Late Quaternary megafauna extinctions impoverished mammalian diversity worldwide. The causes of these extinctions in Australia are most controversial but essential to resolve, because this continent-wide event presaged similar losses that occurred thousands of years later on other continents. Here we apply a rigorous metadata analysis and new ensemble-hindcasting approach to 659 Australian megafauna fossil ages. When coupled with analysis of several high-resolution climate records, we show that megafaunal extinctions were broadly synchronous among genera and independent of climate aridity and variability in Australia over the last 120,000 years. Our results reject climate change as the primary driver of megafauna extinctions in the world’s most controversial context, and instead estimate that the megafauna disappeared Australia-wide ∼13,500 years after human arrival, with shorter periods of coexistence in some regions. This is the first comprehensive approach to incorporate uncertainty in fossil ages, extinction timing and climatology, to quantify mechanisms of prehistorical extinctions.

Summary: New evidence of impacts by feral horses in Australia's alpine parks systems confirms they endanger threatened species and extensively damage critically endangered bog communities that could take millennia to recover. These impacts are not confounded by effects of deer and accumulate over time, even when only a small number of feral horses (~100) are present. With protected areas representing only a small proportion of the area of the Australian states of New South Wales (9.3%) and Victoria (17%), allowing feral horses to degrade reserves is not a reasonable management compromise, is contrary to the purpose of the protected area system and conflicts with international obligations. Modelling and decades of management experience indicate that trapping alone does not control feral horse numbers. Trapping and fertility control can work in small populations, but not when there are several thousand horses in remote areas. Aerial culling is needed to cost‐effectively and humanely control feral horse populations. The relatively small amount of suffering feral horses experience during a cull is outweighed by (i) avoiding suffering and death of horses from starvation and thirst, (ii) avoiding the suffering of native animals displaced by horses and (iii) avoiding the ethical concerns of driving threatened species towards extinction. Objections to aerial culling on welfare and cultural grounds are contradicted by evidence. Improving knowledge in the general community about what is at stake is long overdue because without this knowledge, small groups with vested interests and unfounded claims have been able to dominate debate and dictate management actions. As a result of ineffective management, horse populations are now expanding and causing well‐documented damage to Australia's alpine parks, placing at risk almost $10M spent on restoration after livestock grazing ended. The costs of horse control and restoration escalate the longer large horse populations remain in the alpine parks. It is crucial that feral horse numbers are rapidly reduced to levels where ecosystems begin to recover. Aerial culling is needed as part of the toolbox to achieve that reduction.

Tools for exploring and communicating the impact of uncertainty on spatial prediction are urgently needed, particularly when projecting species distributions to future conditions. We provide a tool for simulating uncertainty, focusing on uncertainty due to data quality. We illustrate the use of the tool using a Tasmanian endemic species as a case study. Our simulations provide probabilistic, spatially explicit illustrations of the impact of uncertainty on model projections. We also illustrate differences in model projections using six different global climate models and two contrasting emissions scenarios. Our case study results illustrate how different sources of uncertainty have different impacts on model output and how the geographic distribution of uncertainty can vary. Synthesis and applications: We provide a conceptual framework for understanding sources of uncertainty based on a review of potential sources of uncertainty in species distribution modelling; a tool for simulating uncertainty in species distribution models; and protocols for dealing with uncertainty due to climate models and emissions scenarios. Our tool provides a step forward in understanding and communicating the impacts of uncertainty on species distribution models under future climates which will be particularly helpful for informing discussions between researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners.

Summary: 1. Culling, either of all animals or infected animals only, is often suggested as a way of managing infectious diseases in wildlife populations. However, replicated experiments to investigate culling strategies are often impractical because of costs and ethical issues. Modelling therefore has an important role. Here, we describe a suite of models to investigate the culling of infected animals to control an infectious cancer in the Tasmanian devilSarcophilus harrisii.2. The Tasmanian devil is threatened by an infectious cancer, Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease. We developed deterministic susceptible, exposed and infectious (SEI) models with differing ways of incorporating the time delays inherent in the system. We used these to investigate the effectiveness for disease suppression of various strategies for the removal of infected animals.3. The predictions of our models were consistent with empirical time series on host population dynamics and disease prevalence. This implies that they are capturing the essential dynamics of the system to a plausible extent.4. A previous empirical study has shown that removals every 3 months did not appear to be sufficient to suppress disease in a semi‐isolated infected population. Our models are in accordance with this observed result. The models further predict that while more frequent removals are more likely to be effective, the removal rate necessary to successfully eliminate disease may be too high to be achievable.5. Synthesis and applications.Our results, in association with a previous experimental study, show that culling is unlikely to be a feasible strategy for managing Tasmanian devil facial tumour disease. Similar conclusions have been reached in studies of other wildlife diseases. We conclude that culling is rarely appropriate for controlling wildlife diseases and should only be attempted if models predict that it will be effective.