Global grain production faces severe risks and challenges, such as the complex and volatile international situation and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events. The effectiveness of national policies intended to support grain production security is becoming increasingly important. China has implemented a range of policies to promote grain production and increase the incomes of grain farmers. This study constructed a policy quantification model using a content analysis method to quantitatively analyze the various grain production support policies issued by the Chinese government. The application of sensitivity models and the difference-in-differences model to study the spatial response of China’s grain production to these policies enabled an assessment of the future policy trends of China, with the aim of enhancing grain production security. Grain production in the main grain-producing areas (MGPAs) responded best to the policy, the grain production–marketing-balanced areas (GPMBAs) were the second most responsive, and the main grain-marketing areas (MGMAs) responded to the policy to a lesser extent. The direct grain subsidy policy significantly contributed to an increase in grain production, especially in the MGPAs. The results of the study suggest that it would be more prudent for China’s future grain policy to guide the centralization of grain production toward the MGPAs. It will also be necessary to ensure that the government’s various support policies and subsidy funds are inclined toward the MGPAs, and the compensation mechanism should be improved to serve the interests of the MGPAs in terms of resources, ecology, and economy. This will help to enhance the comprehensive production capacity and production efficiency of the MGPAs, thereby guaranteeing China’s food security.

Targeted poverty alleviation is a major national initiative in China. The Hotan region, located within the four prefectures of Southern Xinjiang, is one of the 14 contiguous poverty-stricken areas in China as well as a quintessential inland arid zone. Water scarcity is the primary constraint on development in the Hotan region and a major bottleneck for Northwest China as a whole. However, previous assessments of the effectiveness of poverty alleviation measures have primarily focused on industrial growth itself, lacking an analysis of the adaptability between key regional resource elements and industrial poverty alleviation measures. The core of promoting targeted poverty alleviation in arid regions is properly managing the relationships within the “industry–water resources” system and achieving a balance between resource use, environmental capacity, and economic development. Focusing on the coordinated development of industry and water resources, this study evaluates the spatio-temporal evolution of the industry–water resource relationships in the Hotan region after the implementation of the targeted poverty alleviation policy with the aim of measuring the sustainability of industrial poverty alleviation outcomes in this arid region. The results indicate the following: (1) The targeted poverty alleviation policy has reduced industrial water consumption. Following the policy’s implementation, industrial water consumption decreased by 541 million m³, driven by improvements in water use intensity and shifts in the industrial structure. The primary contributor to this reduction was enhanced water use efficiency within the primary sector. (2) The policy exacerbated the misallocation of water resources relative to industrial output across the region. The Gini coefficient for water resources versus GDP across Hotan’s eight counties and cities rose from 0.26 to 0.32, indicating a shift from a ‘relatively balanced’ to a ‘moderately imbalanced’ allocation. Therefore, achieving sustainable poverty alleviation in this arid region necessitates enhanced coordination between industrial development and water resources.