A comprehensive individual toxicity risk profile is needed to improve radiation treatment optimisation, minimising toxicity burden, in head and neck cancer (HNC) patients. We aimed to develop and externally validate NTCP models for various toxicities at multiple time points. Using logistic regression, we determined the relationship between normal tissue irradiation and the risk of 22 toxicities at ten time points during and after treatment in 750 HNC patients. The toxicities involved swallowing, salivary, mucosal, speech, pain and general complaints. Studied predictors included patient, tumour and treatment characteristics and dose parameters of 28 organs. The resulting NTCP models were externally validated in 395 HNC patients. The NTCP models involved 14 organs that were associated with at least one toxicity. The oral cavity was the predominant organ, associated with 12 toxicities. Other important organs included the parotid and submandibular glands, buccal mucosa and swallowing muscles. In addition, baseline toxicity, treatment modality, and tumour site were common predictors of toxicity. The median discrimination performance (AUC) of the models was 0.71 (interquartile range: 0.68-0.75) at internal validation and 0.67 (interquartile range: 0.62-0.71) at external validation. We established a comprehensive individual toxicity risk profile that provides essential insight into how radiation exposure of various organs translates into multiple acute and late toxicities. This comprehensive understanding of radiation-induced toxicities enables a new radiation treatment optimisation concept that balances multiple toxicity risks simultaneously and minimises the overall toxicity burden for an individual HNC patient who needs to undergo radiation treatment.

Objectives: Human papillomavirus (HPV) positive oropharyngeal cancer (oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, OPSCC) is biologically and clinically different from HPV negative OPSCC. Here, we evaluate the use of a radiomic approach to identify the HPV status of OPSCC. Methods: Four independent cohorts, totaling 778 OPSCC patients with HPV determined by p16 were collected. We randomly assigned 80% of all data for model training (N = 628) and 20% for validation (N = 150). On the pre-treatment CT images, 902 radiomic features were calculated from the gross tumor volume. Multivariable modeling was performed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. To assess the impact of CT artifacts in predicting HPV (p16), a model was developed on all training data (Mall) and on the artifact-free subset of training data (Mno art). Models were validated on all validation data (Vall), and the subgroups with (Vart) and without (Vno art) artifacts. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was performed to compare HPV status based on p16 and radiomic model predictions. Results: The area under the receiver operator curve for Mall and Mno art ranged between 0.70 and 0.80 and was not significantly different for all validation data sets. There was a consistent and significant split between survival curves with HPV status determined by p16 [p = 0.007; hazard ratio (HR): 0.46], Mall (p = 0.036; HR: 0.55) and Mno art (p = 0.027; HR: 0.49). Conclusion: This study provides proof of concept that molecular information can be derived from standard medical images and shows potential for radiomics as imaging biomarker of HPV status. Advances in knowledge: Radiomics has the potential to identify clinically relevant molecular phenotypes.

Background: Failure of locoregional control is the main cause of recurrence in advanced head and neck cancer. This multi-center trial aims to improve outcome in two ways. Firstly, by redistribution of the radiation dose to the metabolically most FDG-PET avid part of the tumour. Hereby, a biologically more effective dose distribution might be achieved while simultaneously sparing normal tissues. Secondly, by improving patient selection. Both cisplatin and Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) antibodies like Cetuximab in combination with Radiotherapy (RT) are effective in enhancing tumour response. However, it is unknown which patients will benefit from either agent in combination with irradiation. We will analyze the predictive value of biological markers and ⁸⁹Zr-Cetuximab uptake for treatment outcome of chemoradiation with Cetuximab or cisplatin to improve patient selection. Methods: ARTFORCE is a randomized phase II trial for 268 patients with a factorial 2 by 2 design: cisplatin versus Cetuximab and standard RT versus redistributed RT. Cisplatin is dosed weekly 40 mg/m² for 6 weeks. Cetuximab is dosed 250mg/m² weekly (loading dose 400 mg/m²) for 6 weeks. The standard RT regimen consists of elective RT up to 54.25 Gy with a simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) to 70 Gy in 35 fractions in 6 weeks. Redistributed adaptive RT consists of elective RT up to 54.25 Gy with a SIB between 64-80 Gy in 35 fractions in 6 weeks with redistributed dose to the gross tumour volume (GTV) and clinical target volume (CTV), and adaptation of treatment for anatomical changes in the third week of treatment. Patients with locally advanced, biopsy confirmed squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx, oral cavity or hypopharynx are eligible. Primary endpoints are: locoregional recurrence free survival at 2 years, correlation of the median ⁸⁹Zr-cetuximab uptake and biological markers with treatment specific outcome, and toxicity. Secondary endpoints are quality of life, swallowing function preservation, progression free and overall survival. Discussion: The objective of the ARTFORCE Head and Neck trial is to determine the predictive value of biological markers and ⁸⁹Zr-Cetuximab uptake, as it is unknown how to select patients for the appropriate concurrent agent. Also we will determine if adaptive RT and dose redistribution improve locoregional control without increasing toxicity. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01504815

