One of the areas where Artificial Intelligence is having more impact is machine learning, which develops algorithms able to learn patterns and decision rules from data. Machine learning algorithms have been embedded into data mining pipelines, which can combine them with classical statistical strategies, to extract knowledge from data. Within the EU-funded MOSAIC project, a data mining pipeline has been used to derive a set of predictive models of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) complications based on electronic health record data of nearly one thousand patients. Such pipeline comprises clinical center profiling, predictive model targeting, predictive model construction and model validation. After having dealt with missing data by means of random forest (RF) and having applied suitable strategies to handle class imbalance, we have used Logistic Regression with stepwise feature selection to predict the onset of retinopathy, neuropathy, or nephropathy, at different time scenarios, at 3, 5, and 7 years from the first visit at the Hospital Center for Diabetes (not from the diagnosis). Considered variables are gender, age, time from diagnosis, body mass index (BMI), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), hypertension, and smoking habit. Final models, tailored in accordance with the complications, provided an accuracy up to 0.838. Different variables were selected for each complication and time scenario, leading to specialized models easy to translate to the clinical practice.

Objectives To evaluate changes in demographic, clinical and histological presentation, and prognosis of lupus nephritis (LN) over time. Patients and methods We studied a multicentre cohort of 499 patients diagnosed with LN from 1970 to 2016. The 46-year follow-up was subdivided into three periods (P): P1 1970–1985, P2 1986–2001 and P3 2002–2016, and patients accordingly grouped based on the year of LN diagnosis. Predictors of patient and renal survival were investigated by univariate and multivariate proportional hazards Cox regression analyses. Survival curves were compared using the log-rank test. Results A progressive increase in patient age at the time of LN diagnosis (p<0.0001) and a longer time between systemic lupus erythematosus onset and LN occurrence (p<0.0001) was observed from 1970 to 2016. During the same period, the frequency of renal insufficiency at the time of LN presentation progressively decreased (p<0.0001) and that of isolated urinary abnormalities increased (p<0.0001). No changes in histological class and activity index were observed, while chronicity index significantly decreased from 1970 to 2016 (p=0.023). Survival without end-stage renal disease (ESRD) was 87% in P1, 94% in P2% and 99% in P3 at 10 years, 80% in P1 and 90% in P2 at 20 years (p=0.0019). At multivariate analysis, male gender, arterial hypertension, absence of maintenance immunosuppressive therapy, increased serum creatinine, and high activity and chronicity index were independent predictors of ESRD. Conclusions Clinical presentation of LN has become less severe in the last years, leading to a better long-term renal survival.

To describe the development, as part of the European Union MOSAIC (Models and Simulation Techniques for Discovering Diabetes Influence Factors) project, of a dashboard-based system for the management of type 2 diabetes and assess its impact on clinical practice. The MOSAIC dashboard system is based on predictive modeling, longitudinal data analytics, and the reuse and integration of data from hospitals and public health repositories. Data are merged into an i2b2 data warehouse, which feeds a set of advanced temporal analytic models, including temporal abstractions, care-flow mining, drug exposure pattern detection, and risk-prediction models for type 2 diabetes complications. The dashboard has 2 components, designed for (1) clinical decision support during follow-up consultations and (2) outcome assessment on populations of interest. To assess the impact of the clinical decision support component, a pre-post study was conducted considering visit duration, number of screening examinations, and lifestyle interventions. A pilot sample of 700 Italian patients was investigated. Judgments on the outcome assessment component were obtained via focus groups with clinicians and health care managers. The use of the decision support component in clinical activities produced a reduction in visit duration (P ≪ .01) and an increase in the number of screening exams for complications (P < .01). We also observed a relevant, although nonstatistically significant, increase in the proportion of patients receiving lifestyle interventions (from 69% to 77%). Regarding the outcome assessment component, focus groups highlighted the system’s capability of identifying and understanding the characteristics of patient subgroups treated at the center. Our study demonstrates that decision support tools based on the integration of multiple-source data and visual and predictive analytics do improve the management of a chronic disease such as type 2 diabetes by enacting a successful implementation of the learning health care system cycle.

The MobiGuide project aimed to establish a ubiquitous, user-friendly, patient-centered mobile decision-support system for patients and for their care providers, based on the continuous application of clinical guidelines and on semantically integrated electronic health records. Patients would be empowered by the system, which would enable them to lead their normal daily lives in their regular environment, while feeling safe, because their health state would be continuously monitored using mobile sensors and self-reporting of symptoms. When conditions occur that require medical attention, patients would be notified as to what they need to do, based on evidence-based guidelines, while their medical team would be informed appropriately, in parallel. We wanted to assess the system's feasibility and potential effects on patients and care providers in two different clinical domains. We describe MobiGuide's architecture, which embodies these objectives. Our novel methodologies include a ubiquitous architecture, encompassing a knowledge elicitation process for parallel coordinated workflows for patients and care providers; the customization of computer-interpretable guidelines (CIGs) by secondary contexts affecting remote management and distributed decision-making; a mechanism for episodic, on demand projection of the relevant portions of CIGs from a centralized, backend decision-support system (DSS), to a local, mobile DSS, which continuously delivers the actual recommendations to the patient; shared decision-making that embodies patient preferences; semantic data integration; and patient and care provider notification services. MobiGuide has been implemented and assessed in a preliminary fashion in two domains: atrial fibrillation (AF), and gestational diabetes Mellitus (GDM). Ten AF patients used the AF MobiGuide system in Italy and 19 GDM patients used the GDM MobiGuide system in Spain. The evaluation of the MobiGuide system focused on patient and care providers' compliance to CIG recommendations and their satisfaction and quality of life. Our evaluation has demonstrated the system's capability for supporting distributed decision-making and its use by patients and clinicians. The results show that compliance of GDM patients to the most important monitoring targets - blood glucose levels (performance of four measurements a day: 0.87±0.11; measurement according to the recommended frequency of every day or twice a week: 0.99±0.03), ketonuria (0.98±0.03), and blood pressure (0.82±0.24) - was high in most GDM patients, while compliance of AF patients to the most important targets was quite high, considering the required ECG measurements (0.65±0.28) and blood-pressure measurements (0.75±1.33). This outcome was viewed by the clinicians as a major potential benefit of the system, and the patients have demonstrated that they are capable of self-monitoring - something that they had not experienced before. In addition, the system caused the clinicians managing the AF patients to change their diagnosis and subsequent treatment for two of the ten AF patients, and caused the clinicians managing the GDM patients to start insulin therapy earlier in two of the 19 patients, based on system's recommendations. Based on the end-of-study questionnaires, the sense of safety that the system has provided to the patients was its greatest asset. Analysis of the patients' quality of life (QoL) questionnaires for the AF patients was inconclusive, because while most patients reported an improvement in their quality of life in the EuroQoL questionnaire, most AF patients reported a deterioration in the AFEQT questionnaire. Feasibility and some of the potential benefits of an evidence-based distributed patient-guidance system were demonstrated in both clinical domains. The potential application of MobiGuide to other medical domains is supported by its standards-based patient health record with multiple electronic medical record linking capabilities, generic data insertion methods, generic medical knowledge representation and application methods, and the ability to communicate with a wide range of sensors. Future larger scale evaluations can assess the impact of such a system on clinical outcomes. MobiGuide's feasibility was demonstrated by a working prototype for the AF and GDM domains, which is usable by patients and clinicians, achieving high compliance to self-measurement recommendations, while enhancing the satisfaction of patients and care providers.