Clarifying the trade-offs/synergies of ecosystem services is crucial for achieving a win-win situation in economic development and ecological conservation. Past studies have lacked research on ecosystem service functional management zones that integrate socio-economic factors and ecological conservation, particularly based on predictive scenarios. Based on the above, this study innovatively established a multi scenario simulation model and framework (EST-EMZ) for the study of ecosystem service (ES) trade-off/synergy and ecological management zoning, combining remote sensing and socio-economic data from 2000 to 2020 in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area (CZTMA). The model evaluates the dynamic trade-offs/synergies among different ecosystem services under various scenarios, aiming to seek the optimal management approach for enhancing the functionality and optimizing the structure of ESs in the future of the CZTMA. The results indicate the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) of the CZTMA gradually declined from 601.57 billion yuan to 584.65 billion yuan. Under the three future scenarios, the ESV also decreased, with the Ecological Conservation Scenario (ECS) experiencing the most minor decline, and the Economic Priority Scenario (EPS) witnessing the most substantial decrease. (2) In the historical period and the 2030 predicted scenarios, there is a predominant synergy among paired ESs in the CZTMA. Throughout the study period, the region’s dominant ecosystem service bundle (ESB) is the high-service ecological regulation bundle, primarily located in the northeastern, western, and southern areas dominated by forests. (3) Based on ESV and urbanization intensity (UI), five different ecosystem management zones were identified: water balance zone (WBZ), coordinated improvement zone (CIZ), ecologically weak zone (EWZ), ecological conservation zone (ECZ), and ecological derivative zone (EDZ). Corresponding management and protection strategies for ecosystem services were proposed. The research findings offer potential solutions for optimizing land use and managing the trade-offs of ESs in metropolitan areas.

As sensitive human-environment systems, lake-intensive regions are critical governance areas for advancing global low-carbon development. Rapid economic growth has intensified the imbalance between economic carbon sources and ecological carbon sinks in these regions. However, methods for measuring territorial space carbon budgets tailored to “production–living–ecological” functions are underdeveloped, and the mechanisms driving carbon imbalance risks remain unclear. To address these issues, this study develops a spatial measurement model for “carbon sources-carbon sinks” in the Dongting Lake region. Using exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis, this study identifies grid-scale variation patterns in carbon budgets. Finally, using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition model, this study examines the driving mechanisms of carbon budgets from a territorial space perspective. The results indicate the following: (1) The territorial space of the Dongting Lake region follows a pattern where “ecological spaces surround production spaces, with living spaces interspersed among water network spaces”. Between 2005 and 2020, functional transitions primarily occurred between agricultural production spaces and forest or water ecological spaces. (2) The study area’s territorial space carbon budgets increased annually, though the growth rate slowed. Construction land was the most significant carbon emission source in territorial space. Spatially, carbon budgets exhibit a radial pattern, with high values concentrated in plains near water bodies, gradually decreasing inland. Spatiotemporal differentiation followed a north–south development trend along the water system axis. High-High clusters were concentrated in municipal areas with dense water networks. In contrast, Low-Low clusters appeared in peripheral mountainous regions to the west, east, and south. (3) Land-use efficiency had the most potent inhibitory effect on carbon budgets, cumulatively reducing carbon emissions by 1.37 × 10⁸ tC. Economic development had the strongest positive effect, adding 1.31 × 10⁸ tC in carbon emissions. Therefore, the Dongting Lake region should promote intensive land use, adjust industrial structures, and develop a green ecological economy to achieve sustainable carbon source–sink management.