This work proposes a backtesting analysis that compares the Lee–Carter and the Cairns–Blake–Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975–2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models compared with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus medium-length ones. We find that neither model was able to capture the improving shock on mortality observed for the male population on the analysed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecasts are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecasts are basically more accurate for this data.

The accelerated growth of older adults (the over-65s) in Italy fits within the context of the complex, hybrid nature of the pension system and the welfare benefits financed by tax revenues, which often overlap. As a result, older adults are experiencing growing inequalities in living and health conditions across the three Italian macro-areas (the North, Centre, and South and Islands), as well as between genders. This study aims to examine the sustained growth of older adults in Italy, with a particular emphasis on their most vulnerable segment—i.e., the over-85s. Drawing on mortality trends and the consequent increases in life expectancy at advanced ages, through indicators of mortality and life expectancy, the analysis explores how variations in the structure and distribution of pension benefits have produced significant territorial disparities. These disparities have, in turn, contributed to widening inequalities in household living conditions, especially regarding access to social assistance and long-term care services.

The accelerated growth of older adults (the over-65s) in Italy fits within the context of the complex, hybrid nature of the pension system and the welfare benefits financed by tax revenues, which often overlap. As a result, older adults are facing growing inequalities in living and health conditions, both in the Centre-North and the Southern regions, as well as between genders. Through differential analyses, this paper aims to illustrate the progressive increase in older adults, focussing on their most vulnerable component (i.e. the over-85s), especially concerning social assistance and care issues. Our study considers the current characteristics of social ageing and mortality trends that determine older adults’ growth and number, highlighting the pronounced gender disparities that emerge at older ages. Our findings reveal an ongoing process of change that has led to significant territorial disparities in the types of pension benefits and social allowances. This has exacerbated, in turn, inequalities in living conditions across households and between genders.

This paper examines the geography of frail ageing in Italy by analysing how longevity, health conditions, non-self-sufficiency and assistance needs intersect across territories. Its distinctive contribution lies in moving beyond a purely demographic reading of population ageing, linking the extension of life to the quality of later-life survival and to the uneven territorial distribution of public assistance. Drawing on official data from Istat, Eurostat and INPS, this study adopts a regional comparative approach, with evidence disaggregated by sex, age group and macro-area. The analysis combines indicators of demographic structure, residual life expectancy at age 65, healthy life expectancy, severe limitations in daily activities, multimorbidity and assistance benefits. This framework makes it possible to distinguish between ageing as a numerical increase in the older population and ageing as a differentiated condition of vulnerability, dependency and welfare need. The findings show that Italy’s high longevity conceals marked territorial and gender inequalities. While the centre–north displays more favourable survival and health profiles, the south and the islands have higher levels of frailty, functional limitations and reliance on public assistance. Women appear to be particularly exposed to this imbalance, living longer but spending more years in conditions of disability and dependency.

The work proposes a backtesting analysis in comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975-2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models in comparisons with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus medium-length ones. We find that both models were not able to capture the improving shock on the mortality observed for the male population on the analyzed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecast are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecast are basically more accurate for this data.

The increase in life expectancy is generally associated with greater lifespan equality, but this is not always true, especially among the elderly, as seen in the case we are examining. This is what we show in this research through the reconstruction of a series of life tables for the oldest-old from the cohorts born between 1890 and 1919, starting from age 85. To date, only the 1890–1911 cohorts can be considered extinct, so the study of the sex-based mortality gap focuses on these cohorts, while all cohorts are considered in the study of age-at-death disparities. Both absolute and relative standard statistical measures were used as indicators, highlighting inconsistencies between absolute and relative measures in this final section of cohort life tables. Our findings reveal an evolution of mortality characterized by cohort effects, especially among older cohorts and to an overall decline in the mortality occurring in the context of two different ageing patterns for the two sexes. The outcomes not only show an increasing mortality male excess in, but also significant disparities in the average inter-individual differences in lifespan.