As the core region of global steel production and consumption, the zero-carbon transition of China, Japan, and South Korea is crucial for global climate goals and industrial chain sustainability. Hydrogen-based direct reduction iron (H-DRI) production, powered by renewable energy, is a promising pathway for reducing carbon emissions. This study compares the competitive dynamics of hydrogen-based steel production in China, Japan, and South Korea, with a particular focus on the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH), and levelized cost of steel (LCOS) as key metrics for evaluating the economic viability of green hydrogen-based steel production. And then compares and analyzes the competitiveness of China, Japan, and South Korea in hydrogen-based steel production, focusing on the role of green hydrogen and renewable energy in shaping the future steel industry. This study examines the impact of technological advancements, resource endowments, and policy support on H-DRI production. It highlights the importance of offshore wind power in Japan and South Korea, where its development plays a key role in reducing the cost of green hydrogen production and providing a stable electricity supply for H-DRI production. However, the high capital expenditures (CAPEXs) and labor costs associated with offshore wind power in these countries make importing relevant technologies and products from China a more cost-effective option. This study also explores the strategic importance of international cooperation and technology transfer, emphasizing the potential for China, Japan, and South Korea to strengthen bilateral collaboration in green hydrogen and H-DRI technologies. Such cooperation supports the region’s steel decarbonization efforts and enhances its global competitiveness. The integration of offshore wind power and hydrogen production technologies offers new opportunities for energy cooperation in East Asia, with China playing a key role in providing low-cost green energy solutions.

The energy transition towards achieving carbon neutrality is marked by the decarbonization of the power system and a high degree of electrification in end-use sectors. The decarbonization of the power system primarily relies on large-scale renewable energy, nuclear power, and fossil fuel-based power with carbon capture technologies. This structure of power supply introduces significant uncertainty in electricity supply. Due to the technological progress in end-use sectors and spatial reallocation of industries in China, the load curve and power supply curve is very different today. However, most studies’ analyses of future electricity systems are based on today’s load curve, which could be misleading when seeking to understand future electricity systems. Therefore, it is essential to thoroughly analyze changes in end-use load curves to better align electricity demand with supply. This paper analyzes the characteristics of electricity demand load under China’s future energy transition and economic transformation pathways using the Integrated Energy and Environment Policy Assessment model of China (IPAC). It examines the electricity and energy usage characteristics of various sectors in six typical regions, provides 24-h load curves for two representative days, and evaluates the effectiveness of demand-side response in selected provinces in 2050. The study reveals that, with the transition of the energy system and the industrial relocation during economic transformation, the load curves in China’s major regions by 2050 will differ notably from those of today, with distinct characteristics emerging across different regions. With the costs of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power declining in the future, the resulting electricity price will also differ significantly from today. Daytime electricity prices will be notably lower than those during the evening peak, as the decrease in solar PV and wind power output leads to a significant increase in electricity costs. This pricing structure is expected to drive a strong demand-side response. Demand-side response can significantly improve the alignment between load curves and power supply.