As a Chinese endemic species with dual medicinal–industrial importance, Eucommia ulmoides faces habitat challenges under climate change. Using 21 bioclimatic variables and 704 occurrence records, we modeled current and future (2021–2100) distributions via MaxEnt 3.4.4 and ArcGIS 10.8. The results indicate the following: (1) current optimal habitats cluster in the mid-elevation valleys of Daba–Wuling Mountains (Guizhou–Chongqing core); (2) SSP5-8.5 projections suggest a 19.2% reduction in high-suitability areas by 2081–2100 versus SSP1-2.6; and (3) distribution centroids migrate southward under both scenarios. Our multi-temporal analysis provides actionable intelligence for ex situ conservation and agroforestry planning.

Global climate change has a main impact on the distribution of plants. Aralia chinensis L. is economically valuable, making it necessary to predict the impact of climate change on its distribution. It is important for researching the effects of climate change on A. chinensis distribution to achieve sustainable utilization. Based on 340 occurrence records of A. chinensis covering all known provinces and 58 environmental factor data, we used MaxEnt to simulate the potential distribution of A. chinensis under current and different future climate scenarios, analyzing the key environmental variables affecting its distribution. The results were as follows: (1) Suitable A. chinensis habitats under current and different future climate scenarios were mainly distributed in the southern region of China, east of the Hu Huanyong line. (2) Annual precipitation, minimum temperature during the coldest month, precipitation during the driest month, and slope were the key environmental variables affecting its potential distribution, and annual precipitation was more important. (3) Suitable habitat areas were projected to increase under different future climate scenarios and expand westward and northward while shrinking in the central regions, such as Hubei and Hunan. The results provide a theoretical reference for the conservation and cultivation of A. chinensis.

Gerbera piloselloides (L.)Cass. is an important ethnomedicinal plant. Wild populations are steadily declining, however, posing a risk of failure to meet future market demand. Investigating suitable habitats for this plant and key influencing factors is crucial for its artificial cultivation. In this study, we implemented an optimized MaxEnt to project suitable habitats for the target species in five different periods and explored the impact of different environmental variables on its distribution. Our study findings provide confirmation of the following: (1) The current and future potential distributions of Gerbera piloselloides are primarily located in the areas south of the Qinling–Huaihe boundary in China, with future expansions expected to shift northward and westward. (2) Notably, there was a contraction in the junction regions of the provinces of Jiangxi, Anhui, Hunan, and Hubei. (3) The number of highly suitable habitats in Fujian, Guangdong, Yunnan, and Guangxi is expanding; in comparison, the number in Guizhou, Sichuan, and Hainan is declining. (4) The primary environmental determinants shaping its range, together with the threshold values for highly suitable habitats, are the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6, 0.88–22.58 °C) and the temperature seasonality (bio4, 461.54–763.9). The findings presented in this work provide support for the artificial cultivation and conservation of this plant.