Greenhouse tomato production is highly influenced by environmental variability, where root-zone temperature plays a crucial role in fruit growth, biomass accumulation, and energy-use efficiency, particularly under winter low-temperature conditions. This study aimed to develop and validate a root-zone temperature dynamic regulation strategy for cherry tomato cultivation under multifactor coupled greenhouse conditions. Four root-zone temperature treatments were initially established: control (CK, no temperature regulation), T15 (setpoint of 15℃), T20 (setpoint of 20℃), and T25 (setpoint of 25℃). An IoT-based monitoring system was constructed to continuously collect root-zone temperature, substrate electrical conductivity, substrate moisture, air temperature, air humidity, CO2 concentration, light intensity, and fruit diameter data. With environmental factors as inputs, four machine learning models—Support Vector Regression (SVR), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—were developed and evaluated to predict fruit diameter growth. Taking fruit diameter growth as the optimization objective, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Genetic Algorithm (GA), and Simulated Annealing (SA) were employed to establish production-oriented root-zone temperature dynamic regulation strategies under environmental uncertainty. For the field validation, the dynamic temperature strategy was set as a treatment (DT) and compared with CK and constant-temperature treatments regarding to plant growth and energy consuming. The results showed that SVR achieved the best predictive performance for fruit diameter growth, with an R² of 0.8568 and an RMSE of 0.5142. All three optimization algorithms generated highly consistent optimal solutions, confirming the reliability of the scenario-based optimization framework. GA converged rapidly in terms of iteration number under the peak-growth and yield-oriented objectives, SA maintained comparatively balanced computational efficiency across the three objectives, whereas PSO exhibited greater sensitivity to the characteristics of the optimization objective. The yield-oriented strategy, which maximized the expected mean fruit growth response across representative environmental scenarios, was selected for field validation because it was most consistent with the commercial objective of improving population-level fruit growth and overall greenhouse yield. Under fluctuating winter greenhouse conditions, root-zone temperature regulation generally improved plant and fruit growth compared with the unheated control. DT produced the largest observed functional leaf phenotype, followed by T15, while T20 and T25 showed intermediate leaf development and CK exhibited the smallest leaves. During the early fruit expansion stage, DT showed the fastest expansion rate, while DT, T15, and T20 achieved greater fruit diameter increments than CK and T25. All heated treatments substantially increased fruit fresh and dry biomass compared with CK, and the largest numbers were observed in DT. Among the heated treatments, cumulative heating duration decreased in the order of T25 (2038.11 h), T20 (1985.12 h), T15 (1813.10 h), and DT (1605.41 h). Overall, DT achieved the best integrated agronomic and energy-use performance, which validated the developed framework of root-zone temperature dynamic regulation strategy.