Departures from historical wildfire regimes due to climate change have significant implications for the structure and composition of forests, as well as for fire management and operations in the Alberta region of Canada. This study analyzed the relationship between climate and wildfire and used a random forest algorithm to predict future wildfire frequencies in Alberta, Canada. Key factors driving wildfires were identified as vapor pressure deficit (VPD), sea surface temperature (SST), maximum temperature (Tmax), and the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI). Projections indicate an increase in wildfire frequencies from 918 per year during 1970–1999 to 1151 per year during 2040–2069 under a moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario (RCP 4.5) and to 1258 per year under a high GHG emission scenario (RCP 8.5). By 2070–2099, wildfire frequencies are projected to increase to 1199 per year under RCP 4.5 and to 1555 per year under RCP 8.5. The peak number of wildfires is expected to shift from May to July. These findings suggest that projected GHG emissions will substantially increase wildfire danger in Alberta by 2099, posing increasing challenges for fire suppression efforts.

Understanding how fires impact the carbon cycle is crucial for developing effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although there is a substantial global body of research on fire carbon cycle (FCC), there are relatively few studies offering graphical and quantitative analyses. To assess the trends in FCC research from 1989 to 2023, we performed a bibliometric analysis using the Science Citation Index—Expanded database. A total of 2408 publications were analyzed in this study. The results revealed that from 1989 to 2023, the quantity of publications in the field of FCC studies increased significantly. However, the average number of citations per paper per year first increased rapidly, followed by a slow increase, and then a decline. The top 10 institutions contributing to FCC research were predominantly based in the United States and the United Kingdom, with these countries also leading in the number of publications and citations. Beyond the keywords “fire” and “carbon” used in collecting literature, “climate-change” and “dynamic” were the top two most prominent research focuses. The topic of research has shifted from 1989 to 2023. Climate, vegetation, and emissions were the basic themes, which were important but not well developed, and will be the focus of future research. Along with climate change, research will focus more and more on fire emissions and modeling.

The increasing frequency of extreme wildfire behavior globally, particularly under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, poses unprecedented challenges to traditional fire management paradigms. This study presents a comprehensive, multi-dimensional case study of the catastrophic eruptive fire event that occurred in Xintian County, Hunan Province, China, on 17 October 2022. By integrating data on long-term ecological drought, critical synoptic-scale weather conditions, and real-time emission profiles of combustion products, we delineate the mechanistic chain leading to eruptive fire development in a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest region, historically considered a low-to-moderate fire risk zone. Our results demonstrate that the eruptive fire was a consequence of a critical convergence of factors: a protracted pre-conditioning drought that significantly reduced live and dead fuel moisture, a specific meteorological window characterized by extremely low relative humidity (<60%) and initially high wind speeds (peak at 16.5–17.9 m/s), and the abundant production and accumulation of flammable pyrolysis gases (e.g., CO, CH₄) from the dominant Masson pine forests. The emission data pinpointed October 19th as the key tipping point, marking the transition to high-intensity combustion. This study underscores the vulnerability of subtropical forest ecosystems to eruptive fires during compound extreme events. Our findings provide a critical scientific basis for updating fire danger rating systems and early warning strategies in similar ecological regions under a changing climate.