Forest conservation is of particular concern in tropical regions where a large refuge of biodiversity is still existing. These areas are threatened by deforestation, forest degradation and fragmentation. Especially, pressures of anthropogenic activities adjacent to these areas significantly influence conservation effectiveness. Ecuador was chosen as study area since it is a globally relevant center of forest ecosystems and biodiversity. We identified hotspots of deforestation on the national level of continental Ecuador between 1990 and 2018, analyzed the most significant drivers of deforestation on national and biome level (the Coast, the Andes, The Amazon) as well as inside protected areas in Ecuador by using multiple regression analysis. We separated the national system of protected areas (SNAP) into higher and lower protection levels. Besides SNAP, we also considered Biosphere Reserves (BRs) and Ramsar sites. In addition, we investigated the rates and spatial patterns of deforestation in protected areas and buffer zones (5 km and 10 km outwards the protected area boundaries) using landscape metrics. Between 1990 and 2018, approximately 4% of the accumulated deforestation occurred within the boundaries of SNAP, and up to 25.5% in buffer zones. The highest rates of deforestation have been found in the 5 km buffer zone around the protected areas with the highest protection level. Protected areas and their buffer zones with higher protection status were identified as the most deforested areas among SNAP. BRs had the highest deforestation rates among all protected areas but most of these areas just became BRs after the year 2000. The most important driver of deforestation is agriculture. Other relevant drivers differ between the biomes. The results suggest that the SNAP is generally effective to prevent deforestation within their protection boundaries. However, deforestation around protected areas can undermine conservation strategies to sustain biodiversity. Actions to address such dynamics and patterns of deforestation and forest fragmentation, and developing conservation strategies of their landscape context are urgently needed especially in the buffer zones of areas with the highest protection status.

Natural ecosystems are declining and fragmenting globally at unprecedented rates. Fragmentation of natural ecosystems leads to decline in functions and services with severe impact on people. In Ecuador, despite establishment of the nationwide ecosystem classification, this baseline information has not been fully exploited to generate a monitoring system for ecosystem changes. Forest ecosystems are altered daily in Ecuador by human impact, but the relationship between forest fragmentation and human land use has not been adequately explored. To provide an overview of how recent forest fragmentation at the national and ecosystem level was affected by practices in human land use, we quantified the degree of forest fragmentation using the forest fragmentation index (FFI). The relationship between the degree of forest ecosystem fragmentation and human land use of 64 natural forest ecosystems was analyzed during the time period 1990 to 2014. At the national level, the expansion of pasture and inhabited area significantly increased forest fragmentation. The regression models based on the FFI value indicated that the forest fragmentation was highly correlated to pastures in forest ecosystems with low, moderate, and high fragmentation in 2014 due to a progressive increase in pastures. This study showed the critical gaps between forest conservation strategies and actual practices in human land use.

Settlement expansion and commercial agriculture affect landscape sustainability and ecosystem service provision. Integrated landscape approaches are promoted to negotiate trade-offs between competing land uses and their reconciliation. Incorporating local perceptions of landscape dynamics as basis for such negotiations is particularly relevant for sub-Saharan Africa, where most people depend on natural ecosystems for livelihoods and well-being. This study applied participatory scenario building and spatially explicit simulation to unravel perceptions of the potential impact of rubber and settlement expansion on the provision of selected ecosystem services in southwestern Ghana under a business-as-usual scenario. We collected data in workshops and expert surveys on locally relevant ecosystem services, their indicator values, and the probable land-use transitions. The data was translated into an assessment matrix and integrated into a spatially explicit modeling platform, allowing visualization and comparison of the impact on ecosystem service provision of land-use scenarios under rubber plantation and settlement expansion. The results show the capacity of current (2020) and future land-use patterns to provide locally relevant ecosystem services, indicating a decline in capacity of ecosystem service provisioning in the future compared to the 2020 land-use patterns, a threat to the benefits humans derive from ecosystems. This highlights urgent need for policies and measures to control the drivers of land-use/land-cover change. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of diversifying land-use/land-cover types for sustainable landscape development. The paper contributes new insights into how spatially explicit and semi-quantitative methods can make stakeholder perceptions of landscape dynamics explicit as a basis for implementing integrated landscape approaches.

The understanding of multiple effects by possible future development is essential for adapted land use planning. This study assessed the potential of land use scenarios for the provision of ecosystem services using local knowledge in two districts of northern Ghana. Local knowledge was gathered through surveys with extension officers, who are regarded as eligible knowledge holders for agricultural land use. Firstly, ecosystem services that were perceived as important by the stakeholders were identified, namely food, fodder, energy, construction materials, marketable products, water provision, and erosion control. Quantitative indicators were then determined to analyze the capacity of land use types to supply the ecosystem services. Land use scenarios were developed based on their applicability and capacity to mitigate climate change impacts. The perception of stakeholders was applied to evaluate changes in ecosystem services provision by the scenarios. A modeling approach for a spatially explicit simulation was used to assess the potential to provide ecosystem services at a district level. The results reflected the different trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services of each scenario, depending on the district. Along with the local perception, characteristics of land use patterns also influenced the regional potential of ecosystem services provision.

In West Africa, where the majority of the population relies on natural resources and rain-fed agriculture, regionally adapted agricultural land-use planning is increasingly important to cope with growing demand for land-use products and intensifying climate variability. As an approach to identify effective future land-use strategies, this study applied spatially explicit modeling that addresses the spatial connectivity between the provision of ecosystem services and agricultural land-use systems. Considering that the status of ecosystem services varies with the perception of stakeholders, local knowledge, and characteristics of a case study area, two adjoining districts in northern Ghana were integrated into an assessment process of land-use strategies. Based on agricultural land-management options that were identified together with the local stakeholders, 75 future land-use strategies as combinations of multiple agricultural practices were elaborated. Potential impacts of the developed land-use strategies on ecosystem services and land-use patterns were assessed in a modeling platform that combines Geographic Information System (GIS) and Cellular Automaton (CA) modules. Modeled results were used to identify best land-use strategies that could deliver multiple ecosystem services most effectively. Then, local perception was applied to determine the feasibility of the best land-use strategies in practice. The results presented the different extent of trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services delivered by future land-use strategies and their different feasibility depending on the district. Apart from the fact that findings were context-specific and scale-dependent, this study revealed that the integration of different local characteristics and local perceptions to spatially explicit ecosystem service assessment is beneficial for determining locally tailored recommendations for future agricultural land-use planning.