Este trabalho apresenta uma contribuição aos aspectos da climatologia dinâmica da Amazônia oriental, baseado na análise observacional das séries históricas de 40 anos (1975 a 2014) dos dados de precipitação para 30 estações meteorológicas dos estados do Pará, Maranhão e Tocantins. Os resultados mostraram que os padrões climatológicos de precipitação nos regimes chuvoso (janeiro a maio) e seco (julho a novembro) apresentam variabilidade espacial pronunciada, com características climáticas diferenciadas (intensidade e disposição geográfica dos máximos e mínimos pluviométricos) entre os dois regimes sazonais. Os dados de precipitação do satélite TRMM indicaram que a ZCIT e a ZCAS são os principais sistemas meteorológicos do regime chuvoso, enquanto que os aglomerados convectivos, linhas de instabilidade e influências das bandas frontais posicionadas no nordeste brasileiro são os principais sistemas que explicam a distribuição pluviométrica do regime seco. A análise de tendências usando o teste de Mann-Kendall para o regime chuvoso demonstrou sinais de aumento sistemático de precipitação particularmente no oeste, centro e nordeste do Pará e norte do Tocantins. Para o regime seco, há sinais de tendências positivas significantes no oeste/sudeste do Pará, contudo ressaltam-se os padrões de neutralidade (sem tendências) em grande parte do Maranhão e alguns setores do norte/nordeste do Pará.

Monitoring rainfall in the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA), which comprises most of the largest tropical rainforest and largest river basin on the planet, is extremely important but challenging. The size of the area and land cover alone impose difficulties on the operation of a rain gauge network. Given this, we aimed to evaluate the performance of nine databases that estimate rainfall in the BLA, four from gridded analyses based on pluviometry (Xavier, CPC, GPCC and CRU), four based on remote sensing (CHIRPS, IMERG, CMORPH and PERSIANN-CDR), and one from reanalysis (ERA5Land). We found that all the bases are efficient in characterizing the average annual cycle of accumulated precipitation in the BLA, but with a predominantly negative bias. Parameters such as Pearson’s correlation (r), root-mean-square error (RMSE) and Taylor diagrams (SDE), applied in a spatial analysis for the entire BLA as well as for six pluviometrically homogeneous regions, showed that, based on a skill ranking, the data from Xavier’s grid analysis, CHIRPS, GPCC and ERA5Land best represent precipitation in the BLA at monthly, seasonal and annual levels. The PERSIANN-CDR data showed intermediate performance, while the IMERG, CMORPH, CRU and CPC data showed the lowest correlations and highest errors, characteristics also captured in the Taylor diagrams. It is hoped that this demonstration of hierarchy based on skill will subsidize climate studies in this region of great relevance in terms of biodiversity, water resources and as an important climate regulator.

Usando um conjunto de dados para um período de 26 anos (1982 a 2007), este trabalho apresentou um estudo diagnóstico sobre a estrutura vertical da temperatura do ar, temperatura do ponto de orvalho e umidade relativa sobre a região de Belém-PA, durante o mês de novembro. As análises foram conduzidas para duas composições contrastantes no que se refere ao regime de precipitação: a composição dos anos chuvosos e a composição dos anos secos, as quais foram estabelecidas objetivamente pelo método dos percentis. Os resultados apresentados permitiram concluir que a principal diferença observada nos perfis de temperatura e umidade atmosférica, comparando-se os perfis dos anos chuvosos e secos, ocorre na camada atmosférica entre os médios e altos níveis da troposfera (entre os níveis padrões de 700 hPa e 400 hPa). Nesta camada, a diferença entre as temperaturas do ar e do ponto de orvalho é significativamente maior e o contraste de umidade associado à convecção também apresenta os maiores valores. Em geral, as composições demonstraram que os perfis de temperatura anomalamente mais quente (frio) e os de umidade anomalamente mais úmido (seco) associam-se aos anos com registro de chuva acima (abaixo) do normal na região de Belém.

At subannual timescales, terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays a critical role in the partitioning of precipitation into runoff and evapotranspiration, and Amazonia stands out due to the great amplitude of the annual cycles. In this study, we analyse the monthly variation of the water balance and extreme hydrological events using GRACE data for a watershed situated in the “arc‐of‐deforestation” in the Eastern Brazilian Legal Amazon. The existence of a correlation and lag time response between the monthly sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and North Atlantic and the variables of the water balance were also investigated. The results showed a weak seasonal cycle of evapotranspiration, with higher water intercepted by the vegetation canopy in the rainy season and higher potential evapotranspiration supplied by TWS in the dry season. The lowest value of water storage was reached in December 2015 during the strongest El Niño event observed in the analysed period (2002–2016). This value impacted the streamflow for at least the entire rainy season. The correlation analysis showed that positive anomalies of the Niño 3.4 index from October to March caused a significant decrease in precipitation in the following March to May and in November, a significant increase in the reference evapotranspiration in April and May, and longer lasting effects on the streamflow and TWS. Although the underlying mechanisms contributing to the time delays remain incompletely understood, the results indicate that consideration of the ENSO influence on the water balance and of the TWS influence on streamflow would improve flood and drought forecasts with benefits for water management.

The focus of this work is on small municipalities (population below 50 thousand inhabitants) that cover around 87% of the territory of the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). Based on a comprehensive integrated analysis approach using the three components hazard (climate extremes from CMIP6 future scenarios), exposure (directly affected population), and vulnerability (subdimensions of susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacity by using multidimensional indicators), the latter two using current datasets provided by the official Census IBGE 2022, we document a quantitative assessment of the risk R of natural disasters in the BLA region. We evidenced a worrying and imminent intensification of the curve of R in most Amazonian municipalities over the next two 25-year periods. The overall results of the highest proportions of R (total municipalities affected) pointed out the Amazonas, Roraima, Pará, and Maranhão as the main states, presenting projected categories of R high in the near future (2015 to 2039) and very high in the far future (2040 to 2064). The detailed assessment of the susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacity allowed us to elucidate the principal indicators that aggravate the degree of vulnerability: economy, the precariousness of urban infrastructure, medical services, communication, and urban mobility, whose combined factors, unfortunately, reveal a widespread poverty profile along the small Amazonian municipalities. Our scientific findings can assist decision makers in targeted strategies planning and public policies to minimize and mitigate ongoing and future climate change.