Gulnara Iskaliyeva

Gulnara Iskaliyeva


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

3Years (2024-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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26 December 2024 in Remote Sensing
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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MKMuratbek Kudaibergenov
Muratbek Kudaibergenov
SNSerik Nurakynov
Serik Nurakynov
BIBerik Iskakov
Berik Iskakov
GIGulnara Iskaliyeva
Gulnara Iskaliyeva
YMYelaman Maksum
Yelaman Maksum
NSNurmakhambet Sydyk
Nurmakhambet Sydyk
In the current work, authors reviewed the latest research results in landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) using artificial intelligence (AI) methods. Based on an overall review of collected publications, the review was classified into four sections based on their complexity: single-model approaches, enhanced models with optimization, ensemble models, and hybrid models. Each category offers distinct advantages and is suited to specific geographic and data conditions, enabling the selection of an optimal model type based on the complexity and requirements of the mapping task. Among models, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), convolutional neural network (CNN), and multilayer perception (MLP) are used as the baseline to compare any new model introduced to develop LSM. Moreover, compared to previous review works, the number of LSM conditioning factors used in AI models are significantly increased, up to 122 factors. Their relation to the AI models is illustrated using Sankey diagram, while a radar chart is used to further visualize the dataset size per reviewed work for comparative purposes. In the main part of the current review work, the main findings are summarized into a table form, where the reader can find the overall relations between landslide conditioning factors, landslide dataset size, applied AI models, and their accuracy on predicting LSM for selected geographical locations. In terms of the regions, Asia is leading in the application of AI models to generate LSM, and in such regions with dense populations falling into higher landslide risk categories, there are more ongoing research activities, using modern AI methods. This trend underscores the increased use of AI in disaster management, with implications for improving practical applications, such as early warning systems and informing policy decisions aimed at risk reduction in vulnerable areas.

25 November 2025 in Atmosphere
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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GIGulnara Iskaliyeva
Gulnara Iskaliyeva
Aibek Aitollaevich MerekeyevAibek Aitollaevich Merekeyev
Aibek Aitollaevich Merekeyev
NSNurmakhambet Sydyk
Nurmakhambet Sydyk
AAAlima Azamatkyzy Amangeldi
Alima Azamatkyzy Amangeldi
BABauyrzhan Abishev
Bauyrzhan Abishev
ZBZhaksybek Baygurin
Zhaksybek Baygurin
High-mountain regions such as the Ile-Alatau range of the Northern Tien Shan are highly sensitive to climatic fluctuations, where even minor variations in temperature and precipitation significantly influence glacier mass balance and hydrology. Despite this sensitivity, few long-term studies have examined the links between hydro-climatic trends, glacier retreat, and moraine lake development. This study investigates multi-decadal glacier and lake dynamics (1955–2024) in relation to observed climate variability, using an integrated hydro-climatic and remote-sensing approach. Temperature and precipitation records from four high-altitude meteorological stations were assessed using linear regression and the Mann–Kendall test, while glacier and lake extents were derived from aerial photographs and Landsat, Sentinel-2, and PlanetScope imagery across ten river basins. Results show statistically significant warming at all stations, with mean annual temperatures increasing by 0.14–0.28 °C per decade and summer temperatures by 0.15–0.30 °C, while precipitation remained stable or slightly decreased. Glacierized area decreased from approximately 269.6 km2 in 1955 to 141.7 km2 in 2021, representing a 47.4% reduction (≈−0.72% yr−1) over six decades and underscoring the rapid regional cryospheric response to sustained climatic warming. Simultaneously, moraine-dammed lakes increased by 16–18% between 2017 and 2024. These trends highlight the dominant climatic control on glacier loss and lake evolution, emphasizing growing glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and the need for adaptive water-resource management in Central Asia.

31 January 2026 in Water
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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Aibek Aitollaevich MerekeyevAibek Aitollaevich Merekeyev
Aibek Aitollaevich Merekeyev
SNSerik Nurakynov
Serik Nurakynov
TBTobias Bolch
Tobias Bolch
GIGulnara Iskaliyeva
Gulnara Iskaliyeva
DTDinara Talgarbayeva
Dinara Talgarbayeva
NSNurmakhambet Sydyk
Nurmakhambet Sydyk
Rock glaciers are key indicators of mountain permafrost and act as climatically resilient water reservoirs in arid mountains. This study presents the first inventory and kinematic classification of rock glaciers in Western Tien Shan (Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan), combining geomorphological mapping with InSAR time-series analysis. Using high-resolution optical imagery (Google Earth Pro (version 7.3.6.10441), Bing Maps, SAS Planet (version 200606.10075), digital elevation models, and Small Baseline Subset InSAR processing, 741 rock glaciers covering more than 70.5 km2 were identified. Activity classification revealed 232 transitional and 509 active forms, with mean seasonal displacement rates of ~15 cm yr−1 calculated based on August and September observations. Spatial analysis showed a strong rock glacier concentration on north-facing slopes (>66% of total area) with reduced potential incoming solar radiation. Rock glaciers mainly occur between 2800 and 3800 m a.s.l., with a mean elevation of 3340 m a.s.l. However, their kinematic activity varies across mid-altitudinal ranges, underscoring the influence of slope, aspect, shading, and local topography. Integration with the Global Permafrost Zonation Index (PZI) indicated a lower permafrost boundary at ~1922 m a.s.l., with the largest and most active glaciers occurring at intermediate PZI values (0.5–0.7). This first rock glacier inventory for the Western Tien Shan establishes a benchmark dataset that supports the validation and refinement of global models at a regional scale, guides priorities for permafrost monitoring, and provides a replicable framework for inventory development in other data-scarce mountain regions.

