The paper aims to evaluate the implications of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for the strength and nature of the integration of Ukrainian grain markets with world markets. The empirical research is based on the theoretical foundations of spatial market integration and the spatial market...

Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has led to profound disruptions in local and global agri-food markets. Since Ukraine is one of the world’s largest maize exporters, the war also contributed to considerable changes in trade reallocation, as well as an increase in the significance of the European Union in Ukrainian exports. This study analyses the effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on horizontal maize price transmission between Ukraine and the EU countries. The panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was applied to investigate the impact of the war on the price pass-through between those countries. The econometric analysis was performed on a weekly feed maize export price series for Ukraine and 14 selected EU countries. The time frame of research, January 2019 to December 2024, was split into pre-war and war periods. The study indicates that with the outbreak of the war, the long-term relationship between Ukraine and the EU’s maize prices has weakened. At the same time, there was an increase in the short-run maize price transmission between Ukraine and the Eastern EU countries. This proves that in the face of the conflict, market participants in these countries are increasingly guided by the market situation in Ukraine when making economic decisions.

Kukurydza należy do najważniejszych zbóż paszowych i przemysłowych w świecie a jednym z kluczowych producentów i eksporterów kukurydzy w świecie staje się Ukraina. Celem opracowania była ocena uwarunkowań zmian produkcji kukurydzy na Ukrainie w kontekście uwarunkowań wewnętrznych i globalnych. W pracy charakteryzowano zmiany produkcji, zużycia oraz cen w Ukrainie na tle ich odpowiedników w świecie. W świetle badań wykazano, że ma miejsce wzrost integracji ukraińskiego rynku kukurydzy z rynkami światowymi. Zjawisku temu sprzyjał wzrost popytu na kukurydzę na rynkach światowych spowodowany rozwojem produkcji biopaliw oraz relatywnie niskie koszty produkcji zbóż na Ukrainie.

The paper aims to evaluate the implications of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for the strength and nature of the integration of Ukrainian grain markets with world markets. The empirical research is based on the theoretical foundations of spatial market integration and the spatial market equilibrium model. According to them, changes in the integration of Ukrainian and world wheat, corn, and barley markets are evaluated via fluctuations in trade flow volumes, changes in trade costs and price co-movement. To analyze trade implications, monthly trade flow volumes, trade shares, and trade concentration measures during the conflict were compared with expected values assuming no war. To evaluate the implications of the conflict for trade costs, the authors analyzed differences between Ukrainian and world grain prices. Relying on the weekly price series, the price co-movement was assessed using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Granger instantaneous causality test. The results show that the strength of the integration of Ukrainian grain markets with world markets has deteriorated due to the conflict. It is confirmed by the decrease in the grain export volumes from Ukraine, the increase in price differences, and the lack of significant price transmission between Ukrainian and global grain markets since the war outbreak in February 2022. Moreover, the nature of the market integration has changed. One can observe a growing role of the European Union countries in the Ukrainian grain export share and changes in the Ukrainian grain export concentration. Such behaviour is in line with the theoretical foundation of the spatial market equilibrium model and theory of international integration.