We present the second update to a data set of gridded land‐based temperature and precipitation extremes indices: HadEX3. This consists of 17 temperature and 12 precipitation indices derived from daily, in situ observations and recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). These indices have been calculated at around 7,000 locations for temperature and 17,000 for precipitation. The annual (and monthly) indices have been interpolated on a 1.875°×1.25° longitude‐latitude grid, covering 1901–2018. We show changes in these indices by examining ”global”‐average time series in comparison with previous observational data sets and also estimating the uncertainty resulting from the nonuniform distribution of meteorological stations. Both the short and long time scale behavior of HadEX3 agrees well with existing products. Changes in the temperature indices are widespread and consistent with global‐scale warming. The extremes related to daily minimum temperatures are changing faster than the maximum. Spatial changes in the linear trends of precipitation indices over 1950–2018 are less spatially coherent than those for temperature indices. Globally, there are more heavy precipitation events that are also more intense and contribute a greater fraction to the total. Some of the indices use a reference period for calculating exceedance thresholds. We present a comparison between using 1961–1990 and 1981–2010. The differences between the time series of the temperature indices observed over longer time scales are shown to be the result of the interaction of the reference period with a warming climate. The gridded netCDF files and, where possible, underlying station indices are available from www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadex3 and www.climdex.org.
In the West African Sahel, two paradoxical hydrological behaviors have occurred during the last five decades. The first paradox was observed during the 1968–1990s ‘Great Drought’ period, during which runoff significantly increased. The second paradox appeared during the subsequent period of rainfall recovery (i.e., since the 1990s), during which the runoff coefficient continued to increase despite the general re-greening of the Sahel. This paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on the drivers of these paradoxical behaviors, focusing on recent works in the West African Sahelo/Sudanian strip, and upscaling the hydrological processes through an analysis of recent data from two representative areas of this region. This paper helps better determine the respective roles played by Land Use/Land Cover Changes (LULCC), the evolution of rainfall intensity and the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in these hydrological paradoxes. Both the literature review and recent data converge in indicating that the first Sahelian hydrological paradox was mostly driven by LULCC, while the second paradox has been caused by both LULCC and climate evolution, mainly the recent increase in rainfall intensity.
Analyzing trends of annual rainfall and assessing the impacts of these trends on the hydrological regime are crucial in the context of climate change and increasing water use. This research investigates the recent trend of hydroclimatic variables in the Senegal River basin based on 36 rain gauge stations and three hydrometric stations not influenced by hydraulic structures. The Man Kendall and Pettitt’s tests were applied for the annual rainfall time series from 1940 to 2013 to detect the shift and the general trend of the annual rainfall. In addition, trends of average annual flow rate (AAFR), maximum daily flow (MADF), and low flow rate (LFR) were evaluated before and after annual rainfall shift. The results show that the first shift is situated on average at 1969 whereas the second one is at 1994. While the first shift is very consistent between stations (between 1966 and 1972), there is a significant dispersion of the second change-point between 1984 and 2002. After the second shift (1994), an increase of annual rainfall is noticed compared to the previous period (1969–1994) which indicates a not significant, partial rainfall recovery at the basin level. The relative changes of hydrologic variables differ based on the variables and the sub-basin. Relative changes before and after first change-point are significantly negative for all variables. The highest relative changes are observed for the AAFR. Considering the periods before and second shifts, the relative changes are mainly significantly positive except for the LFR.
The West African Sahel has been facing for more than 30 years an increase in extreme rainfall with strong socio-economic impacts. This situation challenges decision-makers to define adaptation strategies in a rapidly changing climate. The present study proposes (i) a quantitative characterization of the trends in extreme rainfall at the regional scale, (ii) the translation of the trends into metrics that can be used by hydrological risk managers, (iii) elements for understanding the link between the climatology of extreme and mean rainfall. Based on a regional non-stationary statistical model applied to in-situ daily rainfall data over the period 1983–2015, we show that the region-wide increasing trend in extreme rainfall is highly significant. The change in extreme value distribution reflects an increase in both the mean and variability, producing a 5%/decade increase in extreme rainfall intensity whatever the return period. The statistical framework provides operational elements for revising the design methods of hydraulic structures which most often assume a stationary climate. Finally, the study shows that the increase in annual maxima of daily rainfall is more attributable to stronger storm intensities (80%) than to more frequent storm occurrences (20%), reflecting a major rainfall regime shift in comparison to those observed in the region since 1950.
Extreme climate events, either being linked to dry spells or extreme precipitation, are of major concern in Africa, a region in which the economy and population are highly vulnerable to climate hazards. However, recent trends in climate events are not often documented in this poorly surveyed continent. This study makes use of a large set of daily rain gauge data covering Southern West Africa (extending from 10° W to 10° E and from 4° N to 12° N) from 1950 to 2014. The evolution of the number and the intensity of daily rainfall events, especially the most extremes, were analyzed at the annual and seasonal scales. During the first rainy season (April–July), mean annual rainfall is observed to have a minor trend due to less frequent but more intense rainfall mainly along the coast of Southern West Africa (SWA) over the last two decades. The north–south seasonal changes exhibit an increase in mean annual rainfall over the last decade during the second rainy season (September–November) linked by both an increase in the frequency of occurrence of rainy days as well as an increase in the mean intensity and extreme events over the last decade. The study also provides evidence of a disparity that exists between the west and east of SWA, with the east recording a stronger increase in the mean intensity of wet days and extreme rainfall during the second rainy season (September–November).