Background: Chemoradiation or bioradiation treatment (CRT/BRT) of locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (LAHNSCC) comes with high toxicity rates, often leading to temporary tube feeding (TF) dependency. Cachexia is a common problem in LAHNSCC. Yet changes in body composition and muscle weakness during CRT/BRT are underexplored. Strong evidence on the effect of TF on body composition during treatment is lacking. The aim of this cohort study was to assess (i) the relationship of fat‐free mass index (FFMI) and handgrip strength (HGS) with CRT/BRT toxicity and outcome, (ii) body composition in patients treated with chemoradiation (cisplatin) vs. bioradiation (cetuximab), and (iii) the effect of the current TF regime on body composition and muscle strength.Methods: Locally advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma patients treated with CRT/BRT between January 2013 and December 2016 were included (n = 137). Baseline measurements of body composition (bioelectrical impedance analysis) and HGS were performed. Toxicity grades (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events) were scored. In a subset of 69 patients, weight loss, body composition, and HGS were additionally assessed during and after CRT/BRT. TF was initiated according to the Dutch guidelines for malnutrition.Results: In this cohort (68% male, mean age 59 ± 8 years), the incidence of baseline muscle wasting, defined as FFMI < P₁₀, was 29%. Muscle wasting was present in 23 of 100 (23%) chemoradiation patients and 17 of 37 (46%) bioradiation patients (P = 0.009). Muscle‐wasted patients required more unplanned hospitalizations during CRT (P = 0.035). In the chemoradiation subset, dose‐limiting toxicity was significantly higher in wasted vs. non‐wasted patients (57% vs. 25%, P = 0.004). Median follow‐up was 32 months. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified muscle wasting as independent unfavourable prognostic factor for overall survival [hazard ratio 2.1 (95% CI 1.1–4.1), P = 0.022] and cisplatin as favourable prognostic factor [hazard ratio 0.3 (95% CI 0.2–0.6), P = 0.001]. Weight and HGS significantly decreased during CRT/BRT, −3.7 ± 3.5 kg (P < 0.001) and −3.1 ± 6.0 kg (P < 0.001), respectively. Sixty‐four per cent of the patients required TF 21 days (range 0–59) after CRT/BRT initiation. Total weight loss during CRT/BRT was significantly (P = 0.007) higher in the total oral diet group (5.5 ± 3.7 kg) compared with the TF group (3.0 ± 3.2 kg). Loss of FFM and HGS was similar in both groups.Conclusions: In LAHNSCC patients undergoing CRT/BRT, FFMI < P₁₀ is an unfavourable prognostic factor for overall survival, treatment toxicity, and tolerance. Patients experience significant weight and FFM loss during treatment. Current TF regime attenuates weight loss but does not overcome loss of muscle mass and function during therapy. Future interventions should consider nutritional intake and additional strategies specifically targeting metabolism, loss of muscle mass, and function.

Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) models can be used for treatment plan optimisation and patient selection for emerging treatment techniques. We discuss and suggest methodological approaches to address key challenges in NTCP model development and validation, including: missing data, non-linear response relationships, multicollinearity between predictors, overfitting, generalisability and the prediction of multiple complication grades at multiple time points. The methodological approaches chosen are aimed to improve the accuracy, transparency and robustness of future NTCP-models. We demonstrate our methodological approaches using clinical data.