it is already present in the highest elevations of the TMVB.
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1 December 2021 in Journal for Nature Conservation
Male secondary sexual traits may increase the risk of predation because mating signals make them conspicuous to predators and hamper evasive manoeuvres. Males of Xenotoca variata, a viviparous freshwater fish, show on their flanks bright and colourful spots (speckles), the number of which varies geographically. In this study, the association of this variation with the presence of the piscivorous snake Thamnophis melanogaster, which co‐occurs with X. variata, was investigated. A test was also done to establish whether the snake distinguishes between male fish with contrasting numbers of speckles and if the perception of speckles is influenced by water turbidity. The amount of speckling and the prevalence of snakes in key localities was assessed by using one‐way mirrors, and the effect of speckles on the predatory responsiveness of snakes was evaluated by presenting them with pairs of male fish in clear and in turbid water. In localities where snakes were infrequent there was a tendency for male fish to have many speckles. The snakes preferentially approached the males with more speckles than the males with fewer speckles. The direction of the preference did not change with the conditions of the water, but the magnitude was stronger in clear water than in turbid water. The snakes also approached first the males with more speckles. These findings indicate that predation risk by T. melanogaster may select against speckles and produce population differentiation.