Climate change impacts are non uniformly distributed over the globe. Mountains have a peculiar response to large scale variations, documented by elevation gradients of surface temperature increase observed over many mountain ranges in the last decades. Significant changes of precipitation are expected in the changing climate and orographic effects are important in determining the amount of rainfall at a given location. It thus becomes particularly important to understand how orographic precipitation responds to global warming and to anthropogenic forcing. Here, using a large rain gauge dataset over the European Alpine region, we show that the distribution of annual precipitation among the lowlands and the mountains has varied over time, with an increase of the precipitation at the high elevations compared to the low elevations starting in the mid 20 century and peaking in the 1980s. The simultaneous increase and peak of anthropogenic aerosol load is discussed as a possible source for this interdecadal change. These results provide new insights to further our understanding and improve predictions of anthropic effects on mountain precipitations, which are fundamental for water security and management.
Many cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have been developed in the past to study the climatology of extratropical cyclones. However, all CDTMs have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This naturally leads to cyclone track climatologies with inconsistent physical characteristics. More than that, it is typical for CDTMs to produce a non-negligible number of tracks of weak atmospheric features, which do not correspond to large-scale or mesoscale vortices and can differ significantly between CDTMs. Lack of consensus in CDTM outputs and the inclusion of significant numbers of uncertain tracks therein have long prohibited the production of a commonly accepted reference dataset of extratropical cyclone tracks. Such a dataset could allow comparable results on the analysis of storm track climatologies and could also contribute to the evaluation and improvement of CDTMs. To cover this gap, we present a new methodological approach that combines overlapping tracks from different CDTMs and produces composite tracks that concentrate the agreement of more than one CDTM. In this study we apply this methodology to the outputs of 10 well-established CDTMs which were originally applied to ERA5 reanalysis in the 42-year period of 1979–2020. We tested the sensitivity of our results to the spatiotemporal criteria that identify overlapping cyclone tracks, and for benchmarking reasons, we produced five reference datasets of subjectively tracked cyclones. Results show that climatological numbers of composite tracks are substantially lower than the ones of individual CDTMs, while benchmarking scores remain high (i.e., counting the number of subjectively tracked cyclones captured by the composite tracks). Our results show that composite tracks tend to describe more intense and longer-lasting cyclones with more distinguished early, mature and decay stages than the cyclone tracks produced by individual CDTMs. Ranking the composite tracks according to their confidence level (defined by the number of contributing CDTMs), it is shown that the higher the confidence level, the more intense and long-lasting cyclones are produced. Given the advantage of our methodology in producing cyclone tracks with physically meaningful and distinctive life stages, we propose composite tracks as reference datasets for climatological research in the Mediterranean. The Supplement provides the composite Mediterranean tracks for all confidence levels, and in the conclusion we discuss their adequate use for scientific research and applications.
Tropical cyclones generate a large and wide cold wake along their trajectories, which conditions the subsequent evolution of the tropical cyclone themselves. The cold wakes persist for weeks, impacting both the upper ocean, the air‐sea fluxes, and the atmosphere. The study by Z. Ma et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088873) for the first time analyzes a composite of remotely sensed data sets to show that cold wakes modify surface winds and reduce cloud coverage and rainfall. These results contribute to shedding light on the mechanisms at the origin of the air‐sea feedbacks, which can differ at different latitudes depending on the stability of the marine atmospheric boundary layer. The work stimulates further research to assess whether the cloud cover anomalies induced by tropical cyclones significantly modify the radiative budget of the Earth.
The semi-enclosed Mediterranean basin, surrounded by high mountains, is placed in a favorable location for cyclonic storms development. Most of these are extratropical cyclones of baroclinic and orographic origin, but occasionally, some low pressure systems may develop to assume features characteristic of tropical cyclones. Medicanes (MEDIterranean hurriCANES) are infrequent and small-sized tropical-like cyclones. They originate and develop over sea, and are associated with strong winds and heavy precipitations. Proper definitions and classifications for Medicanes are still partially lacking, and systematic climatic studies have appeared only in recent years. In this work, we provide climatologies of Medicanes in the Western Mediterranean basin based on multidecadal runs performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting regional model with different resolutions and setups. The detection of Medicanes is based on a cyclone tracking algorithm and on the methodology of Hart cyclone phase space diagrams. We compare the statistics of Medicanes in the historical period 1979–1998 between runs at a resolution of 11 km with different convective parameterizations and microphysics schemes and one run at a resolution of 4 km with explicitly resolved convection. We show how different convective parameterization schemes lead to different statistics of Medicanes, while the use of different microphysical schemes impacts the length of the cyclone trajectories.
Centennial-scale variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the absence of external forcing has been identified in several climate models, but proposed mechanisms differ considerably. Therefore, better understanding of processes governing AMOC variability at these timescales is needed. Here, we analyze numerical simulations with PlaSim-LSG, an Earth System Model Intermediate Complexity (EMIC), which exhibits strong multicentennial oscillations of AMOC strength under constant pre-industrial boundary conditions. We identify a novel mechanism in which these oscillations are driven by salinity anomalies from the Arctic Ocean, which can be attributed to changes in high-latitude precipitation. We further corroborate our findings by conducting a set of millennial-length sensitivity experiments, and we interpret the mechanism by formulating a three-box model which qualitatively reproduces regular oscillations of the AMOC. While PlaSim-LSG lacks complexity compared to state-of-the-art models, our results reveal that precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) change in the Arctic is a physically plausible driver of centennial-scale AMOC variability. We discuss how this mechanism might be most relevant in climate states warmer than the present-day, raising questions about the state-dependence of multicentennial AMOC variability.