One of the areas where Artificial Intelligence is having more impact is machine learning, which develops algorithms able to learn patterns and decision rules from data. Machine learning algorithms have been embedded into data mining pipelines, which can combine them with classical statistical strategies, to extract knowledge from data. Within the EU-funded MOSAIC project, a data mining pipeline has been used to derive a set of predictive models of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) complications based on electronic health record data of nearly one thousand patients. Such pipeline comprises clinical center profiling, predictive model targeting, predictive model construction and model validation. After having dealt with missing data by means of random forest (RF) and having applied suitable strategies to handle class imbalance, we have used Logistic Regression with stepwise feature selection to predict the onset of retinopathy, neuropathy, or nephropathy, at different time scenarios, at 3, 5, and 7 years from the first visit at the Hospital Center for Diabetes (not from the diagnosis). Considered variables are gender, age, time from diagnosis, body mass index (BMI), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), hypertension, and smoking habit. Final models, tailored in accordance with the complications, provided an accuracy up to 0.838. Different variables were selected for each complication and time scenario, leading to specialized models easy to translate to the clinical practice.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has clearly shown that major challenges and threats for humankind need to be addressed with global answers and shared decisions. Data and their analytics are crucial components of such decision-making activities. Rather interestingly, one of the most difficult aspects is reusing and sharing of accurate and detailed clinical data collected by Electronic Health Records (EHR), even if these data have a paramount importance. EHR data, in fact, are not only essential for supporting day-by-day activities, but also they can leverage research and support critical decisions about effectiveness of drugs and therapeutic strategies. In this paper, we will concentrate our attention on collaborative data infrastructures to support COVID-19 research and on the open issues of data sharing and data governance that COVID-19 had made emerge. Data interoperability, healthcare processes modelling and representation, shared procedures to deal with different data privacy regulations, and data stewardship and governance are seen as the most important aspects to boost collaborative research. Lessons learned from COVID-19 pandemic can be a strong element to improve international research and our future capability of dealing with fast developing emergencies and needs, which are likely to be more frequent in the future in our connected and intertwined world.

To describe the development, as part of the European Union MOSAIC (Models and Simulation Techniques for Discovering Diabetes Influence Factors) project, of a dashboard-based system for the management of type 2 diabetes and assess its impact on clinical practice. The MOSAIC dashboard system is based on predictive modeling, longitudinal data analytics, and the reuse and integration of data from hospitals and public health repositories. Data are merged into an i2b2 data warehouse, which feeds a set of advanced temporal analytic models, including temporal abstractions, care-flow mining, drug exposure pattern detection, and risk-prediction models for type 2 diabetes complications. The dashboard has 2 components, designed for (1) clinical decision support during follow-up consultations and (2) outcome assessment on populations of interest. To assess the impact of the clinical decision support component, a pre-post study was conducted considering visit duration, number of screening examinations, and lifestyle interventions. A pilot sample of 700 Italian patients was investigated. Judgments on the outcome assessment component were obtained via focus groups with clinicians and health care managers. The use of the decision support component in clinical activities produced a reduction in visit duration (P ≪ .01) and an increase in the number of screening exams for complications (P < .01). We also observed a relevant, although nonstatistically significant, increase in the proportion of patients receiving lifestyle interventions (from 69% to 77%). Regarding the outcome assessment component, focus groups highlighted the system’s capability of identifying and understanding the characteristics of patient subgroups treated at the center. Our study demonstrates that decision support tools based on the integration of multiple-source data and visual and predictive analytics do improve the management of a chronic disease such as type 2 diabetes by enacting a successful implementation of the learning health care system cycle.

Aims: In type 2 diabetes, we aimed at clarifying the role of glycated haemoglobin variability and other risk factors in the development of the main micro-vascular complications: peripheral neuropathy, nephropathy and retinopathy. Methods: In a single-centre cohort of 900 patients, glycated haemoglobin variability was evaluated as intra-individual standard deviation, adjusted standard deviation and coefficient of variation of serially measured glycated haemoglobin in the 2-year period before a randomly selected index visit. We devised four models considering different aspects of glycated haemoglobin evolution. Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed including the following covariates at the index visit: age, disease duration, body mass index, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, sex, smoking habit, hypertension, dyslipidemia, treatment with anti-diabetic drugs, occurrence of macro-vascular events and the presence of another micro-vascular complication. Results: Males with high mean glycated haemoglobin, long duration of diabetes, presence of macro-vascular events and retinopathy emerged at higher risk for peripheral neuropathy. Development of nephropathy was independently associated with higher glycated haemoglobin variability, older age, male sex, current smoking status, presence of retinopathy, of peripheral neuropathy and of hypertension. Higher mean glycated haemoglobin, younger age, longer duration of diabetes, reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate and the presence of peripheral neuropathy were significantly associated with increased incidence of retinopathy. Conclusion: Glycated haemoglobin variability was associated with increased incidence of nephropathy, while mean glycated haemoglobin emerged as independent risk factor for the development of retinopathy and peripheral neuropathy. The presence of macro-vascular events was positively correlated with peripheral neuropathy. Finally, the occurrence of another micro-vascular complication was found to be a stronger risk factor for developing another micro-vascular complication than the mean or variability of glycated haemoglobin.