In the Paris Agreement, there are targets set up for 2100 to be well below 2 °C. A more ambitious target of 1.5 °C also appears in the agreement. In order to address whether this target is achievable or not, studies about the 1.5 °C target's emission pathway are essential. Recently a few studies have presented modelling results of the global emission pathway for the 1.5 °C target. This paper presents an analysis for China under the global 1.5 °C pathway and budget, by looking at key options to go beyond the 2 °C target pathway. Similar to the global emission pathway, China's CO₂ emissions have to be reduced quickly and reach zero emission between 2050 and 2060. China's energy system needs to make a rapid transition to much greater reduction in fossil fuel use from now on. End-use sectors need to increase electricity use significantly. Power generation will achieve negative emission before 2050. CCS will be widely used, and biomass energy with CCS (BECCS) must be adopted on a large scale by 2040. This is doable in China, but very near-term changes in policy are needed to make such a pathway happen.

The energy transition towards achieving carbon neutrality is marked by the decarbonization of the power system and a high degree of electrification in end-use sectors. The decarbonization of the power system primarily relies on large-scale renewable energy, nuclear power, and fossil fuel-based power with carbon capture technologies. This structure of power supply introduces significant uncertainty in electricity supply. Due to the technological progress in end-use sectors and spatial reallocation of industries in China, the load curve and power supply curve is very different today. However, most studies’ analyses of future electricity systems are based on today’s load curve, which could be misleading when seeking to understand future electricity systems. Therefore, it is essential to thoroughly analyze changes in end-use load curves to better align electricity demand with supply. This paper analyzes the characteristics of electricity demand load under China’s future energy transition and economic transformation pathways using the Integrated Energy and Environment Policy Assessment model of China (IPAC). It examines the electricity and energy usage characteristics of various sectors in six typical regions, provides 24-h load curves for two representative days, and evaluates the effectiveness of demand-side response in selected provinces in 2050. The study reveals that, with the transition of the energy system and the industrial relocation during economic transformation, the load curves in China’s major regions by 2050 will differ notably from those of today, with distinct characteristics emerging across different regions. With the costs of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power declining in the future, the resulting electricity price will also differ significantly from today. Daytime electricity prices will be notably lower than those during the evening peak, as the decrease in solar PV and wind power output leads to a significant increase in electricity costs. This pricing structure is expected to drive a strong demand-side response. Demand-side response can significantly improve the alignment between load curves and power supply.