Desertification presents a significant ecological challenge in arid and semi-arid regions, posing a severe threat to regional ecological security and sustainable development. This study introduces an integrated framework for desertification vulnerability assessment, combining the MEDALUS model with the XGBoost algorithm, to evaluate desertification dynamics across the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2020 and project future trends under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for 2030. The findings are as follows: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, desertification vulnerability was most pronounced in the southern and western regions of the plateau, with lower vulnerability observed in the northern and eastern areas. High-vulnerability zones expanded over time, highlighting the need for targeted and prioritized management efforts. (2) Climate factors—particularly temperature, wind speed, and precipitation—emerged as the dominant drivers of desertification, followed by soil characteristics and vegetation (NDVI). The influence of human activities on desertification became increasingly significant, stressing the need for improved land management and sustainable practices. (3) Future risks show that desertification vulnerability in the Mongolian Plateau will intensify under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), with significant expansion of high vulnerability areas. Lower-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5) may reduce some impacts, but high vulnerability will persist, highlighting the need for urgent climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Dryland phenology is tightly constrained by water availability, yet the temporal depth of drought influence remains poorly resolved at regional scales. We analyzed the start and end of season across the Mongolian Plateau using 500 m MODIS kNDVI for 2001–2020 and a phenology-anchored framework that linked multi-timescale SPEI directly to the month of each phenological event. By varying accumulation windows and testing month-wise lags up to twelve months, we mapped pixel-level optimal timescales and sensitivities. Phenology exhibits a clear north–south gradient with weak long-term shifts relative to large interannual variability. Drought acts through two pathways. Multi-month winter–spring moisture deficits delay spring green-up, with the strongest SOS sensitivity to antecedent drought about six to nine months prior. Summer–autumn dryness advances dormancy, and EOS is governed mainly by near-term moisture over the previous one to two months. Responses differ among ecoregions, with deserts and desert steppes the most sensitive and forests and alpine meadows less responsive. These asymmetric timescales imply that prolonged deficits can postpone spring emergence into the following year, whereas short deficits truncate the current season, offsetting warming-driven extensions of growing-season length. Incorporating phenology-anchored, multi-timescale drought indicators can improve model forecasts of dryland carbon–water dynamics and inform monitoring and adaptation in the most water-limited ecoregions.