Purpose: The treatment of childhood myopia often involves the use of topical atropine, which has been demonstrated to be effective in decelerating the progression of myopia. It is crucial to monitor intraocular pressure (IOP) to ensure the safety of topical atropine. This study aims to identify the optimal machine learning IOP-monitoring module and establish a precise baseline IOP as a clinical safety reference for atropine medication. Methods: Data from 1545 eyes of 1171 children receiving atropine for myopia were retrospectively analyzed. Nineteen variables including patient demographics, medical history, refractive error, and IOP measurements were considered. The data were analyzed using a multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) model to analyze the impact of different factors on the End IOP. Results: The MARS model identified age, baseline IOP, End Spherical, duration of previous atropine treatment, and duration of current atropine treatment as the five most significant factors influencing the End IOP. The outcomes revealed that the baseline IOP had the most significant effect on final IOP, exhibiting a notable knot at 14 mmHg. When the baseline IOP was equal to or exceeded 14 mmHg, there was a positive correlation between atropine use and End IOP, suggesting that atropine may increase the End IOP in children with a baseline IOP greater than 14 mmHg. Conclusions: MARS model demonstrates a better ability to capture nonlinearity than classic multiple linear regression for predicting End IOP. It is crucial to acknowledge that administrating atropine may elevate intraocular pressure when the baseline IOP exceeds 14 mmHg. These findings offer valuable insights into factors affecting IOP in children undergoing atropine treatment for myopia, enabling clinicians to make informed decisions regarding treatment options.

Background/Objectives: Myopia is a growing global health concern, especially among school-aged children in East Asia. Topical atropine is a key treatment for pediatric myopia control, but individual responses vary, with some children showing rapid progression despite higher doses. This retrospective observational study aims to develop an interpretable machine learning model to predict individualized treatment responses and support personalized clinical decisions, based on data collected over a 3-year period without a control group. Methods: A total of 1545 pediatric eyes treated with topical atropine for myopia control at a single tertiary medical center are analyzed. Classification and regression tree (CART) is constructed to predict changes in spherical equivalent (SE) and identify influencing risk factors. These factors are mainly received treatments for myopia including atropine dosage records, treatment duration, and ophthalmic examinations. Furthermore, decision rules that closely resemble the clinical diagnosis process are provided to assist clinicians with more interpretable insights into personalized treatment decisions. The performance of CART is evaluated by comparing with the benchmark model of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (Lasso) to confirm the practicality of CART usage. Results: Both the CART and Lasso models demonstrated comparable predictive performance. The CART model identified baseline SE as the primary determinant of myopia progression. Children with a baseline SE more negative than −3.125 D exhibited greater myopic progression, particularly those with prolonged treatment duration and higher cumulative atropine dosage. Conclusions: Baseline SE has been identified as the key factor affecting SE difference. The generated decision rules from CART demonstrate the use of explainable machine learning in precision myopia management.