Pine wilt disease (PWD) is characterized by rapid transmission, high mortality rates, and difficulty in control, resulting in severe and destructive impacts on both the ecological environment and socioeconomic development in China. Due to the lack of significant symptoms in infected trees during the early stages of the disease, improving the accuracy of early detection has become a major challenge in PWD monitoring. In recent years, the rapid advancement of UAV-based hyperspectral remote sensing technology has provided a promising approach for the early detection of PWD. In this study, we selected classic canopy pigment and moisture content indices to construct a set of recognition indicators. The optimal canopy pigment index (CI) and canopy moisture content index (WASCOSBNDI) were then chosen through significance testing and derivative analysis. Based on the asynchronous variations in canopy moisture and pigment content during the development of PWD, the CI, WASCOSBNDI, and CI-WASCOSBNDI models were developed using a multi-threshold segmentation method to identify trees at different stages of infection. The results demonstrate that the CI-WASCOSBNDI model achieved the highest accuracy in detecting infection stages, with an overall classification accuracy of 92.78%. In comparison, the CI and WASCOSBNDI models achieved classification accuracies of 81.34% and 89.84%, respectively. For the early stage infected trees, which are the primary focus of this study, the CI-WASCOSBNDI model exhibited the best performance with an accuracy rate exceeding 70%, significantly outperforming the other models. Furthermore, the timing of infection in early stage trees significantly influenced the model’s detection accuracy, with trees closer to the disease outbreak period being more easily identified. These findings provide a reference for the accurate early monitoring of PWD using UAV hyperspectral imagery.

Chinese forests, particularly the coniferous forest ecosystems represented by pines, play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, significantly contributing to mitigating climate change, regulating regional climates, and maintaining ecological balance. However, pine wilt disease (PWD), caused by the pine wood nematode (PWN), has become a major threat to forest carbon stocks in China. This study evaluates the impact of PWN invasion on forest carbon stocks in China using multi-source data and an optimized MaxEnt model, and the study analyzes this invasion’s spread trends and potential risk areas. The results show that the high-suitability area for PWN has expanded from 68,000 km² in 2002 to 184,000 km² in 2021, with the spread of PWN accelerating, especially under warm and humid climate conditions and due to human activities. China’s forest carbon stocks increased from 111.34 billion tons of carbon (tC) to 168.05 billion tC, but the carbon risk due to PWN invasion also increased from 87 million tC to 99 million tC, highlighting the ongoing threat to the carbon storage capacity. The study further reveals significant differences in tree species’ sensitivity to PWN, with highly sensitive species such as Masson’s pine and black pine mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal regions, while less sensitive species such as white pine and larch show stronger resistance in the northern and southwestern areas. This finding highlights the vulnerability of high-sensitivity tree species to PWN, especially in high-risk areas such as Guangdong, Guangxi, and Guizhou, where urgent and effective control measures are needed to reduce carbon stock losses. To address this challenge, the study recommends strengthening monitoring in high-risk areas and proposes specific measures to improve forest management and policy interventions, including promoting cross-regional joint control, enhancing early warning systems, and utilizing biological control measures, while encouraging local governments and communities to actively participate. By strengthening collaboration and implementing control measures, the health and sustainable development of forest ecosystems can be ensured, safeguarding the forests’ important role in climate regulation and carbon sequestration and contributing to global climate change mitigation.