The Rocky Desertification area has high sensitivity and poor anti-interference ability in the ecosystem. It is challenging to achieve sustainable development in a rocky desertification area. Given this issue, the System Dynamics model, the Future Land Use Simulation (FlUS) model, the Integrated Valuation and Trade-offs of ESs (InVEST) model, and the Structural Equation Model (SEM) were integrated in this study to analyze future ecosystem service change in Wenshan Prefecture under SSP1-1.9, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The following results are obtained. (1) The area of cultivated land, construction land, forest land, and grassland increased in SSP1-1.9; the area of forest land and grassland decreased in SSP2-4.5 scenario and SSP5-8.5 scenario. (2) The water supply (WS), carbon sequestration (CS), and soil conservation power (SDR) under the three different scenarios were improved compared with 2020. Among them, habitat quality (HQ) demonstrated a slight increase trend under the SSP1-1.9 scenario but decreased under the other two scenarios. (3) WS, CS, and HQ exhibited a tradeoff relationship in the three scenarios compared with 2020. (4) In the SSP1-1.9 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the synergistic relationships among CS, HQ, SDR, and WS were particularly detected in the northern, southern, and central parts of the study area. Additionally, climate change and vegetation-dominated ecological environment are the main driving mechanisms affecting ES changes. This paper summarizes the spatial differences in the change trend and synergistic tradeoff and lays a crucial scientific foundation for the ecological protection of karst landform areas.

Land-use change directly and indirectly affects regional carbon storage by reshaping the composition and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and understanding this process is important for guiding land-use strategies toward carbon neutrality. This study used wilderness mapping to assess wilderness quality in Pu’er City and integrated the FLUS–InVEST model to analyze spatiotemporal changes in land use and carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 and to simulate land-use and carbon-storage outcomes for 2030. Based on the wilderness-mapping results, the study area was divided into four wilderness-quality classes, and four scenarios were established: No Protection, Limited Protection, Moderate Protection, and Strict Protection. From 2000 to 2020, cropland and forestland decreased, whereas grassland, water bodies, and built-up land increased. Carbon storage first increased slightly and then declined, with an overall decrease of approximately 1.87 × 10⁶ Mg C. Relative to the harmonized five-class 2020 FLUS baseline, the 2030 simulations showed a decline of approximately 1.46 × 10⁶ Mg C under the No Protection scenario, whereas the Moderate Protection scenario produced an increase of approximately 0.21 × 10⁶ Mg C. Under the baseline carbon-density parameters, the Moderate Protection scenario yielded the highest estimated total carbon storage among the four scenarios and resulted in a larger simulated built-up land area than the Strict Protection scenario. However, the relatively small difference in estimated total carbon storage between the Moderate and Strict Protection scenarios should be interpreted with consideration of carbon-density uncertainty.