This work proposes a backtesting analysis that compares the Lee–Carter and the Cairns–Blake–Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975–2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models compared with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus medium-length ones. We find that neither model was able to capture the improving shock on mortality observed for the male population on the analysed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecasts are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecasts are basically more accurate for this data.

We investigate the reaction of Italian Members of Parliament to a rigorous fact-checking of their public statements. Our research design relies on a novel randomized field experiment in collaboration with the leading Italian fact-checking company. Our results show that politicians are responsive to negative fact-checking. Specifically, we observe a significative reduction in the number of incorrect statements made by politicians after being treated. This effect persists for at least two months. We also observe a reduction in the probability of politicians making verifiable statements, suggesting that fact-checking may also increase the ambiguity of politicians’ statements.

The work proposes a backtesting analysis in comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975-2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models in comparisons with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus medium-length ones. We find that both models were not able to capture the improving shock on the mortality observed for the male population on the analyzed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecast are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecast are basically more accurate for this data.

We use data on Italian municipal elections from 1993 to 2009 to provide evidence on the role of social capital in explaining civic engagement measured through electoral turnout. We first show that an exogenous increase in the cost of voting—due to rainfall on election day—has a negative and significant impact on voters' participation. However, we also find that a sufficiently high level of social capital—that we proxy with the percentage of blood donations at provincial level—is enough to attenuate the cost of voting induced by adverse weather conditions. We interpret this as evidence that non-instrumental factors, like individual sense of civic duty and intrinsic motivations, play a non-negligible role in explaining electoral turnout.