3 January 2026 in Atmosphere
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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АААйгуль Акжаркынова
Айгуль Акжаркынова
BIBerik Iskakov
Berik Iskakov
GIGulnara Iskaliyeva
Gulnara Iskaliyeva
NSNurmakhambet Sydyk
Nurmakhambet Sydyk
АААйгуль Акжаркынова
Айгуль Акжаркынова
ACAleksandr Chigrinets
Aleksandr Chigrinets
Glaciers in the Northern Tien Shan are a major source of Ile River runoff, supplying water to Kazakhstan’s largest city, Almaty. Under ongoing climate warming, their degradation alters the magnitude and seasonality of river discharge, increasing water-resource vulnerability. This study quantifies long-term changes in glacier area, firn-line elevation, and glacier runoff in the northern Tien Shan from 1955 to 2021. The analysis uses multi-decadal meteorological observations, hydrological records, multi-temporal Landsat-7/8 and Sentinel-2 imagery, and DEMs combined with empirical and semi-empirical runoff estimation methods. The glacier area has declined by more than 45–60% since 1955, accompanied by a rise in firn-line altitude from ~3400 to 3700 m. At the Mynzhylky station, mean summer air temperature increased by 0.88 °C, reflecting persistent warming in glacierized elevations. The contribution of glacier meltwater to annual discharge decreased from ~32% in 1955–1990 to ~25% in 1991–2021, while total and vegetation-period runoff increased due to modified seasonal hydrological conditions. These results demonstrate the impact of climate warming on glacier-fed runoff in the Northern Tien Shan and highlight the need to integrate glacier degradation into water-resource management and long-term water-security assessments.

26 August 2025 in Water
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
NSNurmakhambet Sydyk
Nurmakhambet Sydyk
GIGulnara Iskaliyeva
Gulnara Iskaliyeva
MSMadina Sagat
Madina Sagat
Aibek Aitollaevich MerekeyevAibek Aitollaevich Merekeyev
Aibek Aitollaevich Merekeyev
LBLarissa Balakay
Larissa Balakay
BABauyrzhan Abishev
Bauyrzhan Abishev
Glacial-lake outburst floods (GLOFs) threaten more than three million residents of south-east Kazakhstan, yet quantitative data on lake growth and storage are scarce. We inventoried 154 lakes on the northern flank of the Ile-Alatau and selected four moraine-dammed basins with the greatest historical flood activity for detailed study. Annual lake outlines (2016–2023) were extracted from 3 m PlanetScope imagery with a Normalised Difference Water Index workflow, while late-ablation echo-sounder surveys (2023–2024) yielded sub-metre bathymetric grids. A regionally calibrated area–volume power law translated each shoreline to water storage, and field volumes served as an independent accuracy check. The lakes display divergent trajectories. Rapid thermokarst development led to a 37% increase in the surface area of Lake 13bis, expanding from 0.039 km2 to 0.054 km2 over a 5-year period. In contrast, engineering-induced drawdown resulted in a 44% reduction in the area of Lake 6, from 0.019 km2 to 0.011 km2. Lakes 5 and 2, which are supplied by actively retreating glaciers, exhibited surface area increases of 4.8% and 15%, expanding from 0.077 km2 to 0.088 km2 and from 0.061 km2 to 0.070 km2, respectively. The empirical model reproduces field volumes to within ±25% for four lakes, confirming its utility for rapid hazard screening, but overestimates storage in low-relief basins and underestimates artificially drained lakes. This is the first study in Ile-Alatau to fuse daily 3 m multispectral imagery with ground-truth bathymetry, delivering an 8-year, volume-resolved record of lake evolution. The results identify Lake 5 and Lake 2 as priority targets for early-warning systems and demonstrate that sustained intervention can effectively suppress GLOF risk. Incorporating these storage trajectories into regional disaster plans will sharpen evacuation mapping, optimise resource allocation, and inform transboundary water-hazard policy under accelerating climate change.

15 July 2026 in Water
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
SNSerik Nurakynov
Serik Nurakynov
GIGulnara Iskaliyeva
Gulnara Iskaliyeva
Aibek Aitollaevich MerekeyevAibek Aitollaevich Merekeyev
Aibek Aitollaevich Merekeyev
Tatyana DedovaTatyana Dedova
Tatyana Dedova
JDJagriti Dabas
Jagriti Dabas
AKAigerim Kalybayeva
Aigerim Kalybayeva
Compound spring floods in cold-continental and semi-arid interiors arise from interacting snowmelt, rain-on-snow events, intense precipitation, and frozen or saturated soils, yet these mechanisms remain poorly synthesized for Central Asia. This review develops a process-oriented framework linking preconditioning, triggers, propagation/amplification, impacts, and recovery outcomes. The synthesis shows that the most destructive spring floods occur when substantial antecedent snow storage and restricted infiltration coincide with rapid warming and rainfall, producing efficient runoff generation and widespread impacts. Evidence from Kazakhstan and comparable continental regions indicates that mechanistic understanding is relatively robust, but standardized event-level reporting of snow-water equivalent, soil wetness, precipitation phase, routing constraints, and recovery indicators remains uneven. To support post-disaster comparison, we introduce and demonstrate a Recovery Effectiveness Index (REI) combining housing resettlement, compensation, infrastructure restoration, and equity of assistance. A proof-of-concept application to the 2024 Kazakhstan floods produced a 21 June 2024 snapshot REI of 0.607–0.757 and an end-year REI of 0.850–1.000, depending on the treatment of the equity component. The framework supports compound-driver monitoring, early warning, recovery benchmarking, and more harmonized flood-risk assessment in data-sparse continental regions.