Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized. Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis. Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales. We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight.

Globally, cephalopods support large industrial-scale fisheries and small-scale to partly large-scale local artisanal fisheries. They are of increasing economic importance as evidenced by the rapid rise in their global landings from 1950 to 2014. Cephalopods are sensitive to environmental variability and climate change and many if not all species show wide fluctuations in abundance. This is most evident in ommastrephid nerito-oceanic squid since their life cycle is associated with boundary currents that are changing with climate change. The inter-annual variability in catch presents challenges for fishers and managers due to the ‘boom-or-bust’ nature of the fishery. A key barrier to rational management of squid fisheries is the low level of development of fishery forecasting. Despite substantial progress made in relating squid population dynamics to environmental variability and change, several challenges remain to develop forecast products to support squid fisheries management. Ideally, squid fisheries management needs a forecasting system that includes all time-scales of forecasting, and especially short - and medium-terms forecasts. The present overview first provides current knowledge of the effects of climate change and variability on squid population dynamics, challenges and opportunities to advance ecological-fishery forecast products, and finally a roadmap is proposed for future development of forecasts products to support squid sustainable fisheries management. As for the adoption of specific forecasting methods to the squid fishery management process, what is important is the relationship between needs, feasibility, and the ultimate success of a forecast will be determined by whether it is used by end-users.