Coastal tidal wetlands produce and accumulate significant amounts of organic carbon (C) that help to mitigate climate change. However, previous data limitations have prevented a robust evaluation of the global rates and mechanisms driving C accumulation. Here, we go beyond recent soil C stock estimates to reveal global tidal wetland C accumulation and predict changes under relative sea level rise, temperature and precipitation. We use data from literature study sites and our new observations spanning wide latitudinal gradients and 20 countries. Globally, tidal wetlands accumulate 53.65 (95%CI: 48.52–59.01) Tg C yr⁻¹, which is ∼30% of the organic C buried on the ocean floor. Modeling based on current climatic drivers and under projected emissions scenarios revealed a net increase in the global C accumulation by 2100. This rapid increase is driven by sea level rise in tidal marshes, and higher temperature and precipitation in mangroves. Countries with large areas of coastal wetlands, like Indonesia and Mexico, are more susceptible to tidal wetland C losses under climate change, while regions such as Australia, Brazil, the USA and China will experience a significant C accumulation increase under all projected scenarios.

Mangroves and saltmarshes are biogeochemical hotspots storing carbon in sediments and in the ocean following lateral carbon export (outwelling). Coastal seawater pH is modified by both uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide and natural biogeochemical processes, e.g., wetland inputs. Here, we investigate how mangroves and saltmarshes influence coastal carbonate chemistry and quantify the contribution of alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) outwelling to blue carbon budgets. Observations from 45 mangroves and 16 saltmarshes worldwide revealed that >70% of intertidal wetlands export more DIC than alkalinity, potentially decreasing the pH of coastal waters. Porewater-derived DIC outwelling (81 ± 47 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ in mangroves and 57 ± 104 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ in saltmarshes) was the major term in blue carbon budgets. However, substantial amounts of fixed carbon remain unaccounted for. Concurrently, alkalinity outwelling was similar or higher than sediment carbon burial and is therefore a significant but often overlooked carbon sequestration mechanism.