A backstripping analysis of 225 wells located within the Sirt Basin, Libya, provides new constraints on the development of the Sirt Basin. Four tectonic phases are identified from Late Jurassic to present. The presentation of contour maps of subsidence and crustal stretching allows spatial and temporal variations in stretching to be visualized. A close match is observed with stretching phases documented for other African basins, consistent with discrete phases in the opening of the Tethys and Atlantic. Rifting and reactivation appear to be primarily controlled by the orientation of the basin and the underlying basement structure with respect to stress directions. The tectonic subsidence curves have also been forward modeled with an automated modeling technique to quantify the variation in timing and the magnitude of rifting. The tectonic subsidence history of the Sirt Basin is characterized by periods of stretching, alternating with periods of relative tectonic quiescence and thermal subsidence. Stretching started at the centers of the troughs and migrated toward the platform crests.

Geothermal energy is a viable alternative to gas for the heating of buildings, industrial areas and greenhouses, and can thus play an important role in making the transition to sustainable energy in the Netherlands. Heat is currently produced from the Dutch subsurface through circulation of water between two wells in deep (1.5–3 km) geothermal formations with temperature of up to ∼100 °C. As the number of these so-called doublets is expected to increase significantly over the next decades, and targeted depths and temperatures increase, it is important to assess potential show-stoppers related to geothermal operations. One of these potential hazards is the possibility of the occurrence of felt seismic events, which could potentially damage infrastructure and housing, and affect public support. Such events have been observed in several geothermal systems in other countries. Here we review the occurrence (or the lack) of felt seismic events in geothermal systems worldwide and identify key factors influencing the occurrence and magnitude of these events. Based on this review, we project the findings for seismicity in geothermal systems to typical geothermal formations and future geothermal developments in the Netherlands. The case study review shows that doublets that circulate fluids through relatively shallow, porous, sedimentary aquifers far from the crystalline basement are unlikely to generate felt seismic events. On the other hand, stimulations or circulations in or near competent, fractured, basement rocks and production and reinjection operations in high-temperature geothermal fields are more prone to induce felt events, occasionally with magnitudes ofM> 5.0. Many of these operations are situated in tectonically active areas, and stress and temperature changes may be large. The presence of large, optimally oriented and critically stressed faults increases the potential for induced seismicity. The insights from the case study review suggest that the potential for the occurrence ofM> 2.0 seismicity for geothermal operations in several of the sandstone target formations in the Netherlands is low, especially if faults can be avoided. The potential for induced seismicity may be moderate for operations in faulted carbonate rocks. Induced seismicity always remains a complex and site-specific process with large unknowns, and can never be excluded entirely. However, assessing the potential for inducing felt seismic events can be improved by considering the relevant (site-specific) geological and operational key factors discussed in this article.

We implement a Coulomb rate‐and‐state approach to explore the nonlinear relation between stressing rate and seismicity rate in the Groningen gas field. Coulomb stress rates are calculated, taking into account the 3‐D structural complexity of the field and including the poroelastic effect of the differential compaction due to fault offsets. The spatiotemporal evolution of the Groningen seismicity must be attributed to a combination of both (i) spatial variability in the induced stressing rate history and (ii) spatial heterogeneities in the rate‐and‐state model parameters. Focusing on two subareas of the Groningen field where the observed event rates are very contrasted even though the modeled seismicity rates are of similar magnitudes, we show that the rate‐and‐state model parameters are spatially heterogeneous. For these two subareas, the very low background seismicity rate of the Groningen gas field can explain the long delay in the seismicity response relative to the onset of reservoir depletion. The characteristic periods of stress perturbations, due to gas production fluctuations, are much shorter than the inferred intrinsic time delay of the earthquake nucleation process. In this regime the modeled seismicity rate is in phase with the stress changes. However, since the start of production and for two subareas of our analysis, the Groningen fault system is unsteady and it is gradually becoming more sensitive to the stressing rate.

The Groningen gas field in the Netherlands experienced an immediate reduction in seismic events in the year following a massive cut in production. This reduction is inconsistent with existing models of seismicity predictions adopting compaction strains as proxy, since reservoir creep would then result in a more gradual reduction of seismic events after a production stop. We argue that the discontinuity in seismic response relates to a physical discontinuity in stress loading rate on faults upon the arrest of pressure change. The stresses originate from a combination of the direct poro-elastic effect through the pressure changes and the delayed effect of ongoing compaction after cessation of reservoir production. Both mechanisms need to be taken into account. To this end, we employed finite element models in a workflow that couples Kelvin-chain reservoir creep with a semi-analytical approach for the solution of slip and seismic moment from the predicted stress change. For ratios of final creep and elastic compaction up to 5, the model predicts that the cumulative seismic moment evolution after a production stop is subject to a very moderate increase, two to ten times less than the values predicted by the alternative approaches using reservoir compaction strain as proxy. This is in agreement with the low seismicity in the central area of the Groningen field immediately after reduction in production. The geomechanical model findings support scope for mitigating induced seismicity through adjusting rates of pressure change by cutting down production.

In this paper we present a probabilistic fast model for performance assessment of geothermal doublets for direct heat applications. It is a simple yet versatile and multipurpose tool. It can be well applied in better understanding the sensitivity of performance to key subsurface parameters and depth trends therein, and for assessing the probability of success for geothermal projects under technical and financial constraints.The underlying algorithms deliver a sensible accuracy given the uncertainties associated with geothermal projects at exploration state. A public release of the software, available under the name of DoubletCalc, is easy to handle and requires a limited set of input parameters. Thanks to an open source code, DoubletCalc can be implemented in other software applications and extended as it has been implemented for the integration into the national geothermal information system in the Netherlands (ThermoGIS, 2011).Apart from its application for site assessments, the tool can be integrated into automated workflows processing faster representations of key aquifer properties and capable to produce indicative maps for predicted doublet power, economic feasibility and prediction of cumulative amount of heat that can be recovered. These capabilities are specifically important for decision support for policymakers while assessing the effects of particular insurance schemes and funding mechanisms.DoubletCalc cannot and is not intended to substitute geologic exploration approaches. As exploration measures, such as seismic surveys are cost intensive, DoubletCalc can be used to focus geothermal exploration on areas and sites where an enhanced probability of success can be expected.

In the Netherlands, over 190 gas fields of varying size have been exploited, and 15% of these have shown seismicity. The prime cause for seismicity due to gas depletion is stress changes caused by pressure depletion and by differential compaction. The observed onset of induced seismicity due to gas depletion in the Netherlands occurs after a considerable pressure drop in the gas fields. Geomechanical studies show that both the delay in the onset of induced seismicity and the nonlinear increase in seismic moment observed for the induced seismicity in the Groningen field can be explained by a model of pressure depletion, if the faults causing the induced seismicity are not critically stressed at the onset of depletion. Our model shows concave patterns of log moment with time for individual faults. This suggests that the growth of future seismicity could well be more limited than would be inferred from extrapolation of the observed trend between production or compaction and seismicity. The geomechanical models predict that seismic moment increase should slow down significantly immediately after a production decrease, independently of the decay rate of the compaction model. These findings are in agreement with the observed reduced seismicity rates in the central area of the Groningen field immediately after production decrease on 17 January 2014. The geomechanical model findings therefore support scope for mitigating induced seismicity by adjusting rates of production and associated pressure change. These simplified models cannot serve as comprehensive models for predicting induced seismicity in any particular field. To this end, a more detailed field-specific study, taking into account the full complexity of reservoir geometry, depletion history and mechanical properties, is required.