Maritime transport accounts for approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a figure projected to rise by 17% by 2050 without effective mitigation measures. Achieving zero-emission shipping requires a comprehensive strategy that integrates regulatory frameworks, alternative fuels, and energy-saving technologies. However, existing studies often fail to provide an integrated analysis of regulatory constraints, economic incentives, and technological feasibility. This study bridges this gap by developing an integrated model tailored for international maritime transport, incorporating regulatory constraints, economic incentives, and technological feasibility into a unified framework. The model is developed using a predictive approach to assess decarbonization pathways for global shipping from 2018 to 2035. A multi-criterion decision analysis (MCDA) framework, coupled with techno-economic modeling, evaluates the cost-effectiveness, technology readiness, and adoption potential of alternative fuels, operational strategies, and market-based measures. The results indicate that technical and operational measures alone can reduce emissions by up to 44%, while market-based measures improve the diversity of sustainable fuel adoption. Biofuels, particularly BISVO and BIFAME, emerge as preferred alternatives due to cost-effectiveness, while green hydrogen, ammonia, and biomethanol remain unviable without additional policy support. A strict carbon levy increases transport costs by 46%, whereas flexible compliance mechanisms limit cost increases to 14–25%. The proposed approach provides a robust decision-support framework for policymakers and industry stakeholders, ensuring transparency in evaluating the trade-offs between emissions reductions and economic feasibility, thereby guiding future regulatory strategies.

Maritime transport accounts for approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a figure projected to rise by 17% by 2050 without effective mitigation measures. Achieving zero-emission shipping requires a comprehensive strategy that integrates regulatory frameworks, alternative fuels, and energy saving technologies. However, existing studies often fail to provide an integrated analysis of regulatory constraints, economic incentives, and technological feasibility. This study bridges this gap by developing a predictive model to assess the decarbonization pathways for global shipping from 2018 to 2035. A multi-criterion decision analysis (MCDA) framework, coupled with techno-economic modeling, evaluates the cost-effectiveness, technology readiness, and adoption potential of alternative fuels, operational strategies, and market-based measures. The results indicate that technical and operational measures alone can reduce emissions by up to 44%, while market-based measures improve the diversity of sustainable fuel adoption. Biofuels, particularly BISVO and BIFAME, emerge as preferred alternatives due to cost-effectiveness, while green hydrogen, ammonia, and biomethanol remain unviable without additional policy support. A strict carbon levy increases transport costs by 46%, whereas flexible compliance mechanisms limit cost increases to 14–25%. This study provides a robust decision support framework for policy makers and industry stakeholders, demonstrating that well-structured market-based measures can balance emissions reductions with economic feasibility, guiding future regulatory strategies.

Maritime transport carries over 80% of global trade by volume and remains the most energy-efficient mode for long-distance goods movement. However, the sector contributes approximately 3% of global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, a share that could rise to 17% by 2050 without effective regulation. In response, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has introduced initial and short-term measures to enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions. In 2023, IMO Strategy expanded on these efforts with medium-term measures, including Market-Based Mechanisms (MBMs) such as a GHG levy, a feebate system, and fuel intensity regulations combined with carbon pricing. This study evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of these measures using an integrated computational simulation model that combines Ocean Engineering and Economics. Our results indicate that all proposed measures support the IMO’s intermediate emission reduction targets through 2035, cutting absolute emissions by more than 50%. However, economic impacts vary significantly across regions, with most of Africa, Asia, and South America experiencing the greatest adverse effects on GDP and trade. Among the measures, the GHG levy exerts the strongest pressure on economic activity and food prices, while a revised fuel intensity mechanism imposes lower costs, particularly in the short term. Revenue redistribution mitigates GDP losses but does so unevenly across regions. By leveraging a general equilibrium model (GTAP) to capture indirect effects often overlooked in prior studies, this analysis provides a comprehensive comparison of policy impacts. The findings underscore the need for equitable and pragmatic decarbonization strategies in the maritime sector, contributing to ongoing IMO policy discussions.

Maritime transport handles over 80% of global trade by volume and remains the most energyefficient mode for long-distance goods movement. However, the sector contributes approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a share projected to rise to 17% by 2050 if left unregulated. In response, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has implemented initial and short-term measures to enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions. The 2023 IMO Strategy further introduces medium-term measures, including market-based mechanisms (MBMs) such as a GHG levy and fuel intensity regulations. This study evaluates the economic, and environmental impacts of these measures using an integrated computational simulation model combining Ocean Engineering and Economics. Our results indicate that all proposed measures align with IMO’s emission reduction intermediate targets through 2035, reducing absolute emissions by more than 50%. However, economic impacts vary significantly across regions, with North Africa, Eastern Africa, Western Africa, and South Asia experiencing the most adverse effects on GDP and trade. Among the measures, the GHG levy has the strongest economic and food price impacts, whereas a revised fuel intensity mechanism imposes lower costs, especially in the short-term. Revenue redistribution mitigates GDP losses but with uneven regional benefits. This study contributes to IMO discussions by providing a comprehensive comparison of policy impacts, leveraging a general equilibrium model (GTAP) to capture indirect effects often overlooked in prior studies. The findings underscore the need for equitable and feasible decarbonization strategies in the maritime sector.