Atropine is a common treatment used in children with myopia. However, it probably affects intraocular pressure (IOP) under some conditions. Our research aims to analyze clinical data by using machine learning models to evaluate the effect of 19 important factors on intraocular pressure (IOP) in children with myopia treated with topical atropine. The data is collected on 1545 eyes with spherical equivalent (SE) less than −10.0 diopters (D) treated with atropine for myopia control. Four machine learning models, namely multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), classification and regression tree (CART), random forest (RF), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), were used. Linear regression (LR) was used for benchmarking. The 10-fold cross-validation method was used to estimate the performance of the five methods. The main outcome measure is that the 19 important factors associated with atropine use that may affect IOP are evaluated using machine learning models. Endpoint IOP at the last visit was set as the target variable. The results show that the top five significant variables, including baseline IOP, recruitment duration, age, total duration and previous cumulative dosage, were identified as most significant for evaluating the effect of atropine use for treating myopia on IOP. We can conclude that the use of machine learning methods to evaluate factors that affect IOP in children with myopia treated with topical atropine is promising. XGBoost is the best predictive model, and baseline IOP is the most accurate predictive factor for endpoint IOP among all machine learning approaches.

Purpose: The treatment of childhood myopia often involves the use of topical atropine, which has been demonstrated to be effective in decelerating the progression of myopia. It is crucial to monitor intraocular pressure (IOP) to ensure the safety of topical atropine. This study aims to identify the optimal machine learning IOP-monitoring module and establish a precise baseline IOP as a clinical safety reference for atropine medication. Methods: Data from 1545 eyes of 1171 children receiving atropine for myopia were retrospectively analyzed. Nineteen variables including patient demographics, medical history, refractive error, and IOP measurements were considered. The data were analyzed using a multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) model to analyze the impact of different factors on the End IOP. Results: The MARS model identified age, baseline IOP, End Spherical, duration of previous atropine treatment, and duration of current atropine treatment as the five most significant factors influencing the End IOP. The outcomes revealed that the baseline IOP had the most significant effect on final IOP, exhibiting a notable knot at 14 mmHg. When the baseline IOP was equal to or exceeded 14 mmHg, there was a positive correlation between atropine use and End IOP, suggesting that atropine may increase the End IOP in children with a baseline IOP greater than 14 mmHg. Conclusions: MARS model demonstrates a better ability to capture nonlinearity than classic multiple linear regression for predicting End IOP. It is crucial to acknowledge that administrating atropine may elevate intraocular pressure when the baseline IOP exceeds 14 mmHg. These findings offer valuable insights into factors affecting IOP in children undergoing atropine treatment for myopia, enabling clinicians to make informed decisions regarding treatment options.

Background and Objectives: The rising prevalence of myopia is a significant global health concern. Atropine eye drops are commonly used to slow myopia progression in children, but their long-term use raises concern about intraocular pressure (IOP). This study uses SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to improve the interpretability of machine learning (ML) model predicting end IOP, offering clinicians explainable insights for personalized patient management. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study analyzed data from 1191 individual eyes of 639 boys and 552 girls with myopia treated with atropine. The average age of the whole group was 10.6 ± 2.5 years old. The refractive error of spherical equivalent (SE) in myopia degree was base SE at 2.63D and end SE at 3.12D. Data were collected from clinical records, including demographic information, IOP measurements, and atropine treatment details. The patients were divided into two subgroups based on a baseline IOP of 14 mmHg. ML models, including Lasso, CART, XGB, and RF, were developed to predict the end IOP value. Then, the best-performing model was further interpreted using SHAP values. The SHAP module created a personalized and dynamic graphic to illustrate how various factors (e.g., age, sex, cumulative duration, and dosage of atropine treatment) affect the end IOP. Results: RF showed the best performance, with superior error metrics in both subgroups. The interpretation of RF with SHAP revealed that age and the recruitment duration of atropine consistently influenced IOP across subgroups, while other variables had varying effects. SHAP values also offer insights, helping clinicians understand how different factors contribute to predicted IOP value in individual children. Conclusions: SHAP provides an alternative approach to understand the factors affecting IOP in children with myopia treated with atropine. Its enhanced interpretability helps clinicians make informed decisions, improving the safety and efficacy of myopia management. This study demonstrates the potential of combining SHAP with ML models for personalized care in ophthalmology.

Background/Objectives: Myopia is a growing global health concern, especially among school-aged children in East Asia. Topical atropine is a key treatment for pediatric myopia control, but individual responses vary, with some children showing rapid progression despite higher doses. This retrospective observational study aims to develop an interpretable machine learning model to predict individualized treatment responses and support personalized clinical decisions, based on data collected over a 3-year period without a control group. Methods: A total of 1545 pediatric eyes treated with topical atropine for myopia control at a single tertiary medical center are analyzed. Classification and regression tree (CART) is constructed to predict changes in spherical equivalent (SE) and identify influencing risk factors. These factors are mainly received treatments for myopia including atropine dosage records, treatment duration, and ophthalmic examinations. Furthermore, decision rules that closely resemble the clinical diagnosis process are provided to assist clinicians with more interpretable insights into personalized treatment decisions. The performance of CART is evaluated by comparing with the benchmark model of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (Lasso) to confirm the practicality of CART usage. Results: Both the CART and Lasso models demonstrated comparable predictive performance. The CART model identified baseline SE as the primary determinant of myopia progression. Children with a baseline SE more negative than −3.125 D exhibited greater myopic progression, particularly those with prolonged treatment duration and higher cumulative atropine dosage. Conclusions: Baseline SE has been identified as the key factor affecting SE difference. The generated decision rules from CART demonstrate the use of explainable machine learning in precision myopia management.