Forests are vital for terrestrial ecosystems, providing crucial functions like carbon sequestration and water conservation. In the Yellow River Basin, where 70% of forest coverage is concentrated in the middle reaches encompassing Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Shanxi provinces, there exists significant potential for coal production, with nine planned coal bases. This study centered on Jincheng City, Shanxi Province, a representative coal mining area in the Yellow River Basin, and combined the MSPA analysis method and MCR model to generate the five-period forest ecological network of Jincheng City from 1985 to 2022 under the background of coal mining and calculate the degree centrality, closeness centrality, betweenness centrality, and eigenvector centrality; the correlation between the four centralities and carbon sequestration ability is further explored. Simultaneously, employing the RAND-ESU algorithm for motif identification within forest ecological networks, this study integrates the ecological policies of the research area with the specific conditions of the coal mining region to optimize the forest ecological network in Jincheng City. Findings reveal the following. (1) Forest ecological spatial networks: Forest ecological networks exhibit robust overall ecological connectivity in the study area, with potential ecological corridors spanning the region. However, certain areas with high ecological resistance hinder connectivity between key forest ecological nodes under the background of coal mining. (2) Correlation between topological indices and carbon sequestration ecological services: From 1985 to 2022, the carbon sequestration capacity of Jincheng City’s forest source areas increased year by year, and significant positive correlations were observed between degree centrality, betweenness centrality, eigenvector centrality with carbon sequestration ecological services, indicating a strengthening trend over time. (3) Motif Recognition and Ecological Network Optimization: During the study, four types of motifs were identified in the forest ecological network of Jincheng City based on the number of nodes and their connections using the RAND-ESU network motif algorithm. These motifs are 3a, 4a, 4b, and 4d (where the number represents the number of nodes and the letter represents the connection type). Among these, motifs 3a and 4b play a crucial role. Based on these motifs and practical considerations, network optimization was performed on the existing ecological source areas to enhance the robustness of the forest ecological network.

Lightning-induced forest fires frequently inflict substantial damage on forest ecosystems, with the Daxing’anling region in northern China recognized as a high-incidence region for such phenomena. To elucidate the occurrence patterns of forest fires caused by lightning and to prevent such fires, this study employs a multifaceted approach, including statistical analysis, kernel density estimation, and spatial autocorrelation analysis, to conduct a comprehensive examination of the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of lightning-induced forest fires in the Greater Khingan Mountains region from 2016–2020. Additionally, the geographical detector method is utilized to assess the explanatory power of three main factors: climate, topography, and fuel characteristics associated with these fires, encompassing both univariate and interaction detections. Furthermore, a mixed-methods approach is adopted, integrating the Zhengfei Wang model with a three-dimensional cellular automaton to simulate the spread of lightning-induced forest fire events, which is further validated through rigorous quantitative verification. The principal findings are as follows: (1) Spatiotemporal Distribution of Lightning-Induced Forest Fires: Interannual variability reveals pronounced fluctuations in the incidence of lightning-induced forest fires. The monthly concentration of incidents is most significant in May, July, and August, demonstrating an upward trajectory. In terms of temporal distribution, fire occurrences are predominantly concentrated between 1:00 PM and 5:00 PM, conforming to a normal distribution pattern. Spatially, higher incidences of fires are observed in the western and northwestern regions, while the eastern and southeastern areas exhibit reduced rates. At the township level, significant spatial autocorrelation indicates that Xing’an Town represents a prominent hotspot (p = 0.001), whereas Oupu Town is identified as a significant cold spot (p = 0.05). (2) Determinants of the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Lightning-Induced Forest Fires: The spatiotemporal distribution of lightning-induced forest fires is influenced by a multitude of factors. Univariate analysis reveals that the explanatory power of these factors varies significantly, with climatic factors exerting the most substantial influence, followed by topographic and fuel characteristics. Interaction factor analysis indicates that the interactive effects of climatic variables are notably more pronounced than those of fuel and topographical factors. (3) Three-Dimensional Cellular Automaton Fire Simulation Based on the Zhengfei Wang Model: This investigation integrates the fire spread principles from the Zhengfei Wang model into a three-dimensional cellular automaton framework to simulate the dynamic behavior of lightning-induced forest fires. Through quantitative validation against empirical fire events, the model demonstrates an accuracy rate of 83.54% in forecasting the affected fire zones.

