As a Chinese endemic species with dual medicinal–industrial importance, Eucommia ulmoides faces habitat challenges under climate change. Using 21 bioclimatic variables and 704 occurrence records, we modeled current and future (2021–2100) distributions via MaxEnt 3.4.4 and ArcGIS 10.8. The results indicate the following: (1) current optimal habitats cluster in the mid-elevation valleys of Daba–Wuling Mountains (Guizhou–Chongqing core); (2) SSP5-8.5 projections suggest a 19.2% reduction in high-suitability areas by 2081–2100 versus SSP1-2.6; and (3) distribution centroids migrate southward under both scenarios. Our multi-temporal analysis provides actionable intelligence for ex situ conservation and agroforestry planning.