The Russian–Ukrainian conflict has led to the disruption of global supply chains, thus posing a threat to food security. The study aimed to assess the short-term impact of the conflict on food supply and global retail food prices resulting from the disruption of agri-food exports from Ukraine after the war outbreak. To assess the impact of the conflict on retail prices worldwide, the actual food price level during the conflict period was compared with the counterfactual values obtained from the forecasting models. The research points to a significant decline in Ukraine’s commodity exports at the beginning of the conflict leading to a supply gap for cereals in particular, affecting global access to staple foods. As a result, global food commodity prices rose sharply, however, the upsurge was short-lived, and as early as July 2022 price indices returned to their pre-war levels. On the other hand, in most regions worldwide the gradual and persistent increase in retail food prices was observed after the war outbreak. The study also found strong regional differentiation in the response of retail food prices to the conflict due to various specific factors that exacerbated or mitigated the impact of the war.

Research background: Food industry is of key importance to each economy due to its role in ensuring food security, balancing the labour market, as well as contributing to the economic growth and international trade. With a limited increase in demand for food in many highly developed countries, further growth in this sector of the economy will largely depend on the ability to successfully distribute manufactured goods in international markets and cope with competitive pressure from other entities. Purpose of the article: Therefore, the study attempts to assess the determinants of international competitiveness of the food industry worldwide measured by the trade balance. Methods: The research was based on data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Data Center (UNCTADStat) and the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The time frame for the analyses was determined by the availability of internationally comparable data and thus covered the period of 2000?2014. The empirical analysis was performed with the use of panel models, while international competitiveness was measured by trade balance (net export). Findings & value added: It was proved that increasing trade openness and relative demand, as well as decreasing relative unit labour costs have a positive impact on international competitiveness of the food industry worldwide. However, the nature of the relationship between relative labour productivity and trade balance appears to be ambiguous. A stronger impact of the examined factors on net exports in the long-run rather than the short-run was also evidenced. The novelty of our analysis is that we consider trade balance determinants of the food industry worldwide using panel models, whereas most of the existing studies focus either on one or a narrow group of countries.

The spread of COVID-19 has had a signifi cant impact on economic and social activities, with the agri-food sector being no exception. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, numerous studies investigating its sectoral infl uence have been carried out, putting emphasis on demand and supply shocks and changes in trade volumes. However, there has not been much research into the implications of the pandemic for prices. To fi ll the research gap, this paper is an attempt to examine the impact of COVID-19 on producer prices in the EU-27 in Q2 and Q3 of 2020. The study is based on monthly data on trade in agri-food commodities according to the SITC classifi cation in 2015-2020 and the monthly producer prices index of food (2015 = 100) in the EU countries. It was assumed that the agri-food trade balance is the key factor determining the level and changes of domestic prices. The theoretical background for empirical research is provided by a spatial partial equilibrium model and the concept of spatial market integration. The results of the study reveal that there is a negative and statistically signifi cant relationship between an export-import ratio (which illustrates the country’s self-suffi ciency level) in the pre-COVID-19 period and price changes in Q2 of 2020 as well as Q3 of 2020. However, no statistically signifi cant results were obtained for the regression models explaining the relationship between changes in the export/import ratio and price changes in second and third quarters of 2020.

The paper aims to evaluate the implications of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for the strength and nature of the integration of Ukrainian grain markets with world markets. The empirical research is based on the theoretical foundations of spatial market integration and the spatial market...

The main purpose of this study is to assess the farm-level economic consequences of the planned introduction of a ban on farrowing crates for sows in the EU pig sector, being a response by the European Commission to the ‘End the Cage Age’ Initiative. The impact assessment was carried out in three stages: farm-level analyses based on 225 farm surveys carried out in EU member states and expert consultations, assessments for five alternative scenarios, and the aggregation (scaling-up) of the scenario analysis to the EU-27 sectoral impact. Our findings indicate that the ban on farrowing crates is expected to cause a decrease in the sow population by 21–23%, depending on the scenario, and piglet output in the EU owing to increased sow space requirements, a reduction in production efficiency, and a significant demand for investments. The transition to alternative farrowing systems will lead to increased variable costs related to the farrowing period, namely, veterinary expenses, labour costs, and sow feed costs, as well as expenses associated with higher piglet mortality and increased sow replacement rates. The lower density, resulting from the larger space allowance per sow in free-farrowing systems (approximately 5.5 m² in free farrowing with temporary confinement and 7 m² in systems without confinement) will also cause fixed costs per unit (per sow or piglet) to rise in proportion to the decline in the sow herd. Expressed as a percentage of the total production costs per piglet, we can expect a 6–10% increase in the total production costs. The implementation of free-farrowing systems on pig farms will necessitate investments in the modernisation of the existing buildings and new pens for sows. Depending on the scenario, the value of investments ranged from 3.8 to 6.7 billion EUR, at 2021 prices. It should be recognised that beyond the actual improvement in the welfare of sows, there are lingering concerns, including increased production costs, higher piglet mortality rates, and heightened risks to employees. It is essential to consider providing financial assistance to support farms in making a smooth transition to the new systems, as well as an extended transition period to ensure a painless shift.