Lightning is the primary natural cause of wildfires in mid- to high-latitude forests, and it is increasing in frequency under climate change. Traditional fire danger forecasts, reliant on standard meteorological data, often fail to capture extreme events and future risk. To address this issue, we integrate extreme climate indices with meteorological, vegetation, soil, and topographic data, and apply four machine learning methods to build probabilistic models for lightning fire occurrence. The results show that incorporating extreme climate indices significantly improves model performance. Among the models, XGBoost achieved the highest accuracy (87.4%) and AUC (0.903), clearly outperforming traditional fire weather indices (accuracy 60%–71%). Model interpretation with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) further revealed the driving mechanisms and interaction effects of extreme factors. Extreme temperature and precipitation indices contributed nearly 60% to fire occurrence, with growing season length (GSL), minimum of daily maximum temperature (TXn), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and warm spell duration index (WSDI) identified as key drivers. In contrast, heavy precipitation indices exerted a suppressing effect. Compound hot and dry conditions amplified fuel aridity and markedly increased ignition probability. This interpretable framework improves short-term lightning fire prediction and offers quantitative support for risk warning and resource allocation in a warming climate.

Desertification presents a significant ecological challenge in arid and semi-arid regions, posing a severe threat to regional ecological security and sustainable development. This study introduces an integrated framework for desertification vulnerability assessment, combining the MEDALUS model with the XGBoost algorithm, to evaluate desertification dynamics across the Mongolian Plateau from 2000 to 2020 and project future trends under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for 2030. The findings are as follows: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, desertification vulnerability was most pronounced in the southern and western regions of the plateau, with lower vulnerability observed in the northern and eastern areas. High-vulnerability zones expanded over time, highlighting the need for targeted and prioritized management efforts. (2) Climate factors—particularly temperature, wind speed, and precipitation—emerged as the dominant drivers of desertification, followed by soil characteristics and vegetation (NDVI). The influence of human activities on desertification became increasingly significant, stressing the need for improved land management and sustainable practices. (3) Future risks show that desertification vulnerability in the Mongolian Plateau will intensify under high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), with significant expansion of high vulnerability areas. Lower-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5) may reduce some impacts, but high vulnerability will persist, highlighting the need for urgent climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Dryland phenology is tightly constrained by water availability, yet the temporal depth of drought influence remains poorly resolved at regional scales. We analyzed the start and end of season across the Mongolian Plateau using 500 m MODIS kNDVI for 2001–2020 and a phenology-anchored framework that linked multi-timescale SPEI directly to the month of each phenological event. By varying accumulation windows and testing month-wise lags up to twelve months, we mapped pixel-level optimal timescales and sensitivities. Phenology exhibits a clear north–south gradient with weak long-term shifts relative to large interannual variability. Drought acts through two pathways. Multi-month winter–spring moisture deficits delay spring green-up, with the strongest SOS sensitivity to antecedent drought about six to nine months prior. Summer–autumn dryness advances dormancy, and EOS is governed mainly by near-term moisture over the previous one to two months. Responses differ among ecoregions, with deserts and desert steppes the most sensitive and forests and alpine meadows less responsive. These asymmetric timescales imply that prolonged deficits can postpone spring emergence into the following year, whereas short deficits truncate the current season, offsetting warming-driven extensions of growing-season length. Incorporating phenology-anchored, multi-timescale drought indicators can improve model forecasts of dryland carbon–water dynamics and inform monitoring and adaptation in the most water-limited ecoregions.