Generation of Swine Flu: As the newly emerged influenza virus starts its journey to infect the world's human population, the genetic secrets of the 2009 outbreak of swine influenza A(H1N1) are being revealed. In extensive phylogenetic analyses, Garten et al. (p. 197 , published online 22 May) confirm that of the eight elements of the virus, the basic components encoded by the hemagglutinin, nucleoprotein, and nonstructural genes originated in birds and transferred to pigs in 1918. Subsequently, these formed a triple reassortant with the RNA polymerase PB1 that transferred from birds in 1968 to humans and then to pigs in 1998, coupled with RNA polymerases PA and PB2 that transferred from birds to pigs in 1998. The neuraminidase and matrix protein genes that complete the virus came from birds and entered pigs in 1979. The analysis offers insights into drug susceptibility and virulence, as well as raising the possibility of hitherto unknown factors determining host specificity. A significant question is, what is the potential for the H1 component of the current seasonal flu vaccine to act as a booster? Apart from the need for ongoing sequencing to monitor for the emergence of new reassortants, future pig populations need to be closely monitored for emerging influenza viruses.

The antigenic evolution of influenza A (H3N2) virus was quantified and visualized from its introduction into humans in 1968 to 2003. Although there was remarkable correspondence between antigenic and genetic evolution, significant differences were observed: Antigenic evolution was more punctuated than genetic evolution, and genetic change sometimes had a disproportionately large antigenic effect. The method readily allows monitoring of antigenic differences among vaccine and circulating strains and thus estimation of the effects of vaccination. Further, this approach offers a route to predicting the relative success of emerging strains, which could be achieved by quantifying the combined effects of population level immune escape and viral fitness on strain evolution.

Avian flu can acquire the capacity for airborne transmission between mammals without recombination in an intermediate host.

In wild aquatic birds and poultry around the world, influenza A viruses carrying 15 antigenic subtypes of hemagglutinin (HA) and 9 antigenic subtypes of neuraminidase (NA) have been described. Here we describe a previously unidentified antigenic subtype of HA (H16), detected in viruses circulating in black-headed gulls in Sweden. In agreement with established criteria for the definition of antigenic subtypes, hemagglutination inhibition assays and immunodiffusion assays failed to detect specific reactivity between H16 and the previously described subtypes H1 to H15. Genetically, H16 HA was found to be distantly related to H13 HA, a subtype also detected exclusively in shorebirds, and the amino acid composition of the putative receptor-binding site of H13 and H16 HAs was found to be distinct from that in HA subtypes circulating in ducks and geese. The H16 viruses contained NA genes that were similar to those of other Eurasian shorebirds but genetically distinct from N3 genes detected in other birds and geographical locations. The European gull viruses were further distinguishable from other influenza A viruses based on their PB2, NP, and NS genes. Gaining information on the full spectrum of avian influenza A viruses and creating reagents for their detection and identification will remain an important task for influenza surveillance, outbreak control, and animal and public health. We propose that sequence analyses of HA and NA genes of influenza A viruses be used for the rapid identification of existing and novel HA and NA subtypes.

Flu Drift Limited: Five antigenic sites in the virus surface hemagglutinin protein, which together comprise 131 amino acid positions, are thought to determine the full scope of antigenic drift of influenza A virus. Koel et al. (p. 976 ) show that major antigenic change can be caused by single amino acid substitutions. These single substitutions substantially skew the way the immune system “sees” the virus. All substitutions of importance are located next to the receptor-binding site in the hemagglutinin. Because there are few positions of importance for antigenic drift, there are strict biophysical limitations to the substitutions at these positions, which restricts the number of new antigenic drift variants at any point in time. Thus, the evolution of influenza virus may be more predictable than previously thought.

Antigenic and genetic analysis of the hemagglutinin of ∼13,000 human influenza A (H3N2) viruses from six continents during 2002–2007 revealed that there was continuous circulation in east and Southeast Asia (E-SE Asia) via a region-wide network of temporally overlapping epidemics and that epidemics in the temperate regions were seeded from this network each year. Seed strains generally first reached Oceania, North America, and Europe, and later South America. This evidence suggests that once A (H3N2) viruses leave E-SE Asia, they are unlikely to contribute to long-term viral evolution. If the trends observed during this period are an accurate representation of overall patterns of spread, then the antigenic characteristics of A (H3N2) viruses outside E-SE Asia may be forecast each year based on surveillance within E-SE Asia, with consequent improvements to vaccine strain